Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace
In glancing around, their model generally shows that everyone will level off by June. I assume that it's all based on social distancing rather than heat effects, which aren't well known.
The Bill Gates TED interview helped me wrap my mind around it a bit. Exponential growth is highly volatile, so if R0 > 1, it grows very, very rapidly. However, if we can get R0 < 1 due to social distancing, it shrinks very, very rapidly. So that's really all we're trying to do with social distancing - shrink R0 as much as possible.
Once we get it under control (hopefully with dramatically increased access to testing), we can start slowly easing back restrictions. Cases go up? Restrictions go back into place. Cases stay low? Restrictions can be eased. It'll be a dance while we continue to learn more and refine the approach and treatments.
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Well said. And, I wish every American (and every human) understood and would do EVERYTHING they can to make the bold become reality. I know many people feel helpless in this. They aren't. We can't kill this bug yet, but we can take away its "purpose." It isn't intelligent. It isn't even alive. All of us are the latter. In the words of MJK, do what it takes to step through, people.