Thread: News ***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:49 PM   #13019
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I agree with most of your analysis here, except that you have omitted consideration that most US cases are in early stages, due to exponential growth of the number of cases.
If you look at confirmed cases from the 22nd (33,592) and consider that only 10% of the cases are discovered, the calculation yields a CRF of 0.006 (0.6%), which I consider my (NOT AN EXPERT) lower bound of the CFR.

This refers to the "true" CFR, accounting for all cases, not just confirmed cases.
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