Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
Recent flu seasons have seen CFRs close to .2, I wouldn't be surprised to see Covid-19 come in around the .2 - .5 range. We won't know accurate numbers for quite awhile (if ever).
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This post isn't to disagree with yours, but just to provide additional context to the discussion.
CFR, R0, and all of the other epidemiologic parameters depend on so many things not related to the virus. R0 depends on how much social distancing is being practiced, probably population density, social customs, etc. CFR depends on the age demographics of the population, sex, blood type, and quality of medical care. So far the virus has hit hardest in economically developed countries. I think once the virus hits a high population density, economically disadvantaged area the outcome will be tragic. The one thing going for them is that the age demographics of most such areas are skewed toward younger populations.