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The economy isn't turning around until there's a feeling we're ahead of this thing. Doesn't matter if there's a shutdown or not. In fact it could be worse because it'll feel like it's everyone for themselves and people will really be hoarding stuff and still not going to restaurants because there's no confidence anyone who is sick is being isolated, etc.
Then you add in the workforce losses due to illness. This thing was always going to tank the economy. You can't just say oh we need a 2 week shutdown, or a 4 week shutdown. You have to see how it develops. But as long as it feels like things are going downhill it isn't going to be pretty.
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