Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis
A) Those numbers don't match what is coming out of John Hopkins
B) If the rate of increase holds steady (+~38% today from John Hopkins stats), we'll hit 60K by Tuesday
C) Those numbers are only for those tested, actual numbers will be much higher (but much lower severity, on average)
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From Nate Silver:
For the time being, 1) the large (perhaps very large) majority of coronavirus positives are undetected and 2) test capacity is ramping up at extremely fast rates, far faster than coronavirus itself would spread even under worst-case assumptions.
So long as those two things hold, the rate of increase in the number of *detected* cases is primarily a function of the rate of increase in the number of *tests* and does not tell us that much about how fast the actual *infection* is spreading