Quote:
Originally Posted by FAX
In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.
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Incredibly wrong and irresponsible.
Edit: For clarification, from the article: "Using the best-fitting model (Table 1 and Fig. 1), we estimated 13,118 (95% CI: 2,974–23,435) total new COVID-19 infections (documented and undocumented combined) during 10–23 January in Wuhan city. Further, 86.2% (95% CI: 81.5%–89.8%) of all infections were infected from undocumented cases. Nationwide, the total number of infections during 10–23 January was 16,829 (95% CI: 3,797–30,271) with 86.2% (95% CI: 81.6%–89.8%) infected by undocumented cases."
Those numbers form the basis for this Bayesian simulation. Nothing even close to 100,000, let alone ten million. We may ultimately find out that there is some incredibly high R0 for this virus and it just lies dormant in (literally) 99.9% of all who contract it (no data support this), but that is NOT what the cited article suggests.