Quote:
Originally Posted by wazu
Your 50X number is in the ballpark. Influenza is something like .1% death rate. COVID-19 is looking more like 3%-6.5%. It also seems to be exponentially worse for old people, so for younger people it would be much lower.
There's a possibility that death rate won't be that bad long term. It sounds like most of the dead in china are elderly men who smoked most of their lives. Smoking rates are lower in other countries. That said, so far we don't have any evidence in the U.S. that the death rate will be lower.
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It's certainly likely that this virus is higher than the flu, but there's no way in hell the actual rate is 3% or higher.