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Admittedly poorly; Betts is a much more valuable property than Goldschmidt.
You're right that Machado was the better comp, even as a mid-season trade. That said, I thought the return on Machado was really poor. The Orioles took quantity over quality and in the end I'd be surprised to see any of those guys be genuine impact players. It wouldn't shock me if none of them ended up a starter or if 2 or 3 of them never saw significant big league action.
I don't the Red Sox will accept that kind of return. Nor do I think there are too many teams out there that are still dumb enough to overpay for a single year of a player like John Mozeliak.
Because truly that is all you're getting in that deal - 1 year. The Red Sox aren't getting 2 top 25 prospects (I suspect Carlson and Gorman break that threshold this offseason) and a guy in Flaherty who is MORE valuable than any top 25 prospect due to his major league performance for a single year.
They may get 1 top 25 guy, another pitcher in Weaver's class and then a high potential guy with a less critical role.
So had the Cardinals not gutted their depth in the ill-fated Goldschmidt deal they could offer something like Gorman, Hudson and Fernandez. But with Weaver gone and Kelly not being around to try to backfill the rotation/depth losses of Hudson/Fernandez, I don't think the Cardinals could even afford to do THAT.
And I don't think the Red Sox will get an appreciably better offer unless a team like the Dodgers just decides that they want to burn some powder up and move Lux.
And the really interesting thing is that the Dodgers might be smart to do it given that they have Seager at SS and Bellinger's long-term future probably isn't best served in CF.
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