[Otter]

First off, I'm going to begin this blog by stating that I don't have any intentions on changing anyone's mind about the NFL. Nor am I trying to start an argument about who is right and who is wrong.

I already know everyone's argument of "It takes too many people to rig a game", and the all time classic with no viable facts, "They make too much money, why would they jeopardize it?" Arguing about the nature of such things is like arguing about religion and politics. There is no point.

I'm just going to point out several observations I have made over the last few years about the NFL and state my case for why I think the NFL fixes their own games for profit. So if you are already on the defensive ready to discredit all of the evidence I am about display without actually bringing up facts that go against my arguments (like a normal discussion should be) then move on.

So if you have any documented facts, I would like to hear them. If you agree with me afterwards great, if you don't that's cool too, follow me on Twitter @shark702 and we can continue the discussion there. But again, let's talk, not insult each other. If you are the type of person who hates being lied to, was upset to find out as a kid that Santa wasn't real and that WWE is fake than please read on and I would love to hear your opinions.

OK, so if you are ready to take the Red Pill, let's see how deep the rabbit hole goes...

I've been handicapping the NFL for about 10 years now using mathematical analysis of teams, point spreads, specific outcomes and algebra, specifically relating to the calculation of probability where P(X=K)=(n/k)P^k(q)(n-k) and (n/k) = n!/k!(n-k)!, accounting for injuries, and incorporating Power Ratings which I developed from a simple Grade Scale A-F with the best NFL team receiving an A and the worst receiving an F. I was able to amass several consistent 60% ATS betting seasons. This process I found to be long and arduous and caused me great mental stress after a certain period of time.

But one day, during the 2009 season, something happened that changed it all. Now I've had my share of bad beats up until then. Some of these bad beats were too good to be true i.e The Tuck Rule Game. Several coincidences happened that just seemed to good to be true. The New England Patriots post 9/11 run, the Saints erasing 40 years of negative football history post Katrina, the Manning Families dynasty, just to name a few.

Now if you believe in random coincidence that's fine, but when they happen on multiple occasions over and over and over than it's time to do a little research. Ralph Waldo Emerson once said "Shallow men believe in Luck, strong men believe in cause and effect".

So during a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Diego Chargers the Steelers were favored by 3. Nearly 70 percent of the betting public was on Pittsburgh, with a reported $100 million in potential earnings. The score with less than a minute to go, 11-10 Pittsburgh and SD with the ball. After an errant lateral gets knocked away by Troy Polamalu, he scoops it and scores. The score is now 17-10, there is no time left, all teams head to the locker room, fans go to cash their tickets.

After several minutes of debate, the refs overturn the call, restoring a meaningless TD off the board making the final score 11-10, the Steelers win, the public loses. What I found to be most odd about it is the league's explanation of a "forward pass". The pass was ruled forward although it is obvious it was a backwards lateral. When I got home, I starting thinking that things were just to good to be true.

Sportscenter reported the money lost in Vegas and almost joked about it. They were literally laughing. So after this bad beat, I held around some serious thoughts about the legitimacy of pro football.

An opportunity came up in my graduate school where I was to write my project on any topic I was to choose. So I chose researching the "Showbiz manipulations of the NFL". I picked up several books including Dan Moldea's "Interference: How Organized Crimes Influence Professional Football", Brian Touhy's "The Fix Is In" , Roger L. Martins "Fixing the Game". I checked out several TV Marketing books from the college library and also several TV Business books.

I utilized my rights under the Freedom of Information Act passed by President Lyndon Johnson in 1966 to access over 40 years of FBI files on the NFL although some information was redacted. Here's what I found:

1. Contrary to popular belief and to what he NFL wants you to think, there have been fixed games in league history. On page 308 of Dan Moldea's book "Interference" he lists over 70 NFL games that have been fixed and includes the names of the 2 referees involved in fixing those games. He also lists interviews with NFL HOF players most notably KC Chiefs QB Len Dawson. He, in detail with documented facts supported by FBI documents, has interviews with NFL players and known gambling associates to uncover massive game fixing in the league. He also notes, with evidence, throughout the book that no fewer than 26 NFL team owners have or have had continuous and developing relationships with the gambling world, most notably the Rooney, Bidwill, and Mara families all getting their starts as Bookmakers for established mid-west crime families and buying their NFL franchises with moneys earned from gambling. So that in and of itself is a hypocrisy number 1 on the NFL's "lilly white" reputation.

NFL Referees are part-time employees of the NFL. They are not employees of any team nor do they get paid anywhere close to the sums of NBA refs. NFL refs make between $25K to $70K per season. They work for the league and do what the league tells them to do. They are not there for "the integrity of the game". Referees, unlike other sports, are bound by NFL mandated gag orders which prevent them from talking to the media.

2. The NFL possesses an Anti-Trust Exemption to the law granted to it by President John F. Kennedy, which ultimately allows the NFL to classify itself as "entertainment" rather than sport, as well as incorporate itself as a single entity instead of the 32 separate "franchises" they would want you to believe. Contrary to the perception of the NFL being 32 separate franchises battling it out for gridiron supremacy. In a franchised environment, such as McDonalds (Business 101), each franchise is individually owned and operated and can participate in national promotions, have its own local promotions, or abstain from participating (hence the fine print in commercials saying "at participating locations".

This keeps the regionality of competition in tact without having to compete on a national level. MLB has this status, the NFL does not. Instead, since the NFL has this Anti-Trust exemption, it is able to package its teams in order to sell to national television companies, which today totals $6 Billion in revenue for the league. That is 75% of the leagues total annual revenue. In a 2004 lawsuit vs the NFL, the NFL attorney Gregg H. Levy argued that "the NFL is not a collection of 32 individual teams, but rather a single entity. And as long as the NFL teams are a unit, and they compete as a unit in the entertainment marketplace, then they should be deemed a single unit and not subject to any Anti-Trust laws."

There is only another "sports" organization that I can think of that follows this, the WWE. Levy also argued that the league markets its products and merchandise as a whole to promote the NFL as a whole. These arguments led all the way to lockout during the 2011 offseason. The league would still earn $5 Billion in revenue, even without a single game being played.

Professional sports is the only industry without ANY federal oversight. Therefore the league can do and go as they see fit, this is something the players were concerned about going into the lockout, the NFL players themselves sought help from US Congress asking for oversight of the NFL. And NFL players wanted an explanation as to why the NFL owners were granted an Anti-Trust exemption in the first place. They didn't get it.

The NFL proved in this lawsuit that they see themselves as a single unit in the "entertainment" industry and the unique league revenue sharing strategy is not common amongst professional sports leagues.