Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
I thought Kelly was the best catching prospect in baseball. Plus you throw in a PH with pop off the bench. Is that the market value for 1 year of Donaldson?
I don't like giving up Reyes in any deal. Pitchers with #1 starter ceilings are hard to get, why give up one?
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Yeah, Kelly's probably the top catching prospect in baseball but that has more to do with his floor than his ceiling. Kelly's a defensive catching prospect; a guy that's absolutely going to be a major league starter someday, somewhere. So yes, he has value. But when you compare him to guys like Sanchez or Contreras before him and perhaps someone like Fransisco Mejia behind him, you see those guys as being more 'splash' prospects that carry more value. Kelly won't ever be an anchor tenant on a championship team, IMO; more of a 4th-5th best guy. I'd say you're looking at a Tucker Barnhart or Jason Castro kind of player rather than a Buster Posey. Those are nice players and clear starting caliber guys, but they're not guys you blow up a trade for an MVP caliber player for.
Worse still, Molina's going to be the C here for at least 2 more years so you diminish Kelly's value to the organization a little more. Finally, with Knizner showing the ability to perhaps be a premier offensive C prospect with a glove that will allow him to stay behind the plate, he makes Kelly a bit more disposable. Additionally, Donaldson appears to love it in Toronto and would likely be willing to extend there. The Jays could well want to build around him going forward with Bautista almost certainly gone. As for his 1 yr before FA, well that's why I'd want to get that window. Without an extension I don't think you can make the move if for no other reason than the fact that I think Gyorko is a very good player in his own right.
But the Cardinals have a decided lack of elite players on this roster and they need to get some. Donaldson could be that guy and he's fanatical enough about his conditioning that it's not impossible to see him be a Beltre type that ages well. With the Jays not really needing to move him and him not really desperate to be moved, the price is going to be a little higher. That all being said, I already acknowledged that it's not a slam-dunk move; but if you make that deal, this team is significantly better for the next 3 seasons and if Knizner is the real deal, there's little/no long-term harm done.
As for Reyes, we've already burned a year of service time there and he'll spend next year shaking rust off and getting back to form; I doubt he'll be in the rotation. So you're looking at 4 years of 'good' service time from him. With his TJ and the risk that the mechanical changes that gave him a velocity boost (thus spiked his value) also caused the elbow to let go, you have to reconsider his ceiling. Is he really a #1? Or will tweaks be needed to keep him healthy that give back some of that velocity and make him more of a good #2? Let's say for the sake of argument that he is a 1 - you'll get 4 years of him at below market before he's due big money in FA. Meanwhile you'd be getting 5 years of Yelich, who's probably among the top 15 OFers in baseball, at below market value in exchange.
If Reyes is going to be dealt, Yelich is the kind of player you deal him for. He's much lower risk, his ceiling might be just as high (Yelich is a 4-5 WAR player just entering his prime) and he's a perfect complementary part. I wouldn't want to make that deal if it isn't part of Stanton coming across as well, but if you get Stanton, then you easily make the Reyes/Yelich swap because it is at least even from a value for value standpoint while also making Stanton more productive.