Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
Are you sure about that? He's got a 4.83 FIP. He hasn't pitched all that well. His .225 babip suppresses his true ERA. It's about to jump up to FIP levels soon. He's another Jason Hammel or Ian Kennedy, this year anyway
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Nah.
Lynn's been a guy that pitches below his FIP and xFIP for a very long time now. His WHIP is low, his K rate is above average, his BB rate is below average. He's given up a lot of HRs due to an abnormally high HR/FB rate (and by 'abnormally high' I mean more than twice what one would expect). For any regression he sees in his BABIP, he'll get just as much regression in an impossibly high HR/FB rate - that's a trade I'd make without hesitation.
He's a good pitcher. Not a great one, but a good one. I'd take him over Mike Leake 100 times out of 100 and Leake got $80 million. He'll pass on the QO and get more than $50 million on the market.
And no, Jason Hammel blows. Ian Kennedy...eh, he might be Kennedy prior to his KC stint but Kennedy's been shittier in KC than Lynn.
There's not a good way to explain Lynn - he's just a weird duck. There aren't many guys that get away with throwing 80% fastballs and since that's how Lynn operates, I think he scrambles some metrics here and there. Especially since he's so lefty prone. I think he'd continue to beat his metrics anywhere you put him.