Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
You just kinda have to look at the history of 4th round picks and realize that the odds overwhelmingly suggest that the kid will pretty much be jack shit.
It's not until you sit down and look at the large numbers that you realize just how little 4th rounders and later tend to contribute. Yeah, you can find guys that do because there's a shitload of people picked in the 4th round and later but the percentages are staggering. You're talking about around 1 in 10 guys that become meaningful contributors. If you squint you could maybe get that to 1 in 5.
Do you look at Ehringer and see a better player than Pughsley? Do you see a guy that's likely to be one of the 5-6ish players taken in that round that truly matter?
"If X becomes the player we expect" is kinda the battle cry of the maligned general manager. It's kinda the 'if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle' of the NFL.
It's just been over the last couple of years that I really started looking at historical returns on late-round picks and realized that over large numbers, these guys really just rarely matter at all and when I see a guy that looks shockingly limited but was probably something of a coach's pick, I'm immediately very skeptical.
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Moreso, I think you can look at said players that hit and find that they come from pretty much the same handful of teams.
Hopefully Dorsey becomes one of those guys as he's shown to have a good eye for talent.
People malign Fulton but considering where he was oucked, that's a success. I'd like to see him take the lg spot