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Cap Space for 2020
Here are some cap figures for next year.
Current cap space to be rolled over to 2020 - $21 million Current cap space projected for 2020 - $1.6 million People who should be cut after this season. Their replacement in quotes. Sammy Watkins (Pringle/Hardman) - $14 million cap savings LDT (Wylie/Rankin) - $5 million cap savings Daniel Sorenson (literally anybody or Watts) - $3.75 million cap savings Cameron Erving (literally anybody) - $3.25 million cap savings Damien Williams (Thompson) - $2.3 million cap savings Dustin Colquitt (It's a punter...come on) - $1.35 million cap savings That's 6 cuts that we should have no problem finding a replacement for. Projected cap space for 2020 after cuts - $31 million We could add more by making Anthony Hitchens a June 1st cut. That would put his dead cap space in 2020 at $4.2 million and his cap savings at $8.5 million. It would only save us roughly $2 million in 2021 and then $11 million in 2022. I think he's overpaid but a decent #2 LB. So, if we roll over the cap space from this year, and with the 6 cuts, we should be at $52 million in cap space. We're obviously going to need that cap space for Mahomes but we will only have 2 CBs under contract (Ward and Fenton). We also will have 4 DEs under contract (Clark, Okafor, KPass and Speaks). I think some of that cap space should be to bring Ogbah back if it isn't a huge amount of money. |
Can count on 15+ of that space disappearing for incentive payouts from 2019 and the 2020 rookie class.
Don't think Ldt is getting released yet. Without a new CBA, June 1st cutting Hitchens won't be possible. They're probably looking at 20 in space without even doing anything with Chris Jones as of yet and that's without even approaching the subject of a Pat extension. Thank god this next draft class will have more corners because we can't afford to buy one. |
Where are you getting $15 million in incentives?
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Yeah, here's my long-ass review on that from a different thread:
Spoiler!
We're essentially seeing the same thing. There's not a lot of wiggle on this roster for next season at all. At best you're looking a a 40 man roster w/ $50 million in cap space and holes EVERYWHERE. And no Chris Jones. The 'work' Veach has done the last 2 offseasons has landed this team directly in a shitty cap situation and has yielded next to no positive returns. When Mathieu at about 40% more than you'd have needed to pay him a year prior is the BEST outcome of your recent ventures into big-money deals, you really need to reconsider your approach. Because Mathieu isn't even going to live up to his deal, let alone the other guys we've brought in. |
Veach’s offseason acquisitions were fine if you take out the 2 big deals. Actually HB isn’t bad considering he’s here 2 years and gets 1 big cap hit year.
Veach dug himself a hole but has pulled somewhat out of it with a contributing draft class with upside+acquisitions. More of that will make us just fine. Trade Sammy for a 3rd (or 4th, whatever you can get), trade Jones for at least a 2nd and use Jones projected money to extend lower cost players. Ogbah is absolutely a possibility to keep. He shouldn’t cost much now with his injury. Ward should not cost much. See if you can nab a corner like Chris Harris Jr. (who is still a plus player) for a fair price. Then start swinging away in the draft. For a LB, RB and lineman. Use as many mid rd picks on linemen as you can. You never know if a Chase Winovich or Charles Omenihu is your pick. Time to switch to the Seattle/Indy model |
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Basically I'm not anticipating a Pat extension for another year and Chris Jones is probably getting the tag and traded. They will have some space to add, but they will be basement bargain shopping. |
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His major misses the last 2 years have been massive parts of the storyline in the 2019 season as well as the single biggest impediments to improvement in 2020. Clark, Mathieu, Watkins and Hitchens (presuming Watkins is cut) will account for better than 1/4 of our salary cap next season. It's a full 1/3 if you toss Okafor in there. I'm sorry, but you cannot hand-waive that and say "yeah, but Ogbah!" He's done a lot more harm than good. |
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Watkins and Clark were major problems but Ogbah and Hardman have made that equal with cheap productivity we were supposed to see from Clark and Watkins. Veach needs to keep finding these type of guys and stop shelling out huge money to players not named Patrick Mahomes. |
I love it when people want to save 5M by cutting an Olineman only for us to have to turnaround and spend at least that amount on a competent replacement.
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Because that's what we're paying for in Clark and Watkins, man. Hardman's given us a credible gadget player and Ogbah has offset the mediocre/bad Okafor deal. Oh, and Ogbah's not even under CONTRACT for next season and that's what we're talking about right now - the damage he's done to next year's cap. Ogbah doesn't fit in that calculous right now (and will cost a lot more if/when he does) and Okafor's number goes up, making it even more likely that Ogbah simply becomes his replacement - not Clark's. But Veach's ledger is still firmly in the red on those deals. Besides, to be a SB team you need contributions from cheap players AND representative performance from your expensive guys. Even if they 'offset' (and they haven't) - that's still just a recipe for a 10 win squad. |
Watkins is gone in 2020.
If there is a new CBA....you can June 1st cut Hitchens in 2020. And you can June 1st cut Clark in 2021. The dead cap hits suck but at least they’re gone. Although if all three of those happen....it won’t be Veach making those decisions. |
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From what I've seen, his 2021 salary is fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year in 2020. So in that case you're paying him $18.5 million base either way in 2021 and see no cap savings. Unless you just rip the band-aid off and cut his ass this offseason. But if you do that, you fire Veach at the same time and frankly with the $38 million in dead money it creates, I don't think it's even possible. Veach ****ed that acquisition up so badly. What the hell was he doing effectively guaranteeing 3 years/$63 million to this goddamn guy? The only hope I have is that the contract sites have it wrong and the 2021 salary doesn't guarantee until the 3rd day of 2021. If they really created a contract that made him impossible to cut in 2020 AND guaranteed his salary for 2021 within that same 2020 window...Jesus. What an absolute idiot. |
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I think they are ok at the tackle spots, liked what I saw from Rankin and think he should get a real crack at the starting LG spot in 2020 and Ldt is fine when he isn't a broke dick. I think if I were going to make a change on the line, it would be at Center. |
Ideally..
Trade Sammy for a 3rd. Use said 3rd on a WR <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I started scouting in 2003. This upcoming WR class is the best I've ever seen.</p>— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) <a href="https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1194669081116303360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
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I don’t think we’ll get a 3rd for him. I’d say we’d be lucky to get a 4th and I’m cutting him if we can’t get anything at all. |
Wisniewski is another viable on the Interior line. The kid is a technician and can block in space
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30 years old with 100 career starts. Don't get me wrong - I'd like to see him brought back on the right deal. But my memory is that he's had some durability/consistency issues in the past and that's why he was still out there as a street FA. I think I remember a fair amount of conversation here when the Raiders signed him and many were high on him as a replacement for Hudson, IIRC. He's got some ability. But I think I really like him in this sort of "your job if you can take it from someone" role more than relying on him as a starter. |
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I mean apart from the guy that just keeps paying people for what he really hopes they'll become and not what history says they are, how many GMs out there have demonstrated a willingness to get burned by cock-teases like Sammy Watkins? Unless Veach can find a way to clone himself and put the clone in charge of another team, we're gonna struggle to find a GM with the right combination of desperate and stupid to give us any real value for this spacey ****stick at this point. |
They can move Sammy for a pick. A lot of these teams about to draft a dumb young QB will want a vet like Sammy.
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I'm to the point that I'd be OK with an OG in the 1st round. |
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Feels a little like last year again; short on standout prospects but a shitload of pretty good ones, especially at WR and RB. T seems pretty decent as well so if a good one slides, I'd be fine grabbing one and using some G work as OTJ training to get him ready to replace Schwartz or Fisher going forward (and as a true swing-tackle to get the !@#$ rid of Erving). |
Would have to agree. Upgrading from Cam Erving is a priority, but hell that isn't hard to do.
I really liked what I saw from Rankin at LG and I would give him a real shot at the job if he can be 100% by Week 1 2020. I think they are ok at the tackle spots for right now and I wouldn't mind an upgrade at Center. Shortage of picks so far though. Most of Pats problems has been with a useless sack of ass at LT since Week 2. |
After watching Jones literally wreck plays on his own for a couple of weeks, I keep thinking it wouldn't be the end of the world if Pat didn't want to sign an extension until the new CBA and that left enough cash to re-sign Jones now.
Hopefully that leaves enough cash to bring back Ogbah, get a cheap veteran CB on a Claiborne type deal and then look to draft CB, LB, OL in pretty much whatever falls to our picks BPA situation. |
A stud 3-down LB is as big of a need as any imo.
That and CB will be key points next offseason. |
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I want Anthony Hines if he declares.
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This season we were hoping PMII would be as durable as Favre, but he wasn't.I'm in DGAF mode get the best OL and feature RB possible. |
I'd even be happy with a DT or a DE in the 1st if the guy is an all round pass rush and run defense guy. No harm in stacking talent on either line, I'm pretty much BPA any defensive position (except safety) and also O line the first 3 rounds.
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A lot of random positions being thrown out, but everyone should just start familiarizing themselves with the cornerback class in the first round.
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The problem becomes if teams who trade for him think he's valuable enough to spend a draft pick on, but cheap enough such that they can let him walk as an option when the season is over. I don't think anybody is going to trade for him and give him an extension. We're going to need a REALLY stupid GM to make that move. Elway and Gruden probably won't trade with us. Veach is in KC. Grigson doesn't have a job. Hmm... Ryan Pace is pretty stupid. Do the Bears need a WR? They might do it... Did the guy who was GMing the Bills and traded us the Mahomes pick get a new job? If so, we should give him a phone call. |
The Dolphins have a ****ton of picks and they're DROWNING in cap space. Make a deal with them.
Boom. Done. |
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In what world is Sammy Watkins a 'reliable target'?
Misses 1/4 of the season and is only physically present for 1/2 of the games he's actually on the roster for. Our time with Sammy Watkins has made it extremely clear why 2 teams gave up on him despite his talent. Reliable is pretty much the last word I'd use to describe an oft-injured WR with serious focus issues. |
Are you too illiterate to read the end of that line or what
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When you don't have any earthly idea what games he's going to actually show up for, then he's not 'reliable' even in those games. He has no value to a developing QB because of it. If you could count on getting a good version of him whenever he's healthy that's one thing. But when the dude spaces out with seemingly no rhyme nor reason, no - he's not reliable at all. Ever. |
It's time to invest in the interior OL at some point early in the draft.
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I’m okay with LDT for another year if we can afford it. I think the priority has to be fixing the middle of the field this offseason.
C, RB and LB have to be the focal points |
LDT makes too much money, is always hurt and isn't really that good of a player.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unreal block & mental processing from Quenton Nelson to read this LB blitz and work back across the formation to pick it up. <a href="https://t.co/3PeQIZV1jh">pic.twitter.com/3PeQIZV1jh</a></p>— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1196903437700665349?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
I’m very much so down with drafting an IOL pretty early. I don’t think it’d take much to upgrade either.
LB, CB, IOL, RB. Big needs ahead at those spots. |
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Even though it should happen, it’s hard for me to think Andy will allow Veach to part with Sammy next year, especially if we don’t win it all.
Idk why I just have a feeling Andy is going to try to keep as many weapons as he can and tell Veach to make Pat and Jones (I think Veach will extend him) first year cap hits low. Frank Clark’s cap hit is $6.5 million this year. I think something similar will be set up for Chris Jones. |
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If Mahomes has consistently good protection and Hill, Kelce, Hardman. He’s going to make shit happen. One way or another. But to have a good defense to lean on when times are tough is critical I think. |
Terez reinforced on his pod today that KC wants to do a deal with Jones
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Regarding Jones - there MIGHT be a viable replacement on the market for him from Pittsburgh.
Javon Hargrave is probably one of the best interior defenders that you've never heard of. He's damn good and has only looked better this year with Tuitt being injured. He's gonna make some nice money this year but I believe it will likely be a fraction of what Jones is making. Now realize that Hargrave is doing this while playing the nastiest position in football - a true NT in Pittsburgh. You get him in a 4-3 and let him play a little freer and you could see an even bigger tick up in production. AND you'd get another damn big body in there. If it's the sort of move that can save you $5-6 million in AAV over the next few years, I think you have to strongly consider it. Hargrave is under the radar for most people but he can be a true nightmare for opponents. |
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I'm not keen on bringing in an outside free agent to replace a departing one just because of money. There's always that risk of said guy just not fitting here for one reason or another. I think they've shoehorned themselves into having to move away from Jones, sadly though, so something will have to be done. |
Yeah no thanks on the Hargrave idea for me. He’s an awesome player, but he’s still going to be pretty expensive. If I’m gonna pay someone at the position, it can be the guy who has earned it here in our own building. And is elite.
Otherwise I’d just roll with Nnadi, Saunders, Pennel, etc. and go cheaper at that spot. |
Middlekauf had a good segment on his last podcast about paying players. I think I probably agree.
Anyway, he was basically saying he's willing to overpay a guy or pay a premium for him if he has an elite upside. Guys like Prescott that play really well in a system, you just can't do it because they don't have that elite talent upside. Paying Wentz you can stomach because "atleast he has elite upside and if he can hit that, you get your moneys worth" So with Jones, he's got elite upside. He can be a top 2 or 3 interior defender in football. I would pay for that. |
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But when you ALSO pay for guys like Okafor and Hitchens or gambles on tools like Watkins fail, then you're left trying to come up with a Plan B. And as far as Plan Bs go, Hargrave could be a hell of a fallback. The problem is that Hargrave doesn't fit the talent here quite as well in that he's not a guy who's likely to be an asset bouncing out to DE like Jones can if Saunders/Nnadi continue to perform at a high level or excel. |
I'm of the opinion that this draft is strong enough at DT that if you can get a good return on a tag and trade of Jones you do that.
For example, Marvin Wilson would be a baller in this defense in my opinion. Don't know if he'll fall far enough for us to get him, but that's where he's projected right now. |
I think this class at IDL is awfully weak.
I like Kinlaw and Brown is stout, but shit it gets thin after they go. |
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Davis is solid, then you have Wilson, Lynch, and an already declared Madubuike and Elliott. Murchison, Lawrence, Fotu, offer solid value solid in different ways. Coatney is a sleeper in my opinion. |
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Some guys will be gone, but I don't think Jones will be one of them. |
Man, just take a look at the FA defensive tackle group....
Jones Leonard Williams Jarran Reed A'Shanwn Robinson DJ Reader Jordan Phillips Michael Pierce Javon Hargrave Michael Brockers Suh Tyler Davison Quentin Jefferson Danny SHelton Maliek Collins Nick Williams Now granted there's a pretty big gap between Jones and someone like Williams, but the question becomes whether or not the depth of FA options holds some value down. Then again, I think there was some thought that the deep safety group in last year's FA class would hold values down there and all it did was damage the middle-class in the lot. The top of the FA pool still got paid in a big way. Jones is just awfully unique. |
We’ve gotten a lot of outstanding value from either rookies or cheap players that are on rookie contracts or contracts that are small in comparison to the larger picture (Okafor).
If the reports are true, I believe Veach’s plan would be to sign Jones and then continue finding cheaper talent to surround the team. |
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He was mediocre, then hurt, then finally looking good...then hurt again. Any fair interpretation of the Okafor deal has to put it at middling at best for this season (and I think I'm being generous there). He has essentially a 2 year, $11 million deal and was...fine. Sometimes. Other times he was actually pretty damn bad (and I still contend he bore a large share of responsibility for our early season struggles against the run - he was trash there). For the first 8 weeks of the season he was somewhere between 'invisible' and 'lousy' except for the game against the Broncos where EVERYONE got right. Then he missed 4 games. So through 12 weeks he'd been an actual asset one time and in a game where I'm pretty sure I could've picked up a QB pressure. Then he finally looked genuinely good in Wk 13 against the Patriots and could very well have maintained that momentum but he got hurt again and will now be lost for the post-season. I mean c'mon - how's that an 'outstanding value'? |
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1. His cap hit is just south of $3 million. That is cheap. There are rookies that are paid more than him. It’s basically a 1st rd rookie contract, which in the grand scheme of things is a bargain. To put that into perspective, he is the 25th highest paid player at his position this year. 2. He replaced Justin Houston at 15% of the price. He was on track to have a close to similar season to Houston last season. Less than $3 million compared to $20 million. That was the goal this offseason right? Am I missing something here? 3. Again. 5 sacks in 10 games for less than $3 million along with a decent run stuffing player who struggled a bit early in a new scheme but has turned it on the last month. That’s great value and exactly what we should be doing. But man you need to get this mindset out of your head that players needs to be playing outstanding games every week. There’s context here. Like Frank Clark, you throw the Ravens game out of the window. We’ll no shit he didn’t pile up stays and struggled a bit in the running game. You know how hard it is for any DE to sack Lamar Jackson or stop him in the open field running the ball? Go ahead and put your best DE out there and see how he does. There’s a reason Baltimore is good. He’s had some struggles early no doubt. He also played a rookie QB in week 1 that they did not and could not prepare for. And Lamar Jackson. And he was out in Oakland. I also don’t care about the “he destroyed Denver” argument. Your lovechild Khalil Mack got an All-pro award for destroying Denver for 5 sacks in 2015. He also embarrassed Donald Stephenson the week before for 2 sacks. So half his production came against scrubs. Good players dominate scrubs and often pump stats that way. They are supposed to beat weak players. |
You keep saying that I need players to be outstanding every week. I don't - even a little. I want them to not be a liability more weeks than they are, at least when we're talking about guys who are never supposed to be more than solid veterans. And you can't say that about Okafor. You say 'he had some early struggles' - well hell man, the guy missed the entire middle of the season and he'll miss the end. So apart from the 6 games he'll miss to injury and the 7 games worth of 'early struggles' - what exactly did he do 'round here?
I need them to not suck more often than they don't. Okafor was BAD man, he was just bad. And for all the 'YOU GUYS JUST WANT SACKS!!!!' crap I hear when we complain about a move, y'all sure are quick to cite them as dispositive. I have NEVER claimed sacks are the only thing that matters. And if you're just gonna 'throw the Ravens game out the window' them I'm gonna just throw the Broncos game out the window and say that he had ONE decent week this year. I'm not sure why you get to 'throw out Baltimore' and then say "I don't care about Denver'. You wanna toss his worst game? Alright - you need to be willing to toss his best. If everyone sucks against Baltimore, well everyone's pretty damn good against Denver. And don't bother trying argue cap hits when we're hemmed into his deal for 2 years - long-term planning matters. For year 1 of this deal, it was a bust. Was it a cheaper bust? Sure, but a bust it was. Trying to compare it to Houston's deal is folly as Houston's deal was KNOWN as ludicriously over market. And if you want to just lean into 'he was the 25th highest paid player at his position this year' you're welcome to do so, but he was NOT the 25th most valuable DE in the league this year so I'm not sure how you've done your argument any favors. Mike Pennel has been more important to this defense than Okafor. But a fair amount. Ogbah was far outplaying him and now that both of their seasons are over I think you can say that Ogbah provided more in his limited run than Okafor in his - and I don't see that as even drawing much of an argument. Okafor was a disappointment. He DIDN'T 'beat weak players' apart from a single game. He was starting to look like a guy who could salvage the deal we signed him to because he WAS turning the corner, but then the guy got hurt. Again. I don't know how you can say that he was a bargain when we got about a 1/2 season of play out of him and most of that was ineffective. |
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Not too enamored with the Tier 2 pool this year. |
I think at this point you try to keep your own guys in FA.
Pennel and Wiz should absolutely be here at their price point. Give them a bit of a raise and stay another year as critical veteran depth. Aside from Pat and Jones, Ward has to be a priority. He’s more than earned an extension heading into a contract year. I think Veach has to try and get that done early. Really aside from that, I would try to get Ogbah and Breeland back, however I don’t see them going for anything less than quality money as they’ve never been paid above a rookie scale before. They don’t seem like candidates to stay IMO. Corner market is a buyers market this year. Lot of decent guys out there. Hoping Veach can get Chris Harris Jr on a discount for a year or two. Not sure of the IOL market, but maybe there is a quality one out there at a low enough price to talk to. Maybe someone like Alex Mack, who if I were to guess would be a likely cut in Atlanta. If not, make it a priority in the draft. |
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In fact, I like that approach to every area of weakness as much as possible. |
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They've already been preparing to lose a receiver in the offseason. That's why I kept saying all along that the Tyreek situation made no difference to the draft.
Only thing his thing did was make it easy to pick what WR is going. Since he was never charged, it's an easy pick to let Sammy go in the winter. |
I just hope Sammy can tear it up to close the year strong so we can flip him for a pick. ANY pick, I don’t care.
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Yip
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Charvarius Ward needs a new deal.</p>— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) <a href="https://twitter.com/ByNateTaylor/status/1208948174288756738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
So you pretty much have to move on from Watkins, for sure. Quite a few other older players are making money that you should theoretically be able to replace fairly easily.
I kinda wonder if you could get Dorsey to trade you OBJ for Watkins. |
Carson Wentz just got a $32 million AAV contract extension. His first year cap hit is $8.39 million. Mahomes contract will likely be a bit higher than Wilson’s leading $35 million AAV.
I think that would put Pat around an $11 million first year cap hit. Then with Jones first year cap hit mirroring Clark, it would be $6.5 million. So yeah we’ll be fine next year cap wise and could keep Sammy if Andy really pushes to (I hope not). We’ll have money to spend this Spring outside of Pat/Jones. Hopefully we trade/cut Sammy and use that money on a Ward extension and a veteran IOL. |
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I like Sammy, hope things end well here and he gets a ring this season. But he gone after that. No doubt about it.
Just not enough cash or opportunity to go around. Hill and Kelce are the money makers at this point and I think you have to hope for good progression out of Hardman. He should become best buddies with Tyreek and Patrick this offseason if he wants to reach his max potential eventually, which resides somewhere in the realm of Desean Jackson IMO (the comp I gave him during the draft). |
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Still, Watkins has to go, it's just maybe that Robinson comes back on a small ish deal. |
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Just depends how they wanna attack it. |
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