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Duncan Idaho's Compendium of Comprehensive Offseason Plans
Offseason Plan: Version 5.0
Now with more Chris Jones, for sure, and an understanding of his contract. And Drue Tranquill on contract. Cut WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling DE Charles Omenihu (last time, I said this stunk. Hearing him saying today that he thinks he should be paid like the guys in the tier right behind Nick Bosa makes it a pretty no-brainer. He clearly isn’t in a spot to do a small extension. So cut him loose.) Extend S Justin Reid (4/$49M – I stick to the restructure of Reid in this run. He’s just so solid and good and reliable, and the secondary still needs a veteran leader.) Tag and Trade CB L’Jarius Sneed (this time, I send him to the Vikings for #42 because that’s fun) Trade WR Kadarius Toney (2025 conditional 6th) Let Walk Mike Edwards Derrick Nnadi Willie Gay Jerick McKinnon Clyde Edwards-Helaire Blake Bell Richie James Deon Bush Tommy Townsend (we don’t need him any more, we have the Dolphin) Jody Fortson Prince Tega-Wanogho Re-Sign Tershawn Wharton (3 years, $9.5M – The DT room is thin even with Jones back, and watching the SB we really saw what I thought was Wharton’s best game. I like having a DT with that burst and speed, and he has clearly gotten much stronger, and he is athletic enough to run some DE snaps in a pinch) James Winchester (minimal deal) Malik Herring (ERFA tender) Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender) Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender) Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender) FA Moves QB Trevor Siemian (1/$1.7M – veteran QB) DE Yetur Gross-Matos (1/$1.6M – just seems like a good bet for KC as a Spags-type DE who is a Veach reclamation attempt special to boot) OT Yosh Nijman (2/$12.3M – I just am not comfortable going into the draft with only Wanya Morris and a rookie at LT. Nijman provides a little veteran depth with some upside). With these deals done, I’m still sitting on about $22M of cap space without restructuring Mahomes at all. I’ve added draft capital and addressed LT insurance/depth with a vet I think can be at least AVERAGE at LT. I still dive back in at this point for WR Darnell Mooney at 1/$8M , with incentives up to $12M. That still leaves me about $15M in cap space, which I could use to sign draft picks and hunt for June 1 cuts/late FA bargains. I’m tempted to go get Teair Tartt in this cycle but hold off. Getting into the season without touching Mahomes deal at ALL is going to really help with flexibility in 2025, when it’s going to be needed due to the Jones situation being added to the books. Draft Needs based on plan so far: As before, we’re still looking at a pretty set roster that doesn’t have any glaring needs but needs to invest at DT, WR, and LT. Simulator used: NFL Mock Draft Database (best aggregated big board at this point) 1.32: Kingsley Suamataia, LT, BYU. Suamataia needs seasoning, but his upside is high and he checks the size, arm length, and athleticism boxes to be a good long-term LT for the Chiefs. 2.42: Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan. This might be high OK, this might be a bit of a reach. But Wilson is someone I haven’t mocked to KC before and I do think his speed, explosiveness, and ability to make cuts at top speed make him a good fit for KC’s offense. With Mooney only signed for one year, Wilson would be on hand with experience under his belt for 2025 and beyond for that role. Also considered: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. I probably would go here like I did in my last mock, but I wanted to switch it up. 2.64 Sedrick Van Pran, IOL, Georgia. Here’s a new one. I considered dipping for another WR here (hothead Jermain Burton!) but instead stick on the OL. The Jones decision is going to come with consequences on other players, and I may need to account for them. Van Pran can be a stud C or a good G. If Humphrey walks, you’re covered. If Smith walks, you’re covered. If they cut Thuney to keep Smith and Humphrey, you’re covered. If they need to move Humphrey off C because of Snaps, you’re covered. 3.95 McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M Big bulky dude to help replace Nnadi. 4.131 Brenden Rice, WR, USC. His 40 at the combine was a disappointment, but I still like his size and ability to work the scramble drill. Great bloodlines, great work ethic, and I think he’s faster than his 40. 5.158 Deantre Prince, CB, Ole Miss. I missed on the round 2 and round 3 CB values/fits. His size/speed/athletic profile tracks with the Day 3 gems the Chiefs have been finding. Let’s keep it rolling. 5.172 Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville. I am not first to the Guerendo train, but I’m on it. Size/speed combo is great. I doubt he actually makes it here, though. 7.250 Gabe Hall, DT, Baylor. I like Hall’s size and athletic ability. Seemed worthwhile for a Day 3 stab. Wrapping it up This will be my last offseason exercise. I’m pretty stoked about where KC lands in this, honestly. Two-deep (Re-signed,FA adds, rookies) (2) QB: Mahomes/Siemian (3) RB: Pacheco/Guerendo/Prince (6) WR: Rice, Mooney, Wilson/ Watson, Rice, Moore (3) TE: Kelce/Gray/min contract vet (2) OT: Nijman/Suamataia (2) OG: Thuney/Morris (1) C: Humphrey/Van Pran (2) RG: Smith/Caliendo (2) RT: Taylor/Morris (6) DE: Karlaftis, Anudike-Uzomah, Gross-Matos, Harring, Thompsonsmall contract vet (5) DT: Jones,Wharton,Farrell, Jackson ,Hall (5) LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones (6) CB: McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Johnson, Jones, Prince (4) S: Reid, Cook, Conner, inexpensive vet, probably Deon Bush (1) LS: Winchester (1) K: Butker (1) P: The Dolphin That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to depth at OL or maybe another DB who is a special teams asset. The defense still is built around Chris Jones and I know that DE room is going to make some people nervous. I’d be looking for some training camp cuts/late FA additions to beef that spot up some more. The LB corps is still a strong one (and still one of the better ones in the NFL, if not quite as versatile in base with Willie Gay presumably making a lot of money elsewhere), and the secondary is still a strength (probably a little stronger at S in 24 than it was in 23, with Reid, Conner, and Cook, but obviously turning things over at CB). I’d feel good about the chances for a 3-peat with this one, and I think KC would be the preseason favorite in this run. Defense is still strong, offense got a bunch of help. Looking ahead to 25, I haven’t addressed Bolton-Humphrey-Smith. In light of the Jones signing and structure, I don’t think they can keep 2 any more. Might just be one… and maybe neither of the OL. Offseason Plan: Version 4.0
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Offseason Plan: Version 3.0
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Offseason Plan: Version 2.0
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Offseason Plan: Version 1.0
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Looks nice. I'd be good with that.
I'd love to add Isaiah Simmons to the LB room. Only 25, 1st rd pick and has all the athleticism Willie Gay has. |
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Made a major mistake in this run through, scrapping Justin Watson from my mind. Subbing him for Hardman.
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Brown has also missed games with injury every year.
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I really REALLY like Egbuka - been trying to build a little momentum around him for a month or so.
And if you were to sign Hollywood as a FA, you truly couldn't make a better pick than Egbuka. I mean maybe one of the bigger bodied guys might float some boats, but I just don't care that much about height. Mahomes isn't gonna YOLO balls for guys to go up and get very often. And if he has Rice, Brown and Egbuka out there getting open, it'll simply never be necessary. Those are three extremely complementary guys with very specific strengths but at the same time they're not LIMITED to those areas of strength. MVS, for instance, is (was) a genuine deep threat but ONLY a deep threat. JJSS was a solid underneath receiver but ONLY an underneath receiver. Rice is a dynamic underneath catch and run threat, Brown is a dynamic deep threat, Egbuka is a silky route-runner who will be outstanding at finding separation at his break all over the field. But ALL of them can do anything else on occasion you'd ask from them. All three of those guys can catch a ball underneath or deep or run a bubble screen. That would be an awfully good group of weapons. Didn't Lachey say he was returning to Iowa? And honestly, Iowa TEs have done so well of late that I feel like he'll get a boost into the late 2nd. LaPorta is gonna make him some money. Tart's another guy I've been trying to get people to pay attention to - I think he'd be a real nice pickup. I'd love to see another complementary DL either on the 2nd day or in FA (even if it's a DE who moves Omenihu to the inside on a semi-permanent basis) but you seem to have used Gaines for that. I'm just not a Gaines guy. Wasn't last season, am not now. I don't see what some others see in him - he's a complete JAG who MIGHT provide a small upgrade on Nnadi but even that's not something I'm sure of. Good effort, sir. I'll get to work on willing Egbuka into existence. |
I really like Egbuka....in that I think he could end up being the guy from this draft that goes in that Justin Jefferson slot and ends up being better than some of those that go in front of him.
I would rather have Odunze, but that's a pipe dream. |
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On Gaines, I'm just looking for a generally competent guy to slot in there. Not set on him. I do really like Tart, though, and think he could be the type of signing that really outplays his contract. KC needs a move or 2 this offseason that pay off like Trey Hendrickson for the Bengals, to really get the inevitable nature of things back together. |
The only thing I don't agree with is your comment that in your scenario you have no intention of signing Bolton to another contract when his rookie contract is up. I think KC needs to find a way to keep him long term. He's the QB of the defense and if they have to cut a guy like Reid after next year to create the room to afford Bolton, so be it.
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I'm with DJ on Gaines. Options I'd like to explore at DT are:
Daquan Jones - been injured i think there's a discount there. Maurice Hurst - Same, would look to pay minimum. He might only give you 300 snaps but it's at a near elite level. If he's rotational I'd swing. Michael Pierce - Has had a great year, I think you can get him around $6-7m a year and he'd be well worth it. Chris Wormley - Has he retired? I guess the theme is taking a risk on guys who've been injured. Probably I'd want someone like Pierce and then one of those riskier, cheaper options. Egbuka I really like. But...I'd also really like a guy whose played more on the outside. Might not matter with Holywood and I'm not saying he CAN'T do it. But if he can he might go before our pick anyway. |
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BUT... I still see a guy who is at best a "eh, he's OK" option as a pass defender. His instincts are next level and I think they play him up until he starts to decline physically. But if he's fooled, or pulled out of position by his assignment, he just doesn't have the raw speed/range to recover quickly. And he's still pretty limited as a pass defender. I just don't see how you can pay him big money on a long-term deal when that's the case. Depends on what he's asking, but I assume it's going to be more than I'm comfortable with. Quote:
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Yeah Egbuka looks nice. I think Adonai Mitchell looks good too.
Lot of options. Feels like we wouldn't have to trade up with this class assuming they call declare. This will probably never happen bc Andy almost always drafts a lineman in the first or 2nd rd, but man getting Egbuka or Mitchell and then Cade Stover in rd 2 would be so awesome |
I also like Egbuka! But if we had Brown, a fast deep threat, and Rice, a scrappy over the middle type, I might consider going with a tall outside guy like Thomas Jr.
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Realistically I don't think we can fully "fix" the WR or LT in FA. I think maybe the best outcome is to partially fix the WR room with someone like Brown, and then replace Jones with an aggregate approach at DT. I'd consider ditching Reid as well and signing someone like Stone who's better at coverage and probably cheaper. If we go into the draft with a cheaper and possible upgrade at safety and a group of DTs like Pierce and Daquan Jones replacing C Jones, I think we call those positions good until later picks. Then you can focus on WR and LT. I think a stud WR in R1 is possible. Move up early in the 2nd to grab the best remaining LT, maybe someone like Patrick Paul, and then spend the rest of the draft on a TE, a guard who can sit a year, coverage focused LB, RB and maybe a double dip at WR. If the draft ticks a couple of those boxes I think we can maybe fix one or 2 more through remaining FA. |
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I mean I'm looking at him as a possible THIRD entry to the WR room. Sign Brown, Draft Egbuka, sign Davis, keep Rice - that's your top 4. I really don't care about WR5 and 6. If that's Watson and Moore, so be it. Maybe Ross pushes one of 'em off the roster. |
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But that one guy assures me he has 'game speed' and would've housed the ball that Rice didn't. So there's that. |
Firmly against signing Tranquill over Gay. I can already tell this is going to be an offseason topic of contention.
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Hell, Tranquill may have well priced himself out of our range now that I think of it. |
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Not sure why the market didn't materialize for him but I'm not sure why it suddenly would now. |
I'd take Tranquil over Gay. Gay's just too wildly inconsistent for me to care about the athletic potential at this stage. I think Tranquil has been fairly up and down too, but less so.
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I love Gay and would LOVE to roll with Tranquill/Gay as the core LB for the forseeable future, but it just doesn't seem likely. |
I'd rather keep Gay, but I'd keep Tranquill and Gay and let Bolton walk.
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I've already accepted it |
I kind of hope they throw down a little scratch and keep Mike Danna
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I think if the money is the same I keep Bolton and let Gay walk.
If Tranquil remains cheap there is value there. Hopefully there is some wizardry that we can do to keep all 3, but that's probably not going to happen. Hopefully Chenal is ready to break fools. |
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A little Leo hype for you |
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They seem to have something special going |
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Because the flashes he shows are things that maybe literally NOBODY in the NFL can do. I mean he's a truly unique physical talent. But he's just always been kinda dumb. But what gets slept on with him is the energy level. I don't care about that all that much for offensive players, but on defense I want SOMEONE who plays with his hair on fire. It was always, IMO, what prevented DJ from being the annual All-Pro his physical skills said he could be. He was just so cerebral, for good and bad. He was always thinking his way through plays. And sometimes you kinda want someone that's just looking to hurt someone out there. That's looking to fly into an area and make a play. That's able to make a mistake and 2 plays later have a giant shit-eating grin on his face and slapping his teammates on the ass for something they did. That guy is pretty important to the defensive psyche, IMO. So while the question will naturally be Gay or Tranquil - they just bring such different things that I don't think that's the right question. I think it's Tranquil or Bolton. And with Gay, it's just a question of money. Keep Tranquil or don't - it's immaterial to the Gay decision, IMO. If you can afford to retain him, you do it. If you can't - well damn. But whether Tranquil is here or he isn't, I don't think that calculus changes substantially apart from the cap space we have available to us. And I think you DEFINITELY close the door on Gay before you use that cap space on Tranquil. |
Can someone please help me understand the Marquise Brown love? In five NFL seasons, he has been healthy for two, barely cracked a thousand yards once. I get that he can make some big plays, but is <1 big play per game average really worth 4/70? Especially when MVS has a similar number of big plays in fewer receptions each year?
I guess I just struggle to get enthusiastic about Brown, and I don't really see where everyone's hype comes from. |
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2. He's not just a big-play guy and not a Valdes-Scantling replacement. They wouldn't be paying him to just run deep routes and be a deep threat. They'd be bringing him in to use him like they used Hill (and planned to use Toney this year). 3. The hype comes from him being a generally productive player when healthy, who can beat guys deep, make guys miss in the open field, and who catches the ball really well. His career drop rate is like 4%, which is really good. And for a little guy, he's surprisingly good in contested catch spots. 4. Of the guys likely to ACTUALLY hit FA (Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley being the other 2 in his tier), he's the youngest and offers the most opportunity to provide more value than the contract he signed. All things equal, if it were me, I'd go hard after Mike Evans and try to make that happen, if possible. But I think the Chiefs are more likely to covet/target/get Brown. Basically, if you like Zay Flowers and would like to have Zay Flowers on the Chiefs, you should be interested in Brown. |
Really like those first two picks.
Guyton feels like an Andy Reid type. Very athletic pass blocker with good feet, needs to be coached up. Egbuka is exactly what Andy looks for, he's a route runner and separator. Brown feels like exactly what we need, a fast deep threat that can catch. |
I don't actually disagree on the Brown thing, I'm just not up for paying him that. There's just not much upside cooked in there. If he hits his ceiling, maybe. But how likely is that?
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">final pass rush metrics for interior defenders <a href="https://t.co/MvDru7eNvn">pic.twitter.com/MvDru7eNvn</a></p>— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1744782336967762249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I'm a PFF fan, but understand most aren't. |
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We have $31m in space already + let MVS walk for +$14m = $45m = $28m Jones & $17m Sneed.... restructure someone (Mahomes, Thuney, or Taylor) to pay the smaller contracts. |
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You can't 'run it back' with this team. And if you retain Sneed and Jones, that's what you're committing to. A) 'Run it back' rarely works B) This ain't a good enough squad to do that with anyway. It needs a fairly significant roster shakeup and bringing back both Sneed and Jones will prevent that. |
Draft a guy, flip a pick to the Titans for Hopkins.
I don't think they can bring back Jones at that #, but he's still an elite player and that's gonna sting losing him. |
Jones recent comment about this maybe being his last game at Arrowhead kind of puts some writing on the wall. I don't think he's back, and at his number we probably shouldn't. He's a great player, no doubt, but sinking 28+ into a DT is tough to do.
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Also restructuring doesn't have to be catastrophic for the future of our cap. For instance, if you convert $10m of Mahomes Salary to Signing Bonus then that $10m is now spread from 2024 season at $10m, to the next 5 seasons at $2m each, and if the cap is going up by say $20m a year then you're good. The impact becomes less and less each season as long as you don't abuse it too much. |
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Pete Caroll out for SEA... Maybe Lockett gets let go to save cap space. They're pressed up against the cap with only $1.5m and he's due for a new contract.
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If you don't hit on a high number of draft picks, you're ****ed in the NFL. you can't just spend your way to multiple championships in the NFL. You can MAYBE buy one. Ask The Rams. You can spend what SHOULD have bought you a Super Bowl and still not get there, ask The Cowboys. To have sustained success, you damned well better draft well. |
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Two or three good players at those positions for what ONE at a premium position costs. Better be hitting on those in the draft. |
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The odds are, you're eventually gonna draft some shit birds. |
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They drafted him in the first, he's gonna play. They can't sign Danna and let the best man win, they need that money elsewhere.
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Dana is going to get a bigger Bag of $$$ than Gay will because he plays at a premium position. He's gone and we are going to get a nice comp pick down the road because we are going to loose players like him and Jones.
Keep the secondary together, try to hold on to those LBs because they won't break the bank, keep investing in the Defensive Line in the draft. |
Felix and Thompson will be DE 3 and 4. They showed good flashes last week. Just need the off-season to get stronger and work on technique. Talent is definitely there.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This rep from BJ Thompson makes me GIDDY <a href="https://t.co/aqxRSWiyeg">pic.twitter.com/aqxRSWiyeg</a></p>— Daniel Harms�� (@InHarmsWay19) <a href="https://twitter.com/InHarmsWay19/status/1745190211452047807?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BJ Thompson is lightning in a bottle. Doesn't close out the win, but tuck this rep in your back pocket for future use <a href="https://t.co/k6eXuu4G4F">pic.twitter.com/k6eXuu4G4F</a></p>— Daniel Harms�� (@InHarmsWay19) <a href="https://twitter.com/InHarmsWay19/status/1744801938456146010?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Felix Anudike-Uzomah showing off some power in his extension, taking Slater to the QB and nearly getting his hand on the pass <a href="https://t.co/o9szwAeOH8">pic.twitter.com/o9szwAeOH8</a></p>— Daniel Harms�� (@InHarmsWay19) <a href="https://twitter.com/InHarmsWay19/status/1744819531845878177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
Told y'all that Thompson had tools you can't teach.
He's overaged so the projection curve on him is tough to establish. But man, even if you also need to use next year to coach him up, he could be a hell of a little piece for a couple seasons. That get-off and the bend is borderline elite. |
nah, let Danna walk. Keep churning young guys through the ladder. We have 4 ends in Karlaftis, Omenihu, FAU, and Thompson plus we can ERFA tender Herring, which they will. Maybe spend another 4th or 5th on a DE or something. No need to lock up a bunch of money in Danna. If you can get him on a 1-year for like 3 million, that's one thing.
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Yeah, Harring showed some promising things in that Chargers game. 1st time for me, really.
He’ll be ERFAed in 2.0. |
Dang, Thompson has some odd stances before the snap lol
Glad he and FAU showed some potential, looking forward to them putting it all together. |
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I don't like that FAU was inactive in a playoff game.
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Probably will knock 2.0 out today.
Re: Anudike-Uzomah, I don't care that he was inactive. What he does or doesn't do this year is really inconsequential. |
Drafting a guy in the first round, then fully redshirting him....I dunno. Unless it's a QB, I don't think it's wise.
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The dolphins RB's were getting destroyed in the back field. I was at the game and dont have the brain power to fully take in a game in persone when its -28 wind chill, but it seemed like the Dline was doing its job against the run very well. |
That's true.
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Version 2.0 bump!
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I do not care for the part where you said we may be picking lower... other than that I could live with it.
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