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duncan_idaho 12-18-2019 12:42 PM

Duncan's Mock | Updated 1.17.19
 
I don’t do this for football very often and won’t claim to be an expert on the NFL draft. I did try to read a few different sources when researching players and think about scheme fit in addition to need and availability draft position, but this is mostly just kicking around some ideas and having some fun.

1st (#32 – yeah, that’s right, I’m calling it):
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
This comes down to opportunity for me. When it comes right down to it, the Chiefs have done well against the pass in 2019 with a cobbled-together CB group (and really just need to add an outside CB opposite Ward and some depth). Murray’s speed and versatility could upgrade the LB group as a whole and make the Chiefs much more effective in nickel and dime packages. Looking at LB available later in the draft, unless you’re a big believer in Troy Dye of Oregon (who is a physical freak and I think will test his way into the second round), it’s hard to find a guy who could reasonably project to play every down and be good in pass coverage. Year 1, he’s probably my WLB and one of 2 nickel backers.
-Alternatives: CB would also be a great move here (one of Shaun Wade – OSU, Paulson Adebo, Stanford, CJ Henderson, Florida, or Kristian Fulton, LSU would fit). If one of the top 2 centers - Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin or Creed Humphrey from Oklahoma – were available, it would be worth considering, too. Taking an OL here changes the shape of the draft a lot, IMO.


2nd (#59 – from 49ers):
Netane Muti, G, Fresno State
Muti has some of the best physical ability at G/C in this class. His technique needs refining, but you can teach that. Having a LG with his combo of strength and athleticism should be a major plus in pass pro and the run game, without hindering Reid’s love of moving his OL around in screens and designed rollouts.
-Alternatives: Darryl Williams from Miss. State would also be a consideration if going IOL here. He’s probably more ready Day 1 but has less upside. I like CB Jeff Gladney, TCU, in this range, too.

3rd (#96):
Cam Akers, RB, Florida State
There are a lot of guys likely to be available here that I like in KC’s offense. Akers’ ability to catch the ball and all-around package make him the best fit for me.
-Alternatives: Other RBs: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State. Zack Moss, RB, Utah; Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt. If I’m confident one of these 4 is available at the end of the 4th round, I might be tempted to take an interior OL guy (better shot at one of them in the 4th, though).

4th (#128)
Zach Shackelford, C, Texas
First-team all-Big 12 this year. Decent size, pretty good mobility, good combo blocker. Has a good pass protection reputation. Downside would be, as a starter, he wouldn’t be likely to be much of an upgrade as a solo run blocker. Might not be ready Day 1 but could be a year 2/late year 1 upgrade.
-Alternatives: Colby Parkinson, TE, Stanford. Big, athletic TE who would be a nice #2 option and has some upside as a receiver. Smart, athletic, should be safe and productive year 1. And I’m going to talk about him way less than the next guy: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri. Albert O has 1st-round physical ability – his size, speed, and ball skills are dynamite. He is injury prone and his OC his last two years didn’t seem to really understand how to use him (having a QB in 2019 who couldn’t read the field and refused to throw over the middle also hurt him). Also has poor blocking technique, despite having the frame to be a dynamite blocker, and needs to improve his route running. I wouldn’t stump for him here, but if you believe you can coach him up on the technical aspects, Okwuegbunam could be a weapon as a second TE and also an eventual heir apparent for Travis Kelce.

5th: (#160)
Lavert Hill, CB, Michigan
Versatile guy with the size to play outside and also the ability to play slot. In Spagnuolo’s defense, that versatility seems key.
-Alternatives: There are some WR I like in this range who I think fit the Chiefs scheme/needs: Joe Reed, Virginia and Quintez Cephus, Wisconsin. Each of them has good ability to separate, and has a little more size/effectiveness against man coverage than some of the Chiefs holdovers. Cephus was in a run-heavy offense but performed really well against Ohio State’s stable of strong CB in the Big Ten title game.

Closing thoughts:
If I’m Veach and I walk away from the draft this way, I feel like I’ve made major upgrades at LB and LG in rounds 1 and 2. Akers gives me a back with true 3-down potential (and at worst, an upgrade as my “receiving” back. My last two picks have some upside and provide quality depth, at least.

I’d be scouring the UDFA ranks for a WR that fits the parameters I’m talking about, though I could also hit FA for that need.

And I keep coming back to Okwuegbunam as a potential “Draft maker” when I look at other guys who might be around that spot. I see a lot of similarities to Kelce coming out of Cincinnati – physical gifts that far outshine his draft slot, some immaturity and injury and usage issues causing him to fall down the draft ranks.

Anyway, fire away at this. Changes/recommendations? What FA and other roster moves would you be looking to pair this with?

O.city 12-18-2019 01:02 PM

I dont' know that there's any way that Murray makes it to 32 with this LB'er class being what it is, but it's always possible.

pugsnotdrugs19 12-18-2019 02:33 PM

1) Thanks for finally being one to have a sack and pick KC to win it all.

2) I drafted Darryl Williams on Madden for us and he’s damn good there. Obviously doesn’t mean shit but it’d be cool to see that come to fruition in a successful way.

O.city 12-18-2019 02:38 PM

I like Kristian Fulton a lot. He'd make sense here.

It kinda sucks from a draft perspective being at the end of the rounds. You're just kind of picking off the bone a bit. Oh well, there are always good players around.

DJ's left nut 12-18-2019 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14664132)
I like Kristian Fulton a lot. He'd make sense here.

It kinda sucks from a draft perspective being at the end of the rounds. You're just kind of picking off the bone a bit. Oh well, there are always good players around.

Fulton was my 'we need to take this guy in the 3rd' pick last season. All the talk was about Greedy Williams and whenever I watched LSU I was sitting there thinking "Hey, anyone notice this dude on the other side of him?"

And then he went back for his senior season and wrecked my best laid plans. Sadly, he's probably gonna be a bit too rich for our blood now.

I like Fulton a ton. He's gonna be a real good player.

duncan_idaho 12-18-2019 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14663865)
I dont' know that there's any way that Murray makes it to 32 with this LB'er class being what it is, but it's always possible.


I looked at 4-5 mocks done in the past week, and he was going in the early second in all of them, so it seemed safe.

That may change as teams look at FA and the draft and realize the scarcity of players with that 3-down skill set.

Regardless, they should be able to address LB, CB, C, or LG in the draft.

ntexascardfan 12-18-2019 04:52 PM

I don't know if Shack has the strength to hold up as an NFL starter. He's also injury prone and has weak ankles.

duncan_idaho 12-18-2019 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14664162)
Fulton was my 'we need to take this guy in the 3rd' pick last season. All the talk was about Greedy Williams and whenever I watched LSU I was sitting there thinking "Hey, anyone notice this dude on the other side of him?"

And then he went back for his senior season and wrecked my best laid plans. Sadly, he's probably gonna be a bit too rich for our blood now.

I like Fulton a ton. He's gonna be a real good player.

Yeah, hard to go wrong with LSU DBs. Or Washington right now...

How do you feel about Albert O? I’ve thought he was going to be an NFL bust for about 18 months, but reading mocks this week made me question myself a bit there.

In the 4th/5th, if he really slid that far, the potential upside just seems like it’s worth the bust risk.

Chris Meck 12-19-2019 09:29 AM

I don't know enough about the individual players but I like your positional emphasis.

One guy I do know a bit about is Biadasz and I think he'd be Mahomes' guy for ten years plus. If he's there at #32 (thank you very much) I'd just do it and not have to worry about center for the next decade.

duncan_idaho 12-19-2019 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14665363)
I don't know enough about the individual players but I like your positional emphasis.

One guy I do know a bit about is Biadasz and I think he'd be Mahomes' guy for ten years plus. If he's there at #32 (thank you very much) I'd just do it and not have to worry about center for the next decade.


I think the same could be said for either of the top 2 C.

I’d take Murray over him, I think, if both were available. LB with Murray’s skill sets are getting hard to find.

O.city 12-19-2019 10:06 AM

Yeah, I think you go with Murray just because of his skill set, but that kinda makes it hard for me to believe he'll actually be there. I just don't know that a guy like that sticks around that long. Look at Devin Bush.

If he's there, take him. If he's not, I'd say grab one of those C's and deal with the LB's later.

IF there was a way to come out of the first 2 rounds with Fulton and the C from OU, I'd consider that a win.

DJ's left nut 12-19-2019 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 14664408)
Yeah, hard to go wrong with LSU DBs. Or Washington right now...

How do you feel about Albert O? I’ve thought he was going to be an NFL bust for about 18 months, but reading mocks this week made me question myself a bit there.

In the 4th/5th, if he really slid that far, the potential upside just seems like it’s worth the bust risk.

In the 4th? Why not?

I was all about taking Hock last year because I think the potential of this team is nearly limitless with a true weapon at TE2 and Kelce isn't getting younger. Moreover, I think having the ability to spend 40-50% of the game in 12 personnel would significantly improve our run game as well. It's just damn hard to run from the shotgun if you can't set the edges (just too easy for the DE to defeat the angle) and having another TE in-line to help with that would help a lot.

But man, the maturity issues and what sure looked to be a loss of explosion due to the knee injury make me take pause taking him in the first 2 days. The guy I saw at Mizzou last year WASN'T any better than Blake Bell. He didn't look as strong or as fast. He damn sure didn't look engaged. His blocking was indifferent and his hands were ass.

I mean it's just impossible to know what you're working with at this point. And frankly, neither option is exceptional. Either he was jaking it in his platform season or injuries have sapped him of his high-end potential. Pick your poison...they both kinda suck.

I don't think I was as high on him as most were even last season. He was probably 5th on my TE list when others were saying he should be a 1st rounder but/for the injuries. I didn't quite see the athleticism that others did even before the knee.

It could be one of those situations that you don't realize happen until you do those CP Mock drafts - a guy sliding isn't because nobody likes him, it's because there's always another guy they like just a little bit more. And I could see that happening if I were in the Chiefs war room. I could literally see a situation where every round through round 5 I find myself saying "yeah, I like some things here...but I kinda like {player X}'s things more..."

There are just some flags there I'm struggling with.

DJ's left nut 12-19-2019 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14665363)
I don't know enough about the individual players but I like your positional emphasis.

One guy I do know a bit about is Biadasz and I think he'd be Mahomes' guy for ten years plus. If he's there at #32 (thank you very much) I'd just do it and not have to worry about center for the next decade.

Oh sure, NOW you heathens come around.

I get savaged for taking a C for the Chiefs in round 1 of the CP Mock last year but now EVERYBODY wants to get on board with the 1st round fatty.

I see how it is...

duncan_idaho 12-19-2019 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14665464)
Oh sure, NOW you heathens come around.



I get savaged for taking a C for the Chiefs in round 1 of the CP Mock last year but now EVERYBODY wants to get on board with the 1st round fatty.



I see how it is...


Nothing more convincing than the eye test. Seeing how poor the interior ol play has been is proof positive.

kccrow 12-20-2019 12:06 AM

The more I watch Murray, the less I like him. He doesn't attack the LOS well enough for me. He's like a more athletic Hitchens. I'm not sure I want to spend a 1st round pick on a guy like that.

I like the rest, but not so sure you're getting Akers at the end of the 3rd round. I think top half of the 3rd is his floor so you'd be moving up or taking him at the end of the 2nd.

As for a TE, don't sleep on Brycen Hopkins. Kid is a stud. One really accurate source has him as late 3rd right now.

ntexascardfan 12-20-2019 12:48 AM

Kenneth Murray is a slightly bigger Gary Johnson.

Chris Meck 12-20-2019 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14665464)
Oh sure, NOW you heathens come around.

I get savaged for taking a C for the Chiefs in round 1 of the CP Mock last year but now EVERYBODY wants to get on board with the 1st round fatty.

I see how it is...

Well, to be fair, Reiter didn't look like the dumpster fire that he's become back then. He looked 'serviceable'. Now he's been exposed as a 300 pound bag of dogshit.

Also, the defense was SUCH a huge problem we had glaring needs.

Now I feel pretty good about the defensive situation. Next up, offensive line.

duncan_idaho 12-20-2019 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 14666785)
The more I watch Murray, the less I like him. He doesn't attack the LOS well enough for me. He's like a more athletic Hitchens. I'm not sure I want to spend a 1st round pick on a guy like that.

I like the rest, but not so sure you're getting Akers at the end of the 3rd round. I think top half of the 3rd is his floor so you'd be moving up or taking him at the end of the 2nd.

As for a TE, don't sleep on Brycen Hopkins. Kid is a stud. One really accurate source has him as late 3rd right now.


I haven’t watched a lot of film on him - just highlights from this season. The physical package is there and perfect for a WLB/nickel LB in today’s NFL.

His 2019 highlights show him crashing downhill well on run plays and taking direct routes to the ball carrier, even fighting through some traffic to get there.

He’s not perfect, but I think he would be an upgrade for KC and good value if he’s there at 32.

duncan_idaho 12-20-2019 10:09 AM

Ran a few mocks on NFL Draft Network, just for fun.

Which do we like better:

A)
Creed Humphrey (C)
Bryce Hall (CB)
Troy Dye (LB)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
Colby Parkinson (TE)

B)
Shaun Wade (CB)
Netane Muti (LG)
Cam Akers (RB)
Jordyn Brooks (LB, Texas Tech)
Albert Okwuegbunum (TE)

C)
Kenneth Murray (Lb)
Darryl Williams (G)
Essang Bassey (CB)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
Quintez Cepheus (WR)

'Hamas' Jenkins 12-20-2019 10:24 AM

MU STH here. I would not have Albert O on my board at all. He's a dog.

duncan_idaho 12-20-2019 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14667216)
MU STH here. I would not have Albert O on my board at all. He's a dog.


That has been my opinion and was until I started reading mocks/playing around with it this week.

I think it still is, really. I can see the case for taking a swing, if he falls far enough.

Buehler445 12-20-2019 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14667023)
Well, to be fair, Reiter didn't look like the dumpster fire that he's become back then. He looked 'serviceable'. Now he's been exposed as a 300 pound bag of dogshit.

Also, the defense was SUCH a huge problem we had glaring needs.

Now I feel pretty good about the defensive situation. Next up, offensive line.

I agree. But we are going to have to continue to work on the D just because so many contracts are up.

Chris Meck 12-20-2019 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 14667299)
I agree. But we are going to have to continue to work on the D just because so many contracts are up.

well, yeah, but that's kind of the NFL every year.

I think we can re-sign Jones and bring back who we want on defense.

I've just started my usual late season morning routine, in which I do two or three mock drafts on a simulator while I have my coffee.

Of course, it's super early, and of course, nobody REALLY knows where anyone outside of maybe the top ten prospects will go, but so far it looks like if you want a day one upgrade at Center, you're going to have to do it in round one and possibly round two... Same with corner. Same with LB. Guards and running backs you could maybe get it to round three.

I just think that the OL and center in particular is the MUST upgrade area, as it affects Mahomes health and the ability of the offense to function.

I think we can do what we need to with the DL and bring back a corner or two on reasonable deals. LB corps has issues, but is no longer the disaster it was.

I'd like a C, a CB, a LB, and a RB in that first 4, and probably in that order.

Buehler445 12-20-2019 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14667395)
well, yeah, but that's kind of the NFL every year.

I think we can re-sign Jones and bring back who we want on defense.

I've just started my usual late season morning routine, in which I do two or three mock drafts on a simulator while I have my coffee.

Of course, it's super early, and of course, nobody REALLY knows where anyone outside of maybe the top ten prospects will go, but so far it looks like if you want a day one upgrade at Center, you're going to have to do it in round one and possibly round two... Same with corner. Same with LB. Guards and running backs you could maybe get it to round three.

I just think that the OL and center in particular is the MUST upgrade area, as it affects Mahomes health and the ability of the offense to function.

I think we can do what we need to with the DL and bring back a corner or two on reasonable deals. LB corps has issues, but is no longer the disaster it was.

I'd like a C, a CB, a LB, and a RB in that first 4, and probably in that order.

Swap CB and LB and I'm right with you.

DJ's left nut 12-20-2019 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14667395)
I'd like a C, a CB, a LB, and a RB in that first 4, and probably in that order.

I'd like the LB upgrade but I think it's a pipe dream. Hitchens isn't a complete disaster anymore and they're just not gonna eat that much money.

I'd be pretty content with C, G, CB, RB in the first 4 rounds in any order. I hate that we'll need to neglect a developmental OT again but we just have needs on the interior that are far too great.

O.city 12-20-2019 05:48 PM

I think if you have to go the developmental/ cheap FA route, you do it at LB'er again or maybe at CB.

It's just time to invest in the interior OL for sure. I'd love to really go at CB too, but they need to first and foremost keep Mahomes upright.

Chief Northman 12-20-2019 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 14667185)
Ran a few mocks on NFL Draft Network, just for fun.

Which do we like better:

A)
Creed Humphrey (C)
Bryce Hall (CB)
Troy Dye (LB)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
Colby Parkinson (TE)

B)
Shaun Wade (CB)
Netane Muti (LG)
Cam Akers (RB)
Jordyn Brooks (LB, Texas Tech)
Albert Okwuegbunum (TE)

C)
Kenneth Murray (Lb)
Darryl Williams (G)
Essang Bassey (CB)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
Quintez Cepheus (WR)

A) Humphrey
B) Albert O
C) Murray

Lol.

BryanBusby 12-21-2019 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 14664178)
I looked at 4-5 mocks done in the past week, and he was going in the early second in all of them, so it seemed safe.

That may change as teams look at FA and the draft and realize the scarcity of players with that 3-down skill set.

Regardless, they should be able to address LB, CB, C, or LG in the draft.

Realistically he should go in the range the Chiefs are picking, but there will be that one team that will take him too early with no plan. Happens every time.

RunKC 12-21-2019 10:53 AM

You’d think Corner will be our first pick due to the importance, but the FA class at that position is loaded with decent players that could be had for cheap ala Breeland, so who knows.

I would love the Wisconsin kid, but honestly I’d like to trade down and gain a 3rd and still be able to get a good talent like Creed Humphrey with an extra top 100 pick.

I agree with DJ in regards to just getting the BPA bc we could use that in most places on the team. Basically anywhere applies for or 1st pick outside of QB, OT and S.

Keep an eye on DL. Probably won’t be able to afford Ogbah, Tanoh is in his last year and Speaks is only here based on draft status/Veach’s pride. Spags loves having a deep DL rotation and Andy loves fatties.

O.city 12-21-2019 12:02 PM

I just hate trading out of the first and losing that fifth year option

If you could say grab another 2nd to go back I’d think about it though.

Chargem 12-22-2019 04:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14668764)
I just hate trading out of the first and losing that fifth year option

If you could say grab another 2nd to go back I’d think about it though.

Who would give up two 2nd's for the 32nd pick?

RunKC 12-22-2019 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14668764)
I just hate trading out of the first and losing that fifth year option

If you could say grab another 2nd to go back I’d think about it though.

Players are trying to get rid of the franchise tag and 5th year option to move towards and NBA style structure. I think more and more players are going to start holding out after their 3rd season if they are good enough.

And honestly in a game like the NFL I don’t blame them one bit.

O.city 12-23-2019 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 14670855)
Players are trying to get rid of the franchise tag and 5th year option to move towards and NBA style structure. I think more and more players are going to start holding out after their 3rd season if they are good enough.

And honestly in a game like the NFL I don’t blame them one bit.

I doubt they care too much or will work to hard to get rid the tag. It doesn’t affect the vast majority of the league. Wouldn’t expect them to give much energy to that.

Coogs 12-24-2019 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14667848)
I'd like the LB upgrade but I think it's a pipe dream. Hitchens isn't a complete disaster anymore and they're just not gonna eat that much money.

I'd be pretty content with C, G, CB, RB in the first 4 rounds in any order. I hate that we'll need to neglect a developmental OT again but we just have needs on the interior that are far too great.

Personally, I don't think OT can be left out of the equation. Schwartz will be 31 in June. Fisher is approaching 30. It's getting time to look to the future at that position as well. Better to be to early at that spot, than a year to late.

KChiefs1 12-24-2019 10:05 AM

Great mock!

I like it.

Chris Meck 12-26-2019 09:49 AM

I like it although in a lot of mocks I see I think you're too high for Muti. I've seen him go as low as the 4th.

So, if we were to take Creed Humphrey in the 2nd maybe, and then a Guard in the 4th it'd be a perfect draft.

I like Akers a lot. I like Murray too, although if you feel good about the injury situation Dylan Moses might fall to #32 and you'd have to take him instead.

duncan_idaho 01-17-2020 04:57 PM

Updated: I had a lot of spare time at work today.

Today’s exercise involves tagging and trading Chris Jones to Tampa for their first, third, and 2021 second. It’s a tough call but a reasonable scenario for KC.

Here’s a plan based on that:

1.14 AJ Epenesa, DL, Iowa. Epenesa is a powerful, versatile DL. He might be a little light to play DT on all downs, he slides inside nicely on pass downs and has enough power to play some early down snaps there, too. Also like Javon Kinlaw as a DL option here, who is more of a true DT.

1.32 Nick Harris, C, Washington. Washington is very Rodney Hudson from descriptions. He’s athletic and powerful in run game, but can pass block and is athletic. Would be a major upgrade from Reiter.

2.63 Cameron Dantzler, CB, Miss State. Dantzler is a physical specimen, but really this is just “best CB who fits scheme” for me. If Patrick Queen was here I’d be all over that, but his stock is sky rocketing.

3.76 Jordyn Brooks, MLB, Texas Tech. The Red Raider MLB has potential to be a 3-down backer. Decent measureables and runs well enough to be good in coverage.

3.96 Cam Akers, RB, Florida State. Similar to Dantzler, best RB left here for me. Not sure Akers makes it here, but there are plenty of similar alternatives. Clyde Edwards-Helaire intrigues me a bunch.

4.128 Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri. Elliott is a physical specimen who graded out well and was productive for Mizzou. His technique needs some work, but he has really great measureables.

5.160 WR Denzel Mims, Baylor. I’ve developed a bit of a crush on Mims of late. He’s a track guy at 6-3 who seems to have good short area quickness, too. Could see him being a nice weapon and is a guy who has more in the tank.

With the money I’m saving on Jones, I focus on re-signing a couple of solid holdovers like Breeland and DeMarkus Robinson.

If I can add a veteran G/C to help upgrade a second spot on the OL, I’ll take a stab at that.

Tough to move on from Jones, but the depth of players I’m adding instead of him (first round DL, potential starting LB, and maybe a solid upgrade at LG to pair with an upgrade at C) just offers too much value not to do it.

Wilson8 01-17-2020 05:37 PM

I like it. It covers a lot of the areas of need. I really like Chris Jones but the money may force a trade and that would be a nice haul of players.

For at least a couple of years I've wanted a backup TE that could kind of fill in if Kelce missed some time. I've given up on drafting or even signing a real good free agent.

A player that I think has some potential but maybe not the steep price tag, is TE Nick Vannett, Age 26, 6-6, 260, 10 inch hands, decent TE speed. He had an unremarkable career at Ohio State with 4 years, 55 catches, 585 yards and 6 TDs, yet he was drafted in the 3rd round (94) by Seattle Seahawks. Nick was traded to Pittsburgh Steelers this last season for a 2020 5th round draft pick. In 4 years in the NFL he has 61 catches, 591 yards and 4 TDs. In 2018 Vannett played 49% of Seattle offensive snap counts, but mainly as a blocker. Nick Vannett's nick name is "Baby Gronk".

I know I've lowered my backup TE standards, But I think maybe Travis Kelce, re-signing Blake Bell at a team friendly deal, and an inexpensive contract with a guy like Nick Vannett might help the Chiefs.

Chargem 01-18-2020 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilson8 (Post 14730958)
I like it. It covers a lot of the areas of need. I really like Chris Jones but the money may force a trade and that would be a nice haul of players.

For at least a couple of years I've wanted a backup TE that could kind of fill in if Kelce missed some time. I've given up on drafting or even signing a real good free agent.

A player that I think has some potential but maybe not the steep price tag, is TE Nick Vannett, Age 26, 6-6, 260, 10 inch hands, decent TE speed. He had an unremarkable career at Ohio State with 4 years, 55 catches, 585 yards and 6 TDs, yet he was drafted in the 3rd round (94) by Seattle Seahawks. Nick was traded to Pittsburgh Steelers this last season for a 2020 5th round draft pick. In 4 years in the NFL he has 61 catches, 591 yards and 4 TDs. In 2018 Vannett played 49% of Seattle offensive snap counts, but mainly as a blocker. Nick Vannett's nick name is "Baby Gronk".

I know I've lowered my backup TE standards, But I think maybe Travis Kelce, re-signing Blake Bell at a team friendly deal, and an inexpensive contract with a guy like Nick Vannett might help the Chiefs.

I would love the for Chiefs to draft a TE but it doesn't seem the year for it, unless its a 4th/5th round flyer on a guy. Lovett (I think that was his name?) got some hype in the pre-season this year as a FB/TE type guy, my hope is that he turns out to be a better TE2 than Bell and Bell becomes TE3 and then maybe they take a guy high in the draft the following year.

duncan_idaho 01-18-2020 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chargem (Post 14731697)
I would love the for Chiefs to draft a TE but it doesn't seem the year for it, unless its a 4th/5th round flyer on a guy. Lovett (I think that was his name?) got some hype in the pre-season this year as a FB/TE type guy, my hope is that he turns out to be a better TE2 than Bell and Bell becomes TE3 and then maybe they take a guy high in the draft the following year.


Yeah, I don’t think there’s enough TE depth to do it early.

Albert Okwuegbunum would be an interesting flyer late. Big boom/bust potential. If he made to them in the fifth. I think he’s probably a bust, but he has a lot of natural ability b

duncan_idaho 01-23-2020 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 14730876)
Updated: I had a lot of spare time at work today.

Today’s exercise involves tagging and trading Chris Jones to Tampa for their first, third, and 2021 second. It’s a tough call but a reasonable scenario for KC.

Here’s a plan based on that:

1.14 AJ Epenesa, DL, Iowa. Epenesa is a powerful, versatile DL. He might be a little light to play DT on all downs, he slides inside nicely on pass downs and has enough power to play some early down snaps there, too. Also like Javon Kinlaw as a DL option here, who is more of a true DT.

1.32 Nick Harris, C, Washington. Washington is very Rodney Hudson from descriptions. He’s athletic and powerful in run game, but can pass block and is athletic. Would be a major upgrade from Reiter.

2.63 Cameron Dantzler, CB, Miss State. Dantzler is a physical specimen, but really this is just “best CB who fits scheme” for me. If Patrick Queen was here I’d be all over that, but his stock is sky rocketing.

3.76 Jordyn Brooks, MLB, Texas Tech. The Red Raider MLB has potential to be a 3-down backer. Decent measureables and runs well enough to be good in coverage.

3.96 Cam Akers, RB, Florida State. Similar to Dantzler, best RB left here for me. Not sure Akers makes it here, but there are plenty of similar alternatives. Clyde Edwards-Helaire intrigues me a bunch.

4.128 Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri. Elliott is a physical specimen who graded out well and was productive for Mizzou. His technique needs some work, but he has really great measureables.

5.160 WR Denzel Mims, Baylor. I’ve developed a bit of a crush on Mims of late. He’s a track guy at 6-3 who seems to have good short area quickness, too. Could see him being a nice weapon and is a guy who has more in the tank.

With the money I’m saving on Jones, I focus on re-signing a couple of solid holdovers like Breeland and DeMarkus Robinson.

If I can add a veteran G/C to help upgrade a second spot on the OL, I’ll take a stab at that.

Tough to move on from Jones, but the depth of players I’m adding instead of him (first round DL, potential starting LB, and maybe a solid upgrade at LG to pair with an upgrade at C) just offers too much value not to do it.


Mims is killing it at the senior bowl. Probably pushing himself to Day 2.

Akeem Davis-Gaither is another LB I liked that I was hoping Moght be there in the 4th/5th, but he’s also blowing up in Mobile.

The Franchise 01-23-2020 07:42 PM

If you’re going to trade Jones.....then try and extend Watkins to lower his cap hit and keep him over Robinson. I don’t think Robinson will be worth the money he’s going to get on the FA market.

DaneMcCloud 01-23-2020 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 14748407)
If you’re going to trade Jones.....then try and extend Watkins to lower his cap hit and keep him over Robinson. I don’t think Robinson will be worth the money he’s going to get on the FA market.

What's Robinson worth on the open market? His numbers don't even match Chris Conley's, who tore an ACL the year prior to hitting free agency and was always injured and missing games. Conley's deal was only $4.5 million over two years.

I've never been a fan of Robinson, as he's always been more smoke than fire. But maybe he'll light it up in the Super Bowl and cause some team to overpay for his services.

Otherwise, I'd expect him to be dirt cheap.

DJ's left nut 01-24-2020 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud (Post 14748538)
What's Robinson worth on the open market? His numbers don't even match Chris Conley's, who tore an ACL the year prior to hitting free agency and was always injured and missing games. Conley's deal was only $4.5 million over two years.

I've never been a fan of Robinson, as he's always been more smoke than fire. But maybe he'll light it up in the Super Bowl and cause some team to overpay for his services.

Otherwise, I'd expect him to be dirt cheap.

If he can find a way to get a contract that yields us a 4th round comp pick, you gotta let him walk and it's not even a question, IMO.

Watkins effort last week might have worked him back into a 3rd/4th round value as a trade piece.

I think I've come to the conclusion that a LOT of this comes down to next Sunday. Win it and you can bank your chips. At that point you go ahead and deal Jones and Watkins. You let Robinson leave for the comp pick. You re-stock the draft cupboard and do a soft re-load around the key pieces of your squad.

You'll have earned the franchise capital to do that. Win it this year and you can easily make a decision that shrinks your window a bit in 2020 in exchange for pushing it open longer and wider thereafter.

But if you lose Sunday you probably have to maintain a very aggressive posture for the 2020 season.

Hoover 01-24-2020 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749105)
If he can find a way to get a contract that yields us a 4th round comp pick, you gotta let him walk and it's not even a question, IMO.

Watkins effort last week might have worked him back into a 3rd/4th round value as a trade piece.

I think I've come to the conclusion that a LOT of this comes down to next Sunday. Win it and you can bank your chips. At that point you go ahead and deal Jones and Watkins. You let Robinson leave for the comp pick. You re-stock the draft cupboard and do a soft re-load around the key pieces of your squad.

You'll have earned the franchise capital to do that. Win it this year and you can easily make a decision that shrinks your window a bit in 2020 in exchange for pushing it open longer and wider thereafter.

But if you lose Sunday you probably have to maintain a very aggressive posture for the 2020 season.

Look at what Sanu and Sanders fetched via trades.

49ers sent a 3rd and 4th for Sanders and a 5th.
Pats sent a 2nd for Sanu.

Sanu is under contract in 2020 for 6.5 Million
Sanders is a fracking free agent after the Super Bowl.

Don't tell me a guy like Watkins doesn't have value. I mean if I was Green Bay, I'd be all over a guy like that to play opposite of Davante Adams. Watkins is exactly what Rogers and the Packers need. Yeah, you have to pay him, but is going to cost you a mid-round pick.

DaneMcCloud 01-24-2020 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749105)
If he can find a way to get a contract that yields us a 4th round comp pick, you gotta let him walk and it's not even a question, IMO.

Watkins effort last week might have worked him back into a 3rd/4th round value as a trade piece.

I think I've come to the conclusion that a LOT of this comes down to next Sunday. Win it and you can bank your chips. At that point you go ahead and deal Jones and Watkins. You let Robinson leave for the comp pick. You re-stock the draft cupboard and do a soft re-load around the key pieces of your squad.

But if you lose Sunday you probably have to maintain a very aggressive posture for the 2020 season.

While I agree that February 2nd will determine numerous personnel decisions, I think it would be a very risky move to allow Robinson to walk while also trading Sammy Watkins.

At that point, the Chiefs would have only two reliable and proven receivers on their roster in Hill and Hardman. And while the 2020 draft has a ton of wide receivers and running backs that could contribute at some point during the 2020 season, if Hill or Hardman were to be injured for any amount of time, the Chiefs would presumably be left with the trifecta Byron Pringle (26), Gehrig Deiter (27) and Marcus Kemp (25), none of which have any significant playing time nor have they proven to be game changers on any level.

I know there's been a lot of push towards drafting a center and/or a guard early but I don't think those positions are as important as some believe, as the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl after losing multiple starting and backup offensive lineman for multiple games and in some games, the entire left side of the line for several games in a row.

It's obviously really early in the draft process but I expect Veach to trade out of the #32 spot in order to accumulate more picks, unless by some crazy happenstance, a player that they cannot pass is available at that point. But with their expected cap restraints heading into Mahomes huge contract year and the money due to players like Hill, Clark and presumably, Chris Jones, he'll want to take advantage of "cheap" players.

And before it's pointed out that "5th year option!" would be lost by trading back at #32, there's a chance that will go Bye Bye in the next CBA, rendering that option moot.

I realize that this is most likely an unpopular opinion but if I was running the Chiefs 2020 draft, I'd load up on offensive players, especially running back, WR, TE and guard. I'd make this offense so unstoppable that opposing teams would have no chance to outscore the Chiefs.

O.city 01-24-2020 02:07 PM

I’d go offense.

I think woth the new cba there’s gonna be enough money that the chiefs can make things work however within the realm of reasonable

DJ's left nut 01-24-2020 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud (Post 14749744)
While I agree that February 2nd will determine numerous personnel decisions, I think it would be a very risky move to allow Robinson to walk while also trading Sammy Watkins.

At that point, the Chiefs would have only two reliable and proven receivers on their roster in Hill and Hardman. And while the 2020 draft has a ton of wide receivers and running backs that could contribute at some point during the 2020 season, if Hill or Hardman were to be injured for any amount of time, the Chiefs would presumably be left with the trifecta Byron Pringle (26), Gehrig Deiter (27) and Marcus Kemp (25), none of which have any significant playing time nor have they proven to be game changers on any level.

I know there's been a lot of push towards drafting a center and/or a guard early but I don't think those positions are as important as some believe, as the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl after losing multiple starting and backup offensive lineman for multiple games and in some games, the entire left side of the line for several games in a row.

It's obviously really early in the draft process but I expect Veach to trade out of the #32 spot in order to accumulate more picks, unless by some crazy happenstance, a player that they cannot pass is available at that point. But with their expected cap restraints heading into Mahomes huge contract year and the money due to players like Hill, Clark and presumably, Chris Jones, he'll want to take advantage of "cheap" players.

And before it's pointed out that "5th year option!" would be lost by trading back at #32, there's a chance that will go Bye Bye in the next CBA, rendering that option moot.

I realize that this is most likely an unpopular opinion but if I was running the Chiefs 2020 draft, I'd load up on offensive players, especially running back, WR, TE and guard. I'd make this offense so unstoppable that opposing teams would have no chance to outscore the Chiefs.

If the option's in the contract, it's in the contract. The new CBA wouldn't retroactively extinguish it.

Ultimately I don't have any problem at all focusing on offense. My only concern is reaching at ANYTHING. At 32, odds are you're not finding anyone with a true '1st round grade' anyway but if there's someone that's a cut above the rest of your guys, hang position and take him.

Offense or defense just shouldn't matter in the draft when you know you're gonna have to cover a lot of holes w/ rookie level deals in the coming seasons due to Mahomes contract.

We're gonna make hard decisions everywhere and at WR is the spot where Mahomes can most easily make chicken salad from chicken shit. And it's also where you can find low-cost vets looking for 'make-good' deals, IMO.

They would be well served to take advantage of a market efficiency there, IMO. That's how you're able to use the force multplier effect of your all-universe QB in a way that helps offset the costs of his contract.

DaneMcCloud 01-24-2020 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749841)
If the option's in the contract, it's in the contract. The new CBA wouldn't retroactively extinguish it.

That's most likely true, unless the Union & Owners decide to retroactively void those 5th year contracts in order to get something else: 17 games? No THC/CBD testing? More time off? Larger game day rosters?

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749841)
Ultimately I don't have any problem at all focusing on offense. My only concern is reaching at ANYTHING. At 32, odds are you're not finding anyone with a true '1st round grade' anyway but if there's someone that's a cut above the rest of your guys, hang position and take him.

I agree, unless it's a stacked position like RB or WR. Do you take JK Dobbins at #32 or trade back, add a 3rd, and grab a player who's slightly less talented with that pick instead?

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749841)
We're gonna make hard decisions everywhere and at WR is the spot where Mahomes can most easily make chicken salad from chicken shit. And it's also where you can find low-cost vets looking for 'make-good' deals, IMO.

They would be well served to take advantage of a market efficiency there, IMO. That's how you're able to use the force multplier effect of your all-universe QB in a way that helps offset the costs of his contract.

I don't know, man. I'm not singling out Robinson as anything special and his drops are certainly an issue but the guy is a really solid-if-not-spectacular downfield blocker. Sammy Watkins has the ability to take over games and we've seen him do that on the biggest stage when it counts most. While I most certainly agree that Mahomes can make any receiver "Look Good", he can't make a WR receiver be consistent. Consistently block, consistently make difficult catches, consistently run and get open, etc. and so on.

If that was the case, Robinson, Pringle and Deiter would have looked other-worldly at times and I just didn't see that at any point in 2019. *

The other thing to keep in mind is that the 2020 WR Free Agent market, outside of a few huge names which will cost as much as Watkins, just isn't that intrigiuging.

Sometimes, it's better the Devil You Know Than the Devil You Don't.

DJ's left nut 01-24-2020 03:06 PM

Just depends on the cost. If I can save $13 million and pick up a draft pick by moving Watkins and replacing him with, say, Nelson Agholar at $2 million, I'm gonna do that.

If Robinson can be brought back on a deal that's effectively 2/$7 million, I'll be just fine having him bridge the gap. But if I need to go to something like 3/$18, I'm out.

It isn't as though anyone really wants to blow up this WR corps, but it's a position where we can find some 'make-due' options and may just have to hope for sustained health from Hill/Hardman.

A $40 million quarterback means that you have to cut back on luxury items and having a 3rd (or 4th) starting caliber WR is most assuredly a luxury item at that point.

DaneMcCloud 01-24-2020 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749902)
Just depends on the cost. If I can save $13 million and pick up a draft pick by moving Watkins and replacing him with, say, Nelson Agholar at $2 million, I'm gonna do that.

If Robinson can be brought back on a deal that's effectively 2/$7 million, I'll be just fine having him bridge the gap. But if I need to go to something like 3/$18, I'm out.

It isn't as though anyone really wants to blow up this WR corps, but it's a position where we can find some 'make-due' options and may just have to hope for sustained health from Hill/Hardman.

A $40 million quarterback means that you have to cut back on luxury items and having a 3rd (or 4th) starting caliber WR is most assuredly a luxury item at that point.

Man, if Robinson can get more than $2.5 million per, which is more than Chris Conley received in FA last year (and with better numbers to boot), more power to him. Take that money and run.

But if paying the QB means that the Chiefs have to start all over with developing their WR corp while signing garbage players like Nelson Agholar, this fan base had better put the kibosh on expecting multiple Super Bowl wins with a roster filled with dopes after their starters.

The running back position was atrocious in 2019 and it took a good bit of luck to get the #2 seed because of it. Can you imagine a WR corp filled with Hardman and a three other scrubs if Hill was again to miss significant time?

For the most part of my life and Chiefs fandom, it's been fun to play GM. But moving forward, I don't envy Veach or anyone in the college or pro personnel departments because their jobs will become 100 times more difficult after Mahomes signs his Supermax deal.

duncan_idaho 01-24-2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749902)
Just depends on the cost. If I can save $13 million and pick up a draft pick by moving Watkins and replacing him with, say, Nelson Agholar at $2 million, I'm gonna do that.

If Robinson can be brought back on a deal that's effectively 2/$7 million, I'll be just fine having him bridge the gap. But if I need to go to something like 3/$18, I'm out.

It isn't as though anyone really wants to blow up this WR corps, but it's a position where we can find some 'make-due' options and may just have to hope for sustained health from Hill/Hardman.

A $40 million quarterback means that you have to cut back on luxury items and having a 3rd (or 4th) starting caliber WR is most assuredly a luxury item at that point.


Yeah, I’m down for this.

Watkins cap number becomes just the base salary if he’s traded, right? 1 year at $14 million is probably a deal one of those teams with cap space is willing to make. I’m sure you could find a team in the NFC interested in that for a 3rd round pick or maybe even a 4th.

That would give KC the option of finding a way to keep Jones.

I think they can bring Robinson back cheaply and would like to see that done just for continuity’s sake, and spend a pick on a WR you hope to develop into a good #2 who does some of the things that Watkins does.

Having another #3 might put you in range to draft a WR there.

I really think Mims could be dynamite in KC’s offense. He’s huge, is a hands-catcher, has track speed, and creates quick separation with good route running.

DaneMcCloud 02-27-2020 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14749841)
If the option's in the contract, it's in the contract. The new CBA wouldn't retroactively extinguish it.

As I mentioned last month, the 5th Year Option would likely change or be dropped altogether. For now, it looks like it's the former:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...h-year-option/

Per a league source, the new labor deal would wipe out the current formula for determining the amount of the fifth-year option, replacing it with a formula premised on performance or playing time.

Under the revised approach, which would apply to the 2018 draft class, a player’s position would take precedence over draft slot. For any player who qualifies for two Pro Bowls in his first three years, the fifth-year option becomes the franchise tag amount. For any player who qualifies for one Pro Bowl, the fifth-year option becomes the transition tag amount.

While this new formula helps players who play and/or play well, it makes it cheaper to squat on a top-10 player who for whatever reason doesn’t play much and/or who doesn’t play well. This device could become particularly useful for teams who draft quarterbacks in the top 10 and decide to squat on them for multiple years.

If the top-10 player doesn’t play, his fifth-year salary no longer will be the fourth-year transition tender at his position but the number currently applicable to players drafted from No. 11 through No. 32: The average of the third- through 25th-highest-paid players at the position.

Thus, for purposes of the option, draft slot becomes meaningless. Playing time or performance would be the only thing that would alter the number paid to players in their fifth years.


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