Justin Houston
 

Am I the only one who thinks this is likely his last season here?

He’s the biggest financial responsibility on this team and he’s not the same. I get that he’s still pretty good, but his knee is not the same as it used to be. It seems like that will not get better in future years. Here’s my reasoning:

1. He still has to be motivated.
In the Ravens game, Houston himself said Justin Hamilton had to motivate him to make a play. That is a pretty telling sign to me.

2. He has quit on plays.
Just last week he quit on a play where he could have tried to make a tackle on the RB who scored.

3. Being a great run stuffer and decent pass rusher isn’t worth the price tag.

4. We drafted Breeland Speaks.
Veach specifically looked for Breeland Speaks and trade up for him, who coincidentally relates to some things Houston does (albeit not as good). He’s a strong player who can hold up against the run and drop in coverage. It seems like Veach calculated this pick to replace Houston after getting Speaks a year in the NFL and a training program.

It seems like this is the time that good organizations sell these players for assets. He’s turning 30 next month.

I’m thinking they could try to get him to restructure, but why not use him to get a 2nd rd pick or trade up in the first rd for a good young player?

If you let Houston go then you'll probably end up having to keep some other scrubs simply because you just can't turn over the entire defense in one offseason.

I'd rather pay Houston $20m for his production than keep a bunch of Sorensons and Raglands around.

I don't see many teams giving up a 2nd for that price tag. I'd be surprised if we could get a 4th.

I don’t think I’d cut him, but if they could get a day 2 draft pick, that’d be awesome.

I would absolutely ask him to take a pay cut. The way I see it, if he doesn’t show consistent effort and will to win over this next month, get rid of his ass. Yeah he’s better than what is behind him, but we’re paying him to be an elite player when it seems like he only tries half of the time.

But this is all pending on keeping Ford. I would absolutely not get rid of both this offseason.

I'd get rid of his salary and throw some numbers at the position. Markus Golden and Shane Ray are two reclamation projects that I think together could equal the recent production of Houston at a fraction of the cost.

At this point I’m all for spending money on proven defensive players. I have the utmost trust in Andy to find offensive players in the draft. He’s done it forever.

I think the best plan might be to get a new DC, free up money and get a bunch of solid defenders in FA while trying again in the draft.

If a corner or linebacker we love is at around pick 25, use Houston to trade up.

I LOVE what Ford has done this year, but even paying him long term scares the shit out of me. He’s even been banged up a few times this year and just played through it.

I have little faith that he will be able to stay on the field consistently throughout a contract extension. Stop me if that sounds familiar...

Preston Smith would make a nice replacement for Houston if they stick with a 3-4 and should be half the price. Food for thought.

I've been a staunch defender of Houston for some time now, but seeing him quit on that play last week was the last straw for me. Trade him for whatever you can get for him. I put a 4th and swap of 6th's in my mock. I don't see them getting much more than that to be honest. Maybe a 3rd. Surely not a 2nd.

Which play?

Houston did a lot of contain stuff last week because Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson. He just kind of strafed the LOS when Wilson would roll or slide toward him.

I was on a TD run by the RB. Later in the game iirc. Pretty sure someone also posted a video of it in the Lounge but not sure. He basically stopped playing and watched the guy run in when he was close enough to at least make an attempt at tackling him before he got to the end zone. It was a bullshit play on his behalf.

He's actually talking about the Seahawk's first TD of the game.

Houston fights through an OL. It's actually hilarious the ease with which Houston just throws this dude to the side, but unfortunately Houston ended up throwing the guy in the direction that the rusher was running so it effectively sealed him off from making the play..

But that wasn't a lack of effort. People just see what they want to see.

Houston is a proven player. We know we're not going to get 15+ sacks out of the guy anymore, but he's A+ in run support and is actually surprisingly good when dropped into coverage. I'm just not sure we can afford to ship out one of, like, three solid contributors we have on this defense.

Would you prefer to bring in more Hitchens types? That dude's cap hit is like $9m and he's absolute garbage. I'd pay for three Houston's before I'd pay for two Hitchenses.

Bullshit. He had the tackle beat while Carson was still at the LOS and then didn't make any step towards the ball carrier. He stood there. The tackle was beyond him to the end zone side and not directly impeding his progrees. It was not a complete lack of effort, but he didn't close down the line like he should have to make the tackle. There was no reason the OT should have recovered more quickly than it would have taken Houston to step in and make the tackle, or at least an attempt at the tackle. It's a classic case of what is wrong with the entire defense. They may make the play to get into a good position to close but then they just stop and wait as if the ball carrier will come to them. I'm tired of watching it.

Houston and a first for Bobby Wagner

Okay, back to reality

I don't know why the **** you couldn't. Are we scared about losing pieces from a bottom tier Defense?

This is a perfect time to gut shit that doesn't have a long term outlook.

I’m frustrated as well but I just don’t think that’s feasible. We’ll have to keep some pieces. Why not keep the few that actually work and turn over the many that don’t?

Because Justin Houston is not worth that price tag. He’s been paid a shitload of money for 3 years now.

We need money to get players to fix this defense now.

Either take a sizeable restructure in next years cap hit or GTFO.

They gotta start shedding off bad deals to pay for ascending talent.

I have always liked Houston a lot- but he was clearly dogging it on Several plays vs. the Seahags. That is unacceptable. If he does not show up the next 2 games, they should cut ties with him. Berry, and Watkins as well. Take the massive dead money hit now, so in a few years, we can actually build a team around Mahomes instead of a bunch of overpaid bench warmers. These are the worst contracts on the books.

That's what I'm saying, though. That formula rarely works.

**** it, I'm down.

We were missing Houston for the better part of 2015 and 2016 and still did pretty well without him.

Let's just can all these ****ers.. I'd just rather start with like five other guys first.

Houston making plays like that is what we need in order for him to stick around.

That's why I'm OK with keeping him. Obviously he's not the same guy who recorded 22 sacks a handful of years ago, but assuming full health he's clearly a guy who can give us 10-15 QB takedowns a year.

And what's hilarious is that he actually has more FFs this season on only 9 sacks than he did the season in which he had 22. He's added another element to his game.

The guy's still got value. He's clearly overpaid but we've got cap room and I'm really not a fan of overpaying for FA help.

Houston definitely stepped up his game today.

The decision for 2019 is only one. Keep or cut. The likely decision will be to keep. You don't want to extend/restructure in 2019, I don't think that comes into play. That decision will be for 2020 where it then becomes extend/restructure or cut. If he continues the level of play he's at now, then the extend/restructure option becomes a good one. That all said, so long as there aren't any half-assed efforts going forward. I've seen Houston be one of few giving an all-out effort. What bothered me most was to see him not give full effort, even once. That disease cannot trickle down the team's best players and biggest leaders.

At this juncture, I consider the state of the defense as a keep Houston and Ford and cut ties with Berry situation. Berry just has to go. You can't run a team keeping guys that can't play around, especially ones on big contracts. Keep that defensive front intact as much as possible and go out and get some DBs that can play in the NFL.

I agree. Ford/Houston/Jones is such a deadly trio. It’d be nice to keep it together another year.

Make or break time now. He has a pretty nasty habit of going MIA in playoff games. Time to buck the trend.

That's literally our entire roster in some form or another lol

Can't cut everyone.

No, but do you cut the guy making 700k or the guy making 20+ million.

I look to cut Sorenson, Parker, Ragland, Scandrick, Murray, Nelson and probably Bailey before I cut Houston.

Having Houston on the field is a net positive. He's good for a huge splash play probably every 2-3 games on average while giving consistent effort and solid run defense on a play-to-play basis. Plus he's intelligent and doesn't commit penalties.

Sorenson's got a $5.2m cap hit, Nelson $2m, Scandrick $1.2m, Ragland $1m, Bailey $8m. The only one of that lot worth a damn is Bailey but I'm not sure we couldn't get 75% of his production for at or near league minimum.

You cut Houston and we're looking at Speaks playing 90% of snaps. If he goes down you're looking at Zombo starting again. No thanks.

I say keep Houston one more season. Find his replacement. Keep him around at a greatly reduced pay scale after his contract is up if he appears to still have some juice.

Parker, Scandrick, Nelson and Bailey are UFAs anyway, right? I'm all for showing Ragland and Sorenson the door, though.

Probably. I know Bailey's in a contract year and Parker and Scandrick were last minute trash heap signings.

That's like $12m coming off the books there alone. Could free up another $6-ish mil by canning Sorenson and Ragland too.

excuse me, but we refer to hitchens as "the hitman" here

9 sacks in 12 games. Off the top of my head that extrapolates to at least 12 sacks in 16 games. If Houston comes out of the season clean he can start next season as healthy as he's been since the spinning heel kick to the kneecap. He'll have a chance to get 15 sacks in 2019. He's made some huge plays since he's come back from his hammy issue this year. It would be great if he'd restructure but I would keep him either way.

I think Houston would take a pay cut.

1) He gets to play on a contender with Mahomes.

2) He gets to play with Jones and Ford.

3) He get to stay a Chief.

4) He’s not getting $21M on the open market per year. So you may as well shave a little off the top.

Does he get to play with Ford? And Jones is only currently under contract for 1 more year.

If Houston balls out in the coming weeks, change part of his 2019 salary to a bonus. That would give him a nice gift up front and save us money on the cap.

Houston and Ford both finish 2018 in the top 5 among edge rushers for PFFs pass rush productivity rate stat. (Percentage of pass rush attempts that end in a sack, QB hit, or hurry).

Let’s hope they bring it for January.

Dude balled the **** out. Keep this guy and try to make
It work with Jones and Ford.

Yeah he was a beast

The success of Ford, Houston and Jones as a pass rushing trio makes me want to stay with a 3-4 defense and try to sign Ford this off season.

Houston has a cap hit of ~$21m, I read that if we cut him we can save ~$14m against the cap. My question is if we were to trade him would we save the full ~$21m? Also, what do you believe he'd be worth in a trade?

Trade or cut is the same result. Both accelerate prorated bonuses to the current year.

Maybe offer him a restructure to lower his number and let him play with Mahomes for a while.

I think someone suggested an extension which guarantees him a couple more years as a Chief but brings the per year average down in the next couple of years. If he would take that I'd be okay with it.

he's definitely not a $100 million man. He's not JJ Watt or Aaron Donald. He'll make some plays still, but that's not worth what he's getting paid. We drafted his position (basically) in the 2nd round in the last 2 drafts and unfortunately I'm not that confident in either one to replace him.