Mock 11/23/19
 

More pretend fun...

Moves
Chiefs trade WR Sammy Watkins to Arizona for a 2020 4th round pick and conditional 4th round pick in 2021. If Emmanuel Sanders and a 5th can get a 3rd and 4th round return, I think a younger Watkins has decent value. The Cards will need a receiver and Watkins' cap space is needed in KC.

Chiefs franchise, then trade DT Chris Jones to Miami for their 2nd round pick in 2020, their 3rd round pick in 2021 and CB Cordrea Tankersley. I don't think KC will get as much for Jones as they probably deserve so it'll be a bit of give and take. The Chiefs gave me some confidence in trading Jones when he was out. I think they can pry away Tankersley in a trade with Miami given he was benched before tearing his ACL last year and now is finally coming back. He showed promise as a rookie and Veach likes reclamation projects.

Chiefs cut OT Cam Erving, SS Daniel Sorensen, P Dustin Colquitt

Chiefs sign the following free agents:
DT A'Shawn Robinson (DET) to a 5-year, $57.5 million deal (mirrors Star Lotuleilei's but time adjusted) with $21.0 million guaranteed and a $15 million signing bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $7.75 million. Robinson doesn't have the pass rush prowess of Jones, but he's a better run defender and can still get some pressure. The plus is Robinson should be much cheaper than Jones and at the same time shore up the leaky run defense.

OL Graham Glasgow (DET) to a 4-year, $28.0 million deal (similar to Billy Turner and Zach Fulton) with $9.0 million signing bonus and approximate year 1 salary of $6.0 million. Glasgow isn't an All-Pro caliber player but he's rock-solid everywhere he lines up (all 3 interior spots).

DB Jimmy Ward (SF) to a 1-year, $2.0 million deal with $1.0 million guaranteed. Ward is a bit of a Swiss Army knife but his problem is getting knicked up. He's a solid nickel when healthy and that usually means limiting his snaps. He should come at a discount.

SS Darian Thompson (DAL) to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with $500k guarannteed. Thompson is a solid reserve safety that does a good job coming down in run support.

Chiefs re-sign/extend the following players:
QB Patrick Mahomes - Exercise 5th-year option, then sign him to a 4-year extension for $152 million with $67 million guaranteed and a $27.5 million signing bonus and $33.0 million 2021 option bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.76 million (+3.5 million). (Underlined for emphasis for Direkshun. :p)

CB Bashaud Breeland - Re-sign to 3-year $30.0 million deal (similar to Logan Ryan and Prince Amukamara) with $11.5 million guaranteed and a $4.5 million signing bonus and a $3.0 million roster bonus that guarantees the 5th day of the 2021 league year. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.50 million.

DE Emmanuel Ogbah - Re-sign to a 3-year $18.0 million deal (mirrors Alex Okafor's deal) with a $6.0 million bonus.

WR Demarcus Robinson - Re-sign to a 2-year $5.0 million deal (similar to Chris Conley deal) with a $1.0 million bonus and estimated 1st year of $2.3 million

Chiefs ERFA tender TE Deon Yelder, LG Andrew Wylie, WR Marcus Kemp
Chiefs sign to minimum deals QB Matt Moore, S Jordan Lucas, DT Mike Pennel

Deals, after the rollover, leave Chiefs at approximately $6.5 million in cap space.

Draft

1. CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (6'1" 200)
The Chiefs have lacked a blue-chip corner since they shipped off Marcus Peters (not such a bad decision in retrospect) and should at least find a guy that strikes some fear into a opponents. Hall is a big, fluid corner with outstanding awareness and ball skills as well as solid tackling ability, but lacks the elite top-end speed to be a top-10 pick.

2 (f/MIA). RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State (5'10" 215)
The Chiefs should very well take note from the Packers on how to help your superstar QB and that's by showing a re-committment to running the football. Dobbins is a do-it-all back with the power to plow through the interior, the speed to take it outside, breakaway ability, amazing balance, and is a good receiver and pass blocker to boot. Dobbins is as good of an all-around back as you'll find in this draft.

2 (f/SF). DE Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (6'4" 260)
The Chiefs pass rush has been a bit lackluster with Frank Clark underperforming and the injury to Emmanuel Ogbah. Frank Okafor has been a disappointment and Kpass is a spot contributor, so the Chiefs just need more juice. Willekes is a bit undersized (with room to fill out), but he makes up for it with great quickness, play recognition, and hand usage. He reminds me alot of Yannick Ngakoue, who has been productive in Jacksonville's scheme and has developed alot more upper body strength since coming into the league.

3. LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (6'3" 240)
The Chiefs lack depth and starting ability at linebacker so they need to do something to address it moving forward. Baun reminds me a bunch of Joe Schobert in that he doesn't quite have the size nor power to play the edge in the NFL but he has outstanding lateral agility, a good backpedal, plays good fundamental football and is extremely adept in zone coverage. Once again I find myself touting a tweener Wisconsin linebacker to convert.

4. (f/ARZ). TE Harrison Bryant, Florida Atlantic (6'6" 240)
The Chiefs' stable of tight ends behind Kelce is problematic with Blake Bell and Deon Yelder only each having 3 catches to this point in the season (Yikes!). While I really like Brycen Hopkins, there is some chatter out there about him being a potential 1st rounder or at least a high 2nd rounder. I don't know that the Chiefs can afford to invest that heavily in a guy to sit behind Kelce. I like Bryant quite a bit but he's thin. He runs well, he finds soft spots in zones, and he gives great effort as a blocker most of the time. He just needs to add about 25 pounds to his frame.

4. WR Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (6'1" 200)
The Chiefs probably need to trade Watkins and bringing back Robinson could be a matter of price (although I have him coming back cheap). Lipscomb has good speed and quickness, runs good routes to gain separation, has solid size and has reliable hands but needs to eliminate the stutter step at the start of his route. That said, Lipscomb has been productive with a terrible QB. The Chiefs continue rebuilding at receiver, piggy-backing off of drafting Hardman last year.

5. OL Matt Peart, UConn (6'5" 300)
The Chiefs could use a swing tackle and Peart looks the part with his athleticism. He also has the ability to swing inside to guard where he has experience, but may need some strength development.

QB: Mahomes, Moore, Shurmur
RB: Dobbins, Williams, Williams, Thompson
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Lipscomb, Thompson
TE: Kelce, Bryant, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Rankins, Glasgow, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Reiter, Wylie, Allegretti, Peart
DE: Clark, Okafor, Ogbah, Kpassagnon, Willekes
DT: Robinson, Nnadi, Saunders, Pennel, Speaks
LB: Wilson, Hitchens, Baun, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Breeland, Hall, Ward, Tankersley, Ward, Fenton
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Thompson, Watts, Lucas
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester

I like it.

I don’t know much about any of those players. But in principle I like Jones for players approach.

No thanks

If you're not getting a first for Jones then don't even think about trading him.

If that's all you're doing to address linebacker then nope

Chiefs aren't keeping him in my opinion. Veach didn't draft DTs in back-to-back drafts on day 2 to keep Chris Jones. I also doubt they can get a 1st. If they do get a 1st, I think it's a 1st and that's it.

Leonard Williams fetched a 3rd and conditional 5th.
Danny Shelton and a 5th fetched a 3rd

The last time a DT got traded for a 1st was Richard Seymour in 2011 and the Pats got just a 1st, #17 overall.

I think you look at that as an absolute maximum value. I think he gets you more than Williams just got the Jets but he's probably not getting you a 1st.

Superb commentary! Thanks for the generous amount of insight and input.

I've tried to think about this too because I hate our linebackers. My question is, what are you going to do sans bringing in a vet that's no better than what's here?

It's likely Cleveland franchises Schobert and Carolina franchises Thompson because neither team really has any other free agents worth the tag and those are pretty much the only ones out there that are significant improvements. I'm sure the Packers go out of their way to hang onto Blake Martinez after it took them the better part of a decade to find a good MLB.

Maybe you can snag a guy like Jon Bostic on a reasonable deal, and that's fine. Outside of these 4, I see no free agent improvements.

I look at the draft and I see Simmons and Murray as potential 1st round guys. and then a lump of guys that are in that 2nd-4th range that are all pretty fair game and I happened to pick one guy I like. I like Weaver, Bachie, Brooks, Reece, and Fisher more than most. I think Simmons is gone early. Am I willing to forgoe a CB or some other positions for a guy like Murray? I'm not sure yet, but I don't think so.

I don’t get spending big for a DT who can stop the run but not rush while having the same entity in Nandi and Saunders filling that role for multiple more years of a rookie contract?

I’m not in favor of it, but I think this franchise is gonna pay Chris Jones.

Too many things I disliked to break it all down at that moment, but no problem!

That would be a terrible return for a pass-rusher like Chris Jones in a pretty weak class for 3/5 tech's. Once Brown is off the board, it gets thin in a hurry. That should tell you pretty quick that trade sucks.

Once you factor in that just letting Jones walk out the door would get you a 3 in 2021 anyhow, that trade really sucks.

Spending the #33 pick on a RB with how good the mid range talent pool is in this class is bad.

Don't like the idea of Hall in the first round, and I especially don't understand retaining Breeland than following it up with drafting a CB in the first round. Is that you Matt Millen?

Robinson isn't leaving the Lions and if they pick up a new DT, I'd like someone with more of a pass-rushing presence.

DRob is going to fetch more than that in an open market.

Not really sure why they're targeting a DE either if Ogbah is being retained.

With how that offseason is shaping up, if they're targeting a LB it direly needs to be a Mike.

Not really understanding the OL pick up. I think they're going to be ok at Guard, if Rankin can pick up where he left off before the injury. Ldt isn't leaving yet. I'd like an upgrade at Center, but that's what I'd use a mid round pick on in the draft.


Is that enough for you? Kudos to all the work you put in on doing the OP, I just don't agree with the moves.

This

I’d just bring Pennel back for cheaper. Paying big fatties is a dangerous proposition, they could get lazy quick.

Remarks in red, and thanks!

Paying anyone outside of a QB a big contract is a dangerous proposition. They seldom play to it, and the ones that do usually were drafted by the team paying them that 2nd contract. That said, I'd rather be on the hook for 50 million than 100. Frank Clark is seriously a scary deal right now and I don't want two of those by adding Jones to it.

We're really in need of at least two offensive line starters, and I would argue three. Both guards and center are subpar. That's why we can't run the ball, and they're shite at protecting Patrick. Drafting a RB when we haven't fully addressed that is literally a cart before the horse proposition. I get you signed one FA but honestly, No RB would be putting up numbers behind those three lame-asses.

I don't mind your FA pick-ups; they're alright and probably in the ballpark financially, but I'd argue that we are in more need at offensive line and LB than any other spots.
I too am unsure about Jones; it'll depend on how he goes the rest of the season. He's clearly underperformed so far, but the whole defense has while adjusting to the new scheme. If he and Clark get hot together down the stretch, the play-offs could be fun. If that happens then I'd pay him and roll on.

LMAO you're not going to flip your entire interior OL at once without some significant problems

Come the **** on people

If Door #1 is Chris Jones and Door #2 is Robinson, Breeland and a couple of 2nd day picks, gimme door #1 without hesitation.

I like what Breeland's done quite a bit....at $1.5 million. But the guy sucks in coverage. He's a good soldier back there and a solid physical presence. I like Breeland the guy. But there's no way in hell I'm giving him that kind of money when he just can't stay in a guy's pocket. He looks to me to have incredibly stiff hips and very little short area quickness. Quick WRs give him fits and frankly, bigger ones can as well because he has to gather a bit to go up and make a play on the ball.

Nah - just too much money for a guy who's been pretty fungible this year. He's not playing much better than Claiborne so I think I'd just shotgun numbers at the position again before i gave him that kind of deal.

I'd sign Jones, stick him at SDE, re-sign Pennel and let Saunders/Nnadi man the middle before I'd deal Jones for that kind of dick return (though you're right, that's what Veach will get) and spend similar money on Breeland/Robinson.

Normally, no. But the ones they have in there now aren't very good so I dunno that trying to upgrade it will matter much.

Derrick Henry is a free agent this year.

Any interest?

None.

Not being a good pass-catcher is a bit of a problem. But the biggest problem is that he's a tall, heavy back that runs upright. So A) he takes a HELL of a beating out there and B) once he gets paid he could turn into a fat tub o' goo.

I was a fan of Mark Ingram as a target last year because he'd become a very powerful but still explosive back. He has good hands and runs behind his pads so he doesn't take the kind of pounding that Henry does. He's had some weight struggles but seemed to really get a handle on them his last few years in NO (and completely reinvented his body) which suggested a true lifestyle change that would allow him to age well.

Henry's still a fat guy waiting to happen, IMO. And when combined with the iffy scheme fit and abuse he'll take, I'm just not looking that way. Besides, he's so important to that Titans 'exotic run scheme' or whatever the hell they're calling it that they'll probably overpay him. He's worth more to them on their roster than he is to anyone else on theirs.

I dunno that he'd be one to have a weight problem, he's always been jacked and never really struggled with weight before.

He's not a great fit, but I think he'd help the offense as they need some power implemented. He hasn't been a good pass catcher, but has he really been asked to be?

Mark Ingram was a really good signing, would have been a damn nice fit here.

I really think Leveon is in Kc next year, like it or not.

Dylan Moses make it to us in your world?

I very much doubt that he does because teams seem to dock guys maybe 5-10 spots for injuries like that if they're considered premier talents. So if he was maybe a top 10 pick before the injury, you figure late teens after. And if he tests well, he'll lose hardly any ground at all.

And with Bush and White both struggling this year (Bush came out on fire but has fallen off over the last several weeks) it seems like it's just !@#$ing hard to play MLB in this league right now.

Maybe we didn't understand just how friggen hard it is to find someone like Derrick Johnson. I mean everyone else we talk about when we say "X would fix so many problems for us on this defense at MLB" is a HoF guy. Schobert's the only dude I've seen who fits who isn't someone like Keuchly or Wagner who are possible first ballot dudes.

It just seems the 2nd tier of 'really good MLBs' is damn near barren right now. They're either elite or they're crap.

You're right - I had his weight issues tangled up with Eddie Lacy's. So scratch that particular complaint. You're probably right, weight may not be an issue.

But he DOES run super-upright and is a tall dude to begin with. He takes a lot of body blows.

RunKc brought it up, but Breeland Speaks over Fred Warner is tough to swallow.

He's definitely an upright runner, but damn he is tough to tackle.

Like I said, I think when the Jets cut Leveon he ends up here in Kc.

Moses dropping to KC would be good, but Schobert would be ideal in that he would hit the ground running as a true QB of the defense.

Here is a hair brained idea: player (and potential picks) tag and trade swap of CJones for Schobert.

Yeah and it happens to every team. There are other fan boards out there taking about taking player A over Kelce. I don’t get the need to whine about it. There is no team out there that hits on every pick.

Yeah, for sure. It's all a crap shoot.

It just sucks double the amount cause Speaks sucks.

It does but no one gets to talk shit if they weren’t banging the table for someone like Warner.

Case in point. DJ and I were yelling for us to draft Kamara.

I've mentioned Warner as the kind of guy we should've stumbled onto at least once over the last decade if we had just TRIED.

The problem is how little effort we've put into the off-ball linebacker spot. The team post-Carl has treated ILB/MLB like Carl treated QBs. And to nobody's surprise, it's not going well.

Yep.

A few 2nds, and a 3rd here or there and maybe you've got someone.

Just look at this shit:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1496



Same thread:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1547



Gotta at least pretend to give a shit about a position in the draft in order to get any kind of productivity from it.

Yeah, they haven't done shit at that spot, it shows.

I also think Ragland is playing pretty well right now, wonder what they do with him.

He's had one season playing the wrong position how do you know he sucks already

I'm open for a bet of some sort here.

I don't KNOW the sun will rise tomorrow...but I'm pretty sure of it. And I'm pretty damn sure that Breeland Speaks sucks. Sure enough that I don't feel the need to qualify it every time I say it.

We ain't in a court of law and I don't stand on ceremony. So rather than repeatedly say "I'm pretty sure Breeland Speaks sucks" I'm just gonna say "Speaks sucks" as a shorthand.

Because Speaks sucks.

CB and ILB

I think those will be the top 2 picks in the draft. Really good ones are rarely available and when they are, you have to pay out the ass for them. Draft is the best place to get those positions.

If Moses declares after a season-ending knee injury. I haven't really put him on the radar until I see he does that. If he does, he certainly is in the realm of possibility. Obviously the situation isn't quite the same as Jaylon Smith because Moses should be able to run well by the time the draft rolls, but that injury may stick in people's heads when the draft comes.

Only reason I've pumped the brakes on Shobert was looking at the Browns free agent list. I think he gets tagged. He's been playing good enough football the past few years I think he's just as well on pace as Keuchly and Wagner at this point in his career. I don't think the Browns let that walk.

As for RB, I seriously considered mocking a FA pickup of Jordan Howard. He's the big back that can do everything that Veach seems to like and he won't come with the price tag that guys like Bell and Henry will.

I agree with this. I followed a bit of the Chiefs' recent philosophy and I threw a later pick at the position pretty much every year in the alternate reality mocks and finally may have hit on a 5th rounder in Cole Holcomb.

2016 (4-99) - Josh Perry - Whiff
2017 (5-148) - Blair Brown - Whiff
2018 - None
2019 - (5-178) - Cole Holcomb - Starting w/ 76 tackles

That's not going to cut it when you only have one somewhat decent LB on the entire team.

Don't know that I agree with you all on this. If it's a trade to a team like Miami where you're getting pick 35/36 plus a day 2 pick and a player, then that's good value.

I very nearly went with LB Kenneth Murray in 1 and then CB Bryce Hall at that 35/36 spot. In retrospect, and judging by reactions, that's probably what I should have mocked to begin with.

I'd much rather Robinson, Breeland, Murray and Hall than I would just Murray and Jones. That all said, I'm working on something else for you guys to chew on at the moment that retains Jones and makes a free agent splash.

If they can't get a good enough return in a trade than I'd let him just play on the tag

IMO, got to fix OL and RB 1st and foremost . There are needs at LB and CB but securing the Mahomes investment takes priority

let's just start with Tyler Biadasz.

Then a LB in the second.

Maybe a RB in the 3rd. We seem to have good luck with 3rd round runners.

and then another fatty.

and then another fatty.

1. Biadasz
2. Phillips (LSU linebacker)
3. Chuba Hubbard (RB, OK State)

I want a Biad-ass and a Chubba Hubba.

Which fatty lines up at corner

It's all dependent who's available and attainable in FA, if KC can get badass interior OL or RB then it will absolutely change draft needs.

As of now positional value at OL and RB has shot up because of Mahomes.

Interior OL and RB would be considered bargain bin shopping if Patrick didn't get injured and missed games.

KC needs to lighten the workload if KC wants to make legitimate runs for the SB since PMII isn't as durable as Favre when Brett played.

Ward, Fenton, and bring Breeland and/or Claiborne back.

OR similar 2nd tier depth.

Secondary has played pretty well.

I think LB and OL are biggest needs at the moment.

that said, I believe in drafting corners every year, so however it falls.

I really don't think Reid makes wholesale changes on the offensive line. It's not his MO. Will they likely draft an interior lineman relatively early? I think it's probable. Even then, there's no guarantee he starts. Will he draft 3 with limited picks (sans a significant trade)? I find that highly doubtful. I'd assume Rankin and LDT will be the guards next year and that Center is the most likely change. Reid also doesn't tend to burn first-rounders on offensive lineman so I'd probably put the thoughts of a guy like Biadasz to bed.

I have a different thought process I'm going to throw out there for you guys in short order, even if it's a bit overzealous in terms of free agent availability. Just throwing shit out there for discussion at this point though.

Breeland sucks butt and Claiborne hasn't been great either. **** that shit.

Fuller? He should be cheaper considering his injury history.

He sucks ass too.

So your plan is drafting one? That only gives us 3.

Absolutely. I'd probably double up at the position actually and trash can dig around for another to put it up to 6.

I don't think any of them have been all that bad compared to our coverage linebackers.

Because our linebackers are literally aids doesn't mean the Chiefs have a good CB situation. It just means there's an even worse position.

And when you have finite resources to fill holes, it absolutely means that the AIDS needs to be addressed before the sprained thumb.

Yeah, I'd like to see the CB position improved, but our secondary has played damn well this year with little more than Ward, Breeland and a rotating cast of complementary DBs. They're making it work and pretty well.

Meanwhile, the LBs are getting wrecked. And the IOL is as well.

If you're looking at areas that need immediate improvement and are basing it on the actual performance on the field (and not name cache/flashiness) then I don't see how you can say CB is anywhere near the top of the list of needs.

By strictly a review of how the respective units have performed so far this season, I'd say CB ranks near the lowest in terms of concern.

Well we only have two CBs under contract next season. So I wouldn’t rank it super low.

Sure - but I don't figure we'll let all 3 of the guys we have on hand walk.

So, Mizzou fans, is Albert O gonna be there in the 2nd for the Chiefs?

Albert O might last until the 4th.

He hurt his draft stock badly this year. Terrible drops and looked completely disinterested for huge chunks of the season.

He went from looking like a possible 1st round pick prior to the season to a guy who may have just been a creation of his quarterback. I don't think he'll go undrafted or anything, but if he doesn't test really well, a slide to the 3rd day is a distinct possibility.

He was flat out bad this year.

Interesting.

I'd take him in the 4th to sit behind Kelce for a year or two. I don't think he'll ever be a blocking TE, but Kelce isn't exactly Jason Dunn

He's definitely worth the risk in the 4th round. If he pulls his act together he could be a great receiving TE.