To preview the 2021 NFL playoffs, today we rank all 14 offenses based on trustworthiness. In the next installment, we’ll do the defenses.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s no secret why the Chiefs get the top spot here. They have the league’s best quarterback/play-caller combination. Kansas City was 14-1 with Patrick Mahomes as the starter, and the Chiefs’ overall offensive performance was nearly identical to 2019. Their offensive DVOA was 23.9 percent (second league-wide), compared to 23.5 percent (third) last season. And here are Mahomes’ numbers this season compared to last year.
Travis Kelce set the record for receiving yards (1,416) by a tight end. Tyreek Hill had 17 touchdowns from scrimmage and is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. The offensive line finished sixth in ESPN’s pass block win rate, despite playing without starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz since Week 6. The scariest part about the Chiefs, as we saw during last year’s playoff run, is that they are nearly impossible to kill. There’s no one on this list you would rather have with the ball when the game’s on the line than Mahomes. He had the highest Expected Points Added (EPA) among playoff quarterbacks when tied or trailing during the regular season.
2. Green Bay Packers
As part of this exercise, I looked up the 100 best single-game offensive performances during the regular season (based on EPA) to see how many each playoff team produced. The Packers had 11! No other team had more than seven. Green Bay finished first in offensive DVOA, and at the age of 37, Aaron Rodgers delivered perhaps the best season of his career. Davante Adams was un-guardable, and Aaron Jones piled up 1,459 yards from scrimmage. The Packers finished first in pass block win rate. Their offensive line is still strong, but they’ll head to the postseason without Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari. Two things stand out with the Packers. One, they were the league’s best play-action team (EPA per snap) during the regular season. And two, Matt LaFleur was the league’s best game scripter. Green Bay averaged a league-best 4.56 points on its opening possessions.
3. Buffalo Bills
They have looked flat-out unstoppable, averaging a league-best 34.5 points per game in the second half of the season. Josh Allen and the Bills can win in so many ways. Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley consistently win their one-on-one matchups. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll schemes up explosive plays. And when things break down, Allen can make defenses feel helpless by creating plays outside of structure. Buffalo’s offensive line is underrated and ranked fourth in pass block win rate. One area that has set the Bills apart: their ability to decimate man coverage. According to Sports Info Solutions, no quarterback performed better against man than Allen during the regular season.
4. Tennessee Titans
There’s a reason why offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is getting looks as a head coach. The Titans have used a throwback formula to produce one of the league’s top offenses. They were the most run-heavy team during the regular season, and no quarterback used play-action more (32.3 percent) than Ryan Tannehill.
The Titans’ path to success is not complicated: let Tannehill take shots on play-action, position A.J. Brown for yards after the catch, and count on Derrick Henry to steal opponents’ souls in the fourth quarter. Tennessee ranked second in EPA per play in the regular season. Despite the emphasis on the run game, the Titans can play from behind. They showed often this year that they can score in a hurry and are a resilient group.
5. Seattle Seahawks
It feels like a tale of two seasons for their offense. The Seahawks ranked fourth in EPA per snap from Weeks 1 to 9, but they were 16th from Weeks 10 to 17. One issue: Seattle’s downfield passing game has disappeared. In Weeks 1 to 9, Wilson had 15 deep (defined as 20 yards or more from the line of scrimmage) completions. He ranked ninth in EPA on deep passing attempts. From Weeks 10 to 17, he had just seven such completions and ranked 29th in EPA on deep passing attempts. Defenses forced the Seahawks to be more methodical and employed strategies to slow down DK Metcalf. That led to Seattle averaging just 22.6 points per game in the second half of the season, compared to 34 points per game in the first half. It’d be no surprise to see Wilson, Metcalf and Tyler Lockett catch fire and make a run in the NFC. But this group has questions going into the postseason.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They are a high-variance offense. When it looks good, Tampa seems unstoppable. When it looks bad, it seems like a ticking time bomb. But the truth is the Buccaneers had many more good stretches than bad stretches. Tom Brady ranked 10th in QBR during the regular season, and the Buccaneers ranked third in offensive DVOA. The numbers suggest that Brady could benefit from more play-action. He ranked just 26th in play-action frequency (17.9 percent), but only Rodgers was better (EPA per play) on play-action throws. As of this writing, it’s unclear whether Mike Evans will be healthy enough to play in the wild-card round.
7. New Orleans Saints
If we isolate just the 11 games that Drew Brees started and finished, the Saints had the league’s fifth-best offense (EPA per play). Despite not having Michael Thomas for nine games and not having Brees for four-plus games, Sean Payton somehow schemed up an offense that finished seventh in DVOA. As of this writing, it’s unclear whether Thomas and Alvin Kamara will be on the field for this game, although signs points to them returning. We know how the Saints want to play. Their offensive success relies on Brees’ mastery of the scheme and a methodical approach. Brees’ average pass traveled just 6.3 yards downfield, the third-lowest of any starter. The Saints’ run game was the most efficient in the league. Brees finished the year with just eight completions on passes that traveled 20 yards or more downfield; that ranked 34th. The Saints have a very specific way they have to play, and they’re very good at it. But given the lack of a downfield attack, their margin for error is low, and that could present challenges against certain opponents.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Overall, the Ravens’ offense did not perform as well as it did last season. But there was one area where they actually became more efficient: the run game. The counting totals weren’t as gaudy, but the Ravens’ performance (EPA per snap) when running the ball was not only the best of any team this year, but the best of any team over the last five years. In the second half of the season, Baltimore ranked fourth in overall efficiency. Their diverse and explosive run game will give the Ravens a chance. But they still need to prove they can consistently move the ball through the air. Baltimore is playing with a completely reshuffled offensive line, and while pass protection has held up well so far, it could become an issue if they’re playing from behind. Overall though, this group has a high ceiling and could get hot.
9. Indianapolis Colts
This is a group that took time to find an identity. Early on, it seemed like Frank Reich was willing to let Philip Rivers cook. Then he realized that the Colts’ best chance of winning might be a more conservative approach that leaned on their defense and the run game. In Weeks 1 to 9, the Colts ranked 31st in rushing efficiency. In Weeks 10 to 17, with Jonathan Taylor coming on strong, they ranked fifth. Two areas where Reich really gave the Colts an edge: opening game scripts and the screen game. The Colts averaged 4.13 points on their opening possessions, which ranked second. And 335 of Rivers’ passing yards came on screens to running backs and tight ends — the most of any quarterback. T.Y. Hilton played well down the stretch, but this group will rely more on efficiency than explosiveness. And the Colts will be playing without starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
They may have the hardest offense to peg. On one hand, they ranked 22nd in offensive DVOA and 28th in pass block win rate. For the most part, the Steelers relied on a quick-hitting passing game, and the run game was one of the league’s worst (30th in efficiency). On the other hand, it’s not like the Steelers are devoid of talent. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson will present tough matchups to most opponents. And the Steelers made some plays downfield in their comeback win over the Colts in Week 16. They don’t need to light the league on fire. They just need Ben Roethlisberger to get hot for four games. Is that possible? Maybe. Pittsburgh produced just one top-100 offensive performance in the regular season — tied for fewest among all playoff teams.
11. Cleveland Browns
Their preparation has been upended with head coach and play-caller Kevin Stefanski having to miss this game (unless it gets rescheduled). If it were business as usual, I would have had Cleveland ninth on this list. The key to the Browns’ success has been an offensive line that ranked second in pass block win rate. The Browns’ pass protection, along with Stefanski’s scheme and play-calling, have helped set Baker Mayfield up for success. Cleveland’s offense has the highest variance of any in the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders. The Browns produced five top-100 offensive performances this season, which was more than the Seahawks or Buccaneers. Cleveland’s offense relies on a heavy dose of Nick Chubb, play-action passing and one of the league’s best screen games. No quarterback had a higher EPA on screens to running backs and tight ends this season than Mayfield. And he ranked fourth in efficiency on play-action passes.
12. Chicago Bears
What to make of the way the Bears finished the season with Mitchell Trubisky? Let’s start with the good news. Their performance in the final six games, extended over the course of an entire season, would translate to the league’s sixth-best offense. Pretty good! Now the bad news. All six defenses they faced during that stretch ranked in the bottom half of the league. That includes the league’s three worst defenses — Houston, Jacksonville and Detroit. So yes, a grain of salt is necessary. The biggest difference with the Bears was in the run game. Their rushing performance in the last six games would have translated to second-best league-wide if extended over the entire season. And Trubisky had success with play-action, ranking fifth in efficiency. This doesn’t have to be that hard. The Bears need to lean on play-action, run the ball, feed Allen Robinson and have Trubisky use his legs. This group doesn’t have a high ceiling, but that formula will offer their best chance of success.
13. Los Angeles Rams
As of this writing, we don’t know who the Rams’ starting quarterback will be in the playoffs. John Wolford started in Week 17. We know he can use his legs, and we know he’s not playing scared. Wolford threw aggressively — both downfield and into tight windows. But overall, that was the Rams’ fourth-worst offensive performance of the season. Jared Goff did not play well this season, ranking 23rd in QBR. Expecting him to return from a thumb injury and save the day would be a stretch. This is a completely different team than the one that went to the Super Bowl a couple years ago. The Rams’ offensive approach will be conservative, with an emphasis on running the ball and setting up easy completions — that’s regardless of who is playing quarterback.
14. Washington Football Team
Under normal circumstances, producing the 32nd-ranked offense would mean no chance at a playoff berth. But in 2020, it got the Washington Football Team a division title and a home playoff game. Alex Smith has been a great story, but in terms of actual performance, he ranked 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per play, just one spot ahead of Dwayne Haskins. Smith is playing with a calf injury and did not move well in Washington’s Week 17 win over the Eagles. To make matters worse, Terry McLaurin will be playing at significantly less than 100 percent because of a high-ankle sprain. It’s tough to expect much from this group. The goal, for the most part, will be to just not lose the game.
* Data used from Sportradar, TruMedia and Sports Info Solutions.
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