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-   -   Football Falcons taking calls on Julio Jones (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=338036)

CoMoChief 04-26-2021 10:46 AM

Chiefs would have a Madden Ultimate Team in real life on offense if Jones was traded to KC.

ATL should do Jones a solid and trade him to us....his career has been a total waste on that franchise...a shame.

htismaqe 04-26-2021 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 15645258)
The recency bias (1 injured year) + Chiefs fans' PTSD of injured players (Schwartz, Watkins, Berry, etc..) is really clouding some judgement in here, I think.

Is there a valid reason for concern with him coming off a hamstring injury at age 32? Sure, so evaluate and don't get over your skis on trade compensation. Brett won't do that, so I'm not worried.

Is he Sammy Watkins, or even in the same realm? No way, man.

It's not recency bias.

Jones actually missed more games in 2013 than he did last year. He's actually had hamstring, foot, and ankle issues multiple times over his career.

I don't know how much stock you put into this type of analysis but I've found Sports Injury Predictor to be reasonably reliable at predicting injury outcomes for players. They nailed the results of the Dee Ford trade to SF.

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/pl...lio-jones/4692

They have Julio Jones with a 94% of missing a game due to injury and the over/under at 2.4 games. He's considered a "high risk" player.

Dante84 04-26-2021 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 15645265)
The difference NOW is that Jones plays through injuries and Watkins doesn't.

That doesn't change the fact that Jones is oft-injured because he absolutely is. And while the willingness to play through them may always be there, there will come a time when Jone's 30+ body simply won't be able to do that anymore. Those nagging injuries will eventually become issues that result in lost playing time, as we saw last year. These are the types of guys we should be avoiding, not inviting.

I agree, and will defer to Veach and the Chiefs' medical staff on that determination.

We are in the unique position of being set up to win now AND in the future, which is pretty rare. Each year we'll have to play a delicate game of calculated risks to ensure that we did enough to get to the mountain-top without mortgaging our future ability to sustain.

This is one of those moves that, if they're comfortable, could be slam dunk for '21 & '22 SB runs.

Chris Meck 04-26-2021 10:50 AM

I'd really rather restock the position in the draft, and let those players grow into roles.

pugsnotdrugs19 04-26-2021 10:50 AM

I think a 2022 3rd rounder is the most I can give for him given the cap, age, injuries.

And that’s IF you don’t draft a WR in R2.

Dante84 04-26-2021 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 15645271)
It's not recency bias.

Jones actually missed more games in 2013 than he did last year. He's actually had hamstring, foot, and ankle issues multiple times over his career.

I don't know how much stock you put into this type of analysis but I've found Sports Injury Predictor to be reasonably reliable at predicting injury outcomes for players. They nailed the results of the Dee Ford trade to SF.

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/pl...lio-jones/4692

They have Julio Jones with a 94% of missing a game due to injury and the over/under at 2.4 games. He's considered a "high risk" player.

Very cool, I'll check that site out. And you make good points - there's absolutely risk here.

Just a matter of the price of said risk. I think we're in a position to spend a 2nd rounder (I guess next year is the only option, based on his June contract date), and shoulder his contract, for Julio mf'n Jones.

Titty Meat 04-26-2021 10:54 AM

Hes washed

Dante84 04-26-2021 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 15645281)
I think a 2022 3rd rounder is the most I can give for him given the cap, age, injuries.

And that’s IF you don’t draft a WR in R2.

I'd go as high as a 2022 2nd, if they're comfortable with his health.

Chris Meck 04-26-2021 10:59 AM

I look at it this way:

The reason we lost the SB was the offensive line. Both OT's were injured, and with both being over 30 with back problems it made sense to move on.

We haven't had peak Sammy since SB 54. We still won 16 games without him.

We fixed the offensive line, and it looks MUCH more talented and MUCH deeper than last season, so it shouldn't be a weakness any longer. (I'd argue that it's been mediocre since Morse started missing time.)

We've got about 3 more seasons I think of Hill and Kelce at combined peak powers.

The defense got a lot better with Reed. Gay, Sneed are ascending.

I'm less worried about 2021 than 2022 and 2023.

Give me a Dyami Brown or Amon-Ra St. Brown, and start restocking the weaponry. They'll get some packages and work in this season, but really show out in '22 and '23.

Dante84 04-26-2021 11:00 AM

51 passes in 7 games = 7.28 catches/game = IF HEALTHY, 117 catches/16 games
771 yards in 7 games = 110 yards/game = IF HEALTHY, 1,760 yards/16 games
3 TD's in 7 games = .42 TD's/game = IF HEALTHY, 6.72 TD's/16 games.

Would he play 16 games? That's the whole entire question.

But I wouldn't say he's washed.

Put him in this offense though, even as a decoy, the impact he would have on the offense and the pressure it would put on a defense would be insane.

Just a matter of if it's worth whatever the price is.

Hoover 04-26-2021 11:16 AM

We would need to find 5M in space and money for our draft class...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trading Julio Jones after June 1st<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Falcons?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Falcons</a> Dead Cap<br>2021: $7.75M ($15.3M saved)<br>2022: $15.5M ($3.7M saved)<br><br>New Team Acquires<br>2021: $15.3M (GTD)<br>2022: $11.5M ($2M GTD)<br>2023: $11.5M<a href="https://t.co/FpLHvrSCtc">https://t.co/FpLHvrSCtc</a> <a href="https://t.co/ge6cPUCkbh">pic.twitter.com/ge6cPUCkbh</a></p>&mdash; Spotrac (@spotrac) <a href="https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/1386707610724884481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

htismaqe 04-26-2021 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover (Post 15645328)
We would need to find 5M in space and money for our draft class...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trading Julio Jones after June 1st<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Falcons?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Falcons</a> Dead Cap<br>2021: $7.75M ($15.3M saved)<br>2022: $15.5M ($3.7M saved)<br><br>New Team Acquires<br>2021: $15.3M (GTD)<br>2022: $11.5M ($2M GTD)<br>2023: $11.5M<a href="https://t.co/FpLHvrSCtc">https://t.co/FpLHvrSCtc</a> <a href="https://t.co/ge6cPUCkbh">pic.twitter.com/ge6cPUCkbh</a></p>&mdash; Spotrac (@spotrac) <a href="https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/1386707610724884481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

$15M guaranteed right away? No thanks.

Dante84 04-26-2021 11:24 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Most Receiving YPG<br>NFL History, Minimum 50 Games<br> <br> ATL Julio Jones 95.5<br> HOF Calvin Johnson 86.1<br> NO Michael Thomas 85.0<br> NFL Antonio Brown 84.5<br> CLE Odell Beckham Jr. 83.3</p>&mdash; James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/1386732062770712578?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dante84 04-26-2021 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 15645339)
$15M guaranteed right away? No thanks.

In this scenario, wouldn't we prefer it to be a front-loaded deal?

Also, I'm assuming we get HB's deal done before the season, so that could free up some cap.

Again, all hypotheticals.

Kiimo 04-26-2021 11:28 AM

I'm not sure there is anything worse than getting older at WR


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