Weaver is a Section 8. Good riddance

Damn good trade for the Cardinals. Damn good pick up.

Nightengale says they're out on Machado and Harper.

So go 2nd wild card spot.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not long ago Carson Kelly’s defense/power was thought heir to Yadier Molina. But now questions if can translate power to MLB. Andrew Kninzer moved by him in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StlCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StlCards</a> internal depth chart for catcher of the future.</p>&mdash; Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1070442265250811904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Pretty much this. Kelly has been called up 3 times to MLB and hasn't shown jack shit. The guy makes Tucker Barnhart look like Mike Piazza. He actually had a ****ing negative OPS+ last season in the majors.

This organization is reeruned

his info is always off. So we are signing Harper tomorrow.

okay, enlighten us. It seems to me that we gave up our trash with little upside and got at least 1 year of a good MLB player.

It’s what we had discussed earlier. We need to trade our 4 quarters for a dollar.

That dollar is old and about to be given a big contract or walk.

I think he's upset that they didn't trade it for a new crispy dollar.

I think he's referring to this deal taking them out of Harper/Machado which would be monumentally stupid.

Ya this trade is a good deal. But look at it like this...

This is your core:

Ozuna - 1 year
Goldschmidt - 1 year
Molina - retiring in 2 years
Carpenter - going back to 3rd base

You potentially passed up on a stud stepping into his prime for what appears to be a 1 year run, that still doesn't guarantee a playoff spot, in order to avoid spending money.

who gives you a new crisp dollar with no warts for your trash?

They'll give big money to Ozuna or Goldschmidt if they'll take it.

Likely they'll get in another Heyward situation and still suck.

We had a very small chance of getting Harper. But that being said, why does getting goldy ensure that we have no chance at Harper? What does the goldy trade have to do with Harper?

Fact. He never seems to be accurate.

I don't see how you could possibly give big money to Ozuna unless he has another 2017. He was throwing like a girl last year and he returned to being a barely league average hitter.

And giving Goldschmidt an extension would be terribly ironic because of what Goold has already mentioned. The Cardinals were dumping cold water on any deal with Harper because of the risk it would involve at the back end of the deal so you trade for a guy thats already at the back end of the deal.

Again, they'll do it to sell it to the masses.

Ozuna comes off shoulder surgery and has a good year, he'll get paid.

JD Martinez got 5/110 at 30 to DH.

What's Goldschmidt get at 31 to play 1B?

I've spoken to this exact scenario already.

Unless you're willing to wildly expand payroll and go get Harper anyway (DeWitt isn't), then you have to view ALL of this through a lens of surplus value. And even if we don't, there are several teams out there that WILL. So guys like Weaver and Kelly have a fair amount of value on the open market.

Again - this is about twice what we gave up for Ozuna and we get the player for half as long. And when the deal for Ozuna was made, he was every bit the commodity that Goldschmidt is now; a 2nd year of control is massive in trade discussions.

That package for a rental player is flash over substance; it's what lazy GM's do when they're out of ideas. And it's an acknowledgement that DeWitt's shooting for 90 wins, a wild-card game and some good luck. He's taking the floor over the ceiling and in so doing he's giving up assets that can contribute to THIS organization (who's taking the innings when Mikolas and Wacha get paid in 2020? Or do you really want to extend them?) or have value elsewhere.

If they sign Harper and Goldschmidt is a part of making that happen - I'll take it all back. But they won't. This is it. They're going to go get Tony Sipp or some other fungible but overpriced veteran reliever, they're going to push for 90 wins and hope the Brewers backslide.

They'll be the 5th best team in the NL again but they'll be older and almost certainly more expensive, especially in the long-term. There's no long-term vision here; just a willingness to keep going for the easy headline in the hopes that the turnstile algorithm keeps churning out profits.

5/125 is the likely floor due to his durability. For ages 32-36.

Folks, that's our BEST case scenario - that we get him extended and have the privilege of paying a 1b who struck out 170+ times last year (a spike in K rate is never a good sign for an aging player) through his decline years.

Awesome.

Enjoy your offseason headlines and season ticket packages, Moe. This won't change the outcome in September one whit.

you hated Weaver and Kelly, fo i really need to go get the quotes of you trashing them? but now they are worth more than a year of Goldy?

A team that needs a long-term starting catcher and values cost-controlled pitching.

And this is like the Kaminsky deal as well. When we traded Kaminsky for Moss, suddenly everyone was like "Well Kaminsky sucks and he's a likely reliever anyway..." okay - then why the **** did we take him in the 1st round?

I think Weaver progressed nicely until a sophomore slump last year where he was really in his own head. His stuff was still good but he just lost his fastball command. Fix that and you're right back to the kid you took in the 1st round. Hell, you're better than that because his velocity had bounced back to where it was as a Sophomore at FSU when he was seen as a potential top 5 guy.

The Cardinals drafted a guy in the 1st, he did EVERYTHING they could've wanted him to do in the minors, looked very good in his first major league experience and the moment he hit a stumble, they dumped him at the nadir of his value.

Because that's all Moe EVER does. He buys high and sells low. He never has the balls to trade a guy when he's at peak value and always waits until there's no projection left or the guy's scuffling. And he always waits until after a breakout to pursue someone. The guy actually said, after trading for Ozuna, that he knew Ozuna would be a stud 3 years prior to that when he saw him in camp. THE MARLINS TRIED TO DUMP THE GUY! 2 years before his breakout, the Marlins were shopping him all over God's creation because he was pissed over having his service time manipulated. Where was Moe then? If he knew the guy was going to be such a stud before then, why didn't he pounce?

Because there aren't ticket sales in it. Moe's a ****ing bag man; an accountant with a title. He sees ways to get people to buy tickets and that's what he concerns himself with.

He's a lousy baseball man. He has no long-term plan apart from "don't ever suck" and his has absolutely no creativity. This team doesn't need a !@#$ing righthanded 1b. They need a 3b that hits lefthanded. They needed Johan Camargo or some other semi-creative solution that would yeild someone who hasn't already had his best years somewhere else.

Moe's simply not up to that task. He's every bad fantasy baseball owner you've ever had - the guy who was asking if Jeter's been taken by the 4th round in 2016.

He's a schmuck.

On the market? Yes. If you're not hell-bent on a headline trade, they absolutely are.

Weaver established himself in 2017 after recovering his velocity and Kelly rehabbed his prospect value when he got sent back to Memphis. I preferred Flaherty because of his frame and Knizner because of his swing, but you don't ever discount the relative value of players just because you like someone else better.

11 years of Weaver and Kelly needs to get you a lot more than a single 5 win season from a 1b, especially when you already have a damn 1b and all you're doing with this move is shoving that 1b over to 3b so you can force out a guy who was a 3 win 3b in his own right.

This team is maybe 2 games better. They're a 90 win ballclub at this point and what they've done is fire 2 bullets that could've at least been part of a solution that doesn't involve either a 1-year rental or extending an aging 1b.

Again - IF I thought this was a part of a genuine plan; a push to get Harper - I'd be less irritated. But I've spent a wildly outsized part of my adult life observing this organization. They're done. They got their season ticket packages sold with this move - they'll get a lefty reliever and call it a day. Shit they might not even do that now that they reached a deal with Shreve.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">3 evaluators have generally said <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Diamondbacks?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Diamondbacks</a> did not get 1 stud prospect back, but rather potential upside/control. But said considering 1b/31/1 yr to fr agcy the return was fine. 1 of evaluators was from NL Central said this: &quot;But now I have to see Goldschmidt 19 times. Ow.&quot;</p>&mdash; Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1070449291133636608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Time to step back from the ledge, DJ.

I dont believe that the guys they traded had as much value as you believe. I don't know how you can rebuild value in Kelly's case. He was already moved down the totem pole internally and in 3 trips to the majors has shown absolutely no staying power even as a backup.

I want Harper!

Are you worried about the Cardinals? Even a little bit?

With this move, do you see a team that's a viable threat to challenge the Cubs for the Central over the next 3 years?

This isn't about the players; it's about laying their cards down and making their priorities transparent. The Cardinals are content with good enough and unless this maneuver portends another significant move, it provides clear confirmation of same.

I don't worry about the Cardinals because for the last 2 years I've looked at the roster and seen absolutely nothing to replace the current core thats walking off into the sunset in the near future.

God help you if Martinez is a bullpen arm going forward and Reyes throws out his arm again.

But at the same time I don't feel the Cardinals gave up a damn thing for a guy who is a shoe-in for top 15 wRC+. Even if it is only for one year.

That's my point.

These are assets that could address an aging core. Instead we've doubled down on it and taken ourselves out of the running for a couple young guys in the process. In the near term we STILL aren't a threat for the division.

This trade should at the very least move things along with Jose Martinez who likely has a ton more value than anything the Cardinals gave up for Goldschmidt. There is no place to put Martinez even as a backup now unless they are going to continue the outfield experiment which would be hilarious.

Surprise surprise! The Cardinals director of ticket sales is on the big show here in Columbia. Gotta make the rounds. Ticket packages available now!

Such a predictable, transparent appeal to the casual fan.

Headline deal and little more.

I’m really hoping this doesn’t take us out of the running for Harper. Mo needs to double down and go for it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

These guys were going to be worth even less in another few years, and even if it's 1 year, you get a first round pick to offset his departure.

It shouldn’t, but of course it will. Like I mentioned earlier I can live with cringing on every Carp throw across the diamond next summer if it means we added Goldy AND Harper.

Would you rather they add nothing? And let's not act like Harper is without risk. All these moves have downside. I'm tired of this team overrating its prospects.

It'll be a comp B pick; effectively a 3rd, IIRC.

Same as we got for Lynn.

Carp defensively at 3B and Fowler in RF?:eek:

He'll turn down the QO and get more than $50 guaranteed. Your own projection as comparable to JD Martinez, minus the value of the QO, far, far exceeds $50 million.

I didn't think that mattered at our revenue level.

Maybe don't pursue a 1b when you already have one, then?

Stupid trade

Teams that are receiving revenue sharing funds and lose a player who turned down a QO get a pick between round 1 and comp A picks if the player signs a contract over $50 million.

The Cardinals aren't in the revenue sharing group.

Teams that lose a player who turned down a QO and the team wasnt over the luxury tax will receive a pick after comp B picks no matter how much the player signed for. 75-80 range pick.

maybe he is right just this once.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> offseason priorities now shift to improving their bullpen and adding a left-handed bench player. They still have substantial financial flexibility, but I&#39;m told Bryce Harper is not a target.</p>&mdash; Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/LangoschMLB/status/1070465431180337155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Seems Nightengale knows more than Olney.

:)

stopped clock is right twice a day situation.

What’s better?

Opening Day starting line up 2018
Fowler RF
Pham CF
Carpenter 3B
Ozuna LF
Martinez 1B
Molina C
Dejong SS
Wong 2B
Pitcher

2019

Carp
Bader
Goldy
Ozuna
Dejong
Molina
Fowler/O’Neill
Wong
Pitcher

The 2nd lineup if only because Carpenter wont be a useless hitter not batting leadoff.

I wouldn't want DeJong batting 5th though.

Why would Fowler be in RF if you added Harper too?

Gyorko can sub late in the game at 3rd defensively.

You're right. That's the most recent change to the CBA. Cardinals are one of the twelve teams, so total value doesn't matter in that case.

Then this was a strange target. I just don’t understand the fear over Harper. If anything this trade makes more sense if you add Harper and vice versa.

Quit playing your pocket deuces like a full boat.

It could just as easily being them deciding that they want to see if they can convince Goldschmidt to stay after he's seen the team for a while (the Matt Holliday move, basically), while holding out for Arenado. Given that Carpenter's option next year is a team option, you could decline his while signing Arenado, and after Waino's incentive-laden contract comes off the books, you'd be damn near revenue neutral.

Might have some competition for that there Arenado fella.

Rumblings I've read from Cubs writers is that the team might be inactive in the Harper sweepstakes not only because of financial reasons but also because internally they like moving Bryant to the OF and Arenado at 3rd more than Harper.

Well of course someone that good is not going to have a single bidder in FA.

Just sayin.

Arenado was already caught hugging Cubs players in the middle of a game.

Magic Johnson and Isaiah Thomas used to kiss each other before games. Who gives a shit?

2019 America.

Maybe...Oh well...maybe Fowler will take an early retirement. I guess DeWitt told Mo “you sold me on Fowler now eat your vegetables we aren’t throwing them out.”

Saxon over on the Athletic
The Cardinals just got back in the World Series mix with acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt https://theathletic.com/696899/2018/...l-goldschmidt/

Ya don't ****ing say?

Oh wait, that's exactly what I said. And i'm not even on the beat. I've just paid attention to this team for a decade.

It's amazing how many people convince themselves that it'll be different this time.

"Your 2019 St. Louis Cardinals: Older, more expensive and still the third best team in the division. But powder blues! Get your tickets now!"

Then Saxon is wrong.

Its substantially more likely that they'll miss the playoffs than win the pennant.

This isn't even a team that's attempting to win the division and DeWitt admitted this morning when he said their goal is to average 90 wins over any 5 season stretch and the last three years have done nothing to heighten urgency.

When someone tries to tell you who they are - listen.

Goldschmidt sells [X] tickets. Harper sells [X]*1.2 tickets but costs twice as much. To the snake oil salesman of an owner, the answer is obvious.

Saxons lineup over at the Athletic

Matt Carpenter 3B
Jose Martinez/Dexter Fowler RF
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Marcell Ozuna LF
Paul DeJong SS
Harrison Bader CF
Yadier Molina C
Kolten Wong 2B
Pitcher

Competition?

**** that - dollar bill is out.

Once other teams actually attended the winter meetings and the possibility they'd forget and Harper would accept the minimum evaporated, DeWitt went with the cheaper option.

Because he'll sell 3.5 million tickets again.

Carps on board

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Paul Goldschmidt! Ummm Yes please! ���� ���� let’s do this!!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChristmasMiracle?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ChristmasMiracle</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cardinalnation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#cardinalnation</a></p>&mdash; Matt Carpenter (@MattCarp13) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattCarp13/status/1070457210839408649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sell those tickets!!! Fire that ****ing clown

Every article, blog etc. I've read or seen since this trade says the Cardinals stole Goldy from Arizona. Trade was very lopsided favoring the Cardinals. And I agree.

We are always hanging on to our prospects until their value is practically nill. Kelly is a good example. As soon as they thought Kinzer was going to work out, he should have been traded. That said.......


If this is it for their moves to improve the offense, save me a seat on the fire Mo bandwagon.

Agree with everything you said. We haven't heard it from Mo directly but it sounds like all they are looking for now is a LH bat off the bench and bullpen help. If this is true, it's not enough. He let the roster get this bad. It takes multiple moves to fix it.

Does replacing matt adams count?

Fowler is your opening day right fielder.

ROFL


:cuss:

Yes, it means being honest about what you have. He already has a left-handed bat off the bench...his name is Dexter Fowler. The problem is they will want to try him again as a starter because they are paying him like a starter.

Similarly you need to decide who your utility guy is going to be Gyorko or Munoz. My bet is they will go with Munoz because in their minds he can also play the outfield. Then there is Martinez, who really is just a right-handed bat off the bench. If we are sticking him anywhere in the field as a starter then we suck.

You laugh - that's all that's happening, my friend.

Read this article and tell me I'm wrong. Bill DeWitt has flat out stated that they're not pursuing excellence - it's just not their business model.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/base...dc21b00b8.html

BRC - this is an organization that ADMITS it's targeting 90 wins and 'hopes' that's enough to avoid a play-in game. Their entire approach is centered around winning a down division. He flat out states they plan to win 90 and hope to win more.

Bill DeWitt doesn't have the drive to excel in a division where other teams actually give a shit now.

They aren't doing anything else. This is it. This gets them near 90, it sells tickets, it doesn't take any long-term giant risks. It's right in DeWitt's wheelhouse and anything else takes them out of their comfort level. I'm betting they don't even take a meeting with Boras unless it's Boras trying to foist another shitty reliever on us.

Give me anything this organization has done since LaRussa left to show me I'm wrong. LaRussa was the engine that drove the franchise; the guy that flat shamed them into competing and taking risks. They have nothing like that here anymore and DeWitt has laid his cards on the table.

They're done man.

And I'm not telling you that you are wrong about Dewitt or his approach. I'm old enough to remember Carlton sent packing over a few thousand. Harry Carey sent off due to pick your rumor. Curt Flood etc. But, that same owner also bought the hotel in St. Pete they used for spring training because it didn't allow black and white players to stay in the same hotel. Owners are a fickle bunch.


But, you are the only person I've heard anywhere on the internet or boards that doesn't like this trade. EVERYONE. Doesnt that concern you on your position?



Almost everyone also says they shouldnt be done getting more offensive talent and that doesn't mean a bench player. If so, I'm joining you on the bandwagon.

There's a fire sale going on in Seattle and they have an outfielder named Mitch Haniger with a possibility of needing a new DH, but I dont want to put any ideas in Cardinals heads.

Would probably have to give up someone like Flaherty in the deal to even grab a seat at the table, however.

It's obvious that Jose belongs in the AL. He's found money. We need to get the best deal possible and get him out of here.

Does this guy know more than Nightengale and Langoush?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">From <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dgoold</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/TMASTL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TMASTL</a>: The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> got the guy they wanted this week and did so at 14.5 million. This allows them to be more aggressive with the LH reliever. But, to speak on declaratives that they&#39;re out on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BryceHarper?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BryceHarper</a>, that is premature.</p>&mdash; Tim McKernan (@tmckernan) <a href="https://twitter.com/tmckernan/status/1070673589941231616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 6, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Langoush technically didn't say that they were for sure out on Harper either, just that he's not a target. So for all intents and purposes they sound pretty out on Harper unless his market drops, which it wont.

It's like the Cubs last season with Darvish. They weren't interested at all in Darvish when it was thought he was going to get 170ish million, but then the price started falling more and more and they started to comb their eyebrows.

538:

Conversely, the Cardinals do not have a clear super team in their way in the NL Central. The Cubs might have limited ability to improve this offseason, but the FanGraphs’ forecast has the Brewers regressing in 2019. The Cardinals entered Wednesday projected for four fewer wins than the Cubs, three more wins than the Pirates and six more wins than the Brewers. After the trade, the FanGraphs projection had the Cardinals picking up three wins to be just one game behind the Cubs and nine games better than the Brewers. (The Diamondbacks fell from 82 to 80 wins.) The Cardinals have been stuck in the standings purgatory — winning 88, 83 and 86 games the past three years — where no club wants to reside, but they could break that streak this year.

It just makes me look forward to October all the more. This team's going to win between 88-90 games and be largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things while simultaneously getting older. And when the Cardinals either miss the playoffs or lose in the wild card game, we'll hear the same thing this October that we've heard for the last 5 Octobers and we'll meet back up in December to have the same debate we've had for the last 5 Decembers.

And I reiterate, look at what teams gave up for rentals lately. Anybody saying we 'stole' Goldschmidt isn't paying a damn bit of attention to the retuns on these guys. This isn't 1997. Owners are getting smarter. We have had multiple threats of collusion lawsuits because teams aren't willing to throw money at marginally better than replacement 'name' players like Moustakas and Holland.

These owners know more than ever that youth and cost control is what is serving championship teams. If you're fortunate enough to have a Mookie Betts on your team (the next 2b taken after we took Kolten Wong; Moe's 'floor ahead of ceiling model' strikes again) or Chris Sale (acquired with 4 years of control for Moncada, who we stayed out on because we needed 'dry powder' to go pursue Jonatan Machado 3 years later), then you can go sign a guy like JD Martinez to put you over the hump.

Goldschmidt doesn't do that. And in fact it's a signal to the rest of the league - at least those paying attention to anything the franchise has done since 2012 - that just getting TO the hump is good enough for DeWitt.

We didn't fleece the D-Backs. Again - the market bore what it bore and clearly the market for 1 year of a 31 year old right-handed 1b with 170 strikeouts last year wasn't all that amazing. Why this is a shock to anyone in the baseball community is beyond me.

It's just a radio guy giving information from Goold.

As for Goold...he's a sneaky one. I think he knows people and knows a lot of stuff. But he's also paid by the PD and the Cardinals reign them in a lot. Unfortunately I've gotten to a point where I don't really trust Goold anymore because for every nugget he'll drop, he'll hold something back (and then suggest he knew about it if/when that shoe drops).

When he came out after Saxon's piece on Fowler/Matheny last year and both criticized it and lamented the fact that he wasn't on it, you could see him speaking to both masters at once there. I think he was kinda trying to tell people he knew about it but also didn't want the PD to run afoul of the organization by actual acknowledging it to be true.

I wish I could trust him - but I don't.

Nathan Eovaldi just got $67.5 million over 4 years and he's had exactly one good season in an 8 year career.

Y'all are really going to say that Weaver has no value in this environment? Dudes a former 1st rounder sho has one season in his development where he didn't pitch to that pedigree. Acting like he's nothing is just ignoring the value of pitching in this league.

If Weaver can give you as much as 175 league average innings, he's a $12 million asset. Eovaldi only managed about 120 and got a 4 year guarantee despite a career littered with injuries and ineffectiveness.

To me that says more about not paying a lot for shitty players?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">*Arizona Diamondbacks trade Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis*<br><br>Me - YAY, HE&#39;S FINALLY OUT OF THE NL WEST!<br><br>Also Me - **** YOU <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dbacks</a> FOR TRADING HIM TO ST. LOUIS OF ALL PLACES. YOU PETTY BASTARDS. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dodgers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dodgers</a></p>&mdash; Black Seth Rogen (@ChristianAllen1) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChristianAllen1/status/1070450314036146177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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You would think they might tread carefully with free agent LH relievers.