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Here are more details than you'll want to know: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodol...dictions-work/ |
I found a couple of bugs in the QB scramble subroutine. Teams shouldn't be as effective just running the QB every down going forward.
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No shit, lol. I have Taysom backing Grapes up and just reset my gameplans to give it a try, lol. Thanks for the warning cox. |
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Umberto gotta gameplan now and he's dropping like a boat anchor, lol. This dude wouldn't last more than 5 minutes on CP, lol. Yeah I was testy for a bit but divorce and all? He's giving me hell saying I need to "watch my tone.", lol. He keeps bitching about realistic but yet he thinks this is, lol. Lemme preface this by saying my desktop is Vista so picture of picture, smh. |
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Well, Urbumto kicked my ass 4 x today.
I tried jailbreak blitzing him with VV and he shut me out, worst defeat so far, lol. I just can't beat 50 carry QBs, lol. Aces one strength, sacks, are gone too, smh. My fault for running my mouth. What a shitty week. Apparently my teams do suck. Doesn't help that my D gameplan changes percentage wise with VV every time I leave & come back. I knew I didn't set some of the plans when I'd log in and they're all changed but this latest is bs. Whatever was done to my teams screwed with something. I'm done with Challenge & put the teams up for sale, smh. Good luck to the rest. Go tambaberry! |
Well Billay - I believe that was your last shot at the division.
I think the tie-breakers are actually point differential, but at 3 games back w/ 3 to play and an 0-2 record vs Columbia and a more than 100 pt gap in point differential, I don't think you'll be running me down. You're still a solid favorite for that WC spot though and as we well know, the damn post-season really does seem to be a crapshoot. I've made a couple of MAJOR tweaks to the defense though - so we'll see if that implodes on me. Not sure why because my D has been good, but I think there are some guys I'm wasting that I can get more involved. |
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That was a brilliant defensive performance by your squad. If you would have told me I hold you to 23 I'd like my chances of winning |
6 of my 22 regular season losses have came to DJ lmao
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Get your shit together... (I think you'll make the playoffs with 9 wins, FYI. Gets a little soft in the middle) |
My powerhouse Newport Beach team got thumped by cdcox this week. That's going to be motivation for us in the playoffs.
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Here's the thing about the last game against you I put Taylor on a pitch count he's getting really close to 300 carries and Russ is now putting up Alex Smith stats. I'm glad I have 3 games left with teams who have losing records while Lew has 2 games against teams with winning records. |
Almost pulled off an upset.
Sigh. |
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I think I wrapped up a playoff spot in both leagues. No chance for a championship though
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Let’s do it. ****, DJ. |
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3 picks last time out. He’s unquestionably my limiting factor. |
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Too deep into this roster construction to try anything else though - it's not a team built for power football and ball control style defense. Either he un-****s himself or I'm post-season road-kill. The frustrating part about the guy is he's essentially late career Eli Manning. He still has a 120 passer rating and will go for 60ish TDs and 5500+ yards. But in games where he's bad, he's REALLY bad. He never has a firmly average game. |
At least he is performing somewhat. ****ing Justin Herbert is a sandbox piece of shit.
2855 yards 22tds 12 Ints for a 87.3 rating |
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Too bad there's no in season trades/deadline. I'd offer up a SS running qb. T Hill with extras, lol. |
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I'll take ALL trades this offseason.
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I mean who wouldn't want a guy who, over his last 32 games, has averaged numbers about 40% better than the 2nd greatest season(s) in NFL history? |
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DJ is too afraid to move on from Tannehill he's on some Pioli shit
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Congrats to DJs nutz for being the first to break the 1900 elo rating.
Need more cp members. Maybe a Championship for the Challenge with it being top leagues battling, lol. Get to typing cd, lol. ______ My VV team is still reloading different value #s on defense percentages but they've stayed 0 zero lately with a couple 2's, lol. Both teams had player meetings and went to the media to bitch about me, so it's 2022, I give in and rejoined Challenge. KMart/Sears give me a $1 billion offer for both teams but I'm holding out for Great Value. |
Playoffs clinched. Not bad for a team that's starting QB was out for a month and lost every game in that time frame. Sounds like a Jim Nance line
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Billay in the 5th spot. Yikes.
Man you wasted that roster. |
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My biggest problem is I don't know depth of other teams very well. I just don't have the time to put into the NFL like I used to so it makes putting together a complete roster hard. |
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Got both teams in, league one won my division so have a bye. League two have a wildcard game.
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Congrats to DJ for going undefeated in Raiders1 league. (Regular season) :D
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I hate to burst the braintrust of all of this, and those of you that think you have figured out the system of game planning each week. But I just checked on my teams for the first time this year. In the Chiefs1 league, I went 14-2 for the best record in the league, and haven't touched my team all year. Last year I think I won 2 outta 3 championships...And some how I do this all with Kirk Cousins at QB
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Talking about making changes and then actually doing...lol. Especially with league.
It's never consistent and it prolly shouldn't be. If somethings working I'll leave it alone. Some of us have played over 100 challenge games so if you're like me and get your ass whipped 6-8 times in a row, somethings not working anymore, lol. |
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That team was an absolute freight train. And got even nastier as I figured some stuff out with my rush late in the season. I got my run/pass balance largely in check (6th leading rusher in the league w/ Damien Harris) and only surrendered 13 sacks on the year. Top passer rating surrendered in the league (74.4) and the fewest rushing yards surrendered (#4 in YPC). #2 in total sacks and tops in pressure rate while having nobody get more than 16 sacks (league leaders had 28) and got 7+ sacks from 5 different guys which doesn't even include my Hargrave/Clark pairing that I largely swap out for load management - they got 9 more between them. This team literally did EVERYTHING well. So it will certainly lose in the first round. |
I thought the playoffs started today so when I saw I play again Sunday I was pumped and thought I finally won a playoff game
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Every league needs a Marty. |
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Brutal
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We have unleased Rashaad Penny in League 1. 21 carries for 265 yards in the Wild Card game.
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Marty would've been proud... |
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It was a 90s Chiefs masterpiece, man. |
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I’d prefer you go ahead and lose this week. |
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Sorry but I meant I'd be the one losing my first playoff games. tambaberrys kicked my ass all year so I wasn't expecting to get by him. Close game! I "might" have had your number at beginning but your adjustments have kept Poyer & company at bay since. If there's one thing Im consistent at, its being inconsistent, lol. |
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I think I've got ya. But A) Gotta get there first and B) Gotta actually be right about it. |
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I have an expiring JaMarcus Russell contract I'd trade... Purple drank license, sponsors separate. |
So are we going to be behind the NFL starting it's season by the time the playoffs are over and we work through all the offseason stuff?
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FA will be that 'trickle in' format where certain FAs become available week over week in-season so we shouldn't have the free-agent free for all like we've had in seasons past. |
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There's something of a random assignment of 'weeks' to each eligible FA prior to the season. So Player A may have a 'week 3' designation and Player B has a 'week 5' designation. So after week 3 gets played, bidding will open on Player A. 2 weeks later, Player B opens for bidding. And the question you have to ask yourself, especially early in the season, is if it's worth trying to 'win' a player and burn that cap space that you'd really prefer save for Player B in week 5. But if you don't get the guy in week 5, now what? Moreover, if you win Player A in Week 3 and he gets hurt in Week 4, you're up shit's creek. So are you bettter served to wait until the end of the season to start using your FA money when you have more production/availability data? Possibly - but with that data is going to come more aggressive bidders as well. It's a completely new dynamic and I have no idea how to deal with it. I tried to get some guys on multi-year deals last FA period like Zach Seiler for that very reason - I just didn't want to worry about how I'd deal with his FA period. I knew I could have signed him for $1, but I figured I'd just spend for 3 and know he was on the roster for a couple more seasons while this whole bizarre FA period thing sorts itself out. |
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Yes, still can offer long term contracts to two vets.
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The FA thing is going to make building a roster pretty damn difficult.
When can Billy and I make a trade? |
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DJ. What a f game!!!
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I'll have to give it a look. EDIT: Ah, challenge play - yeah, that's a good one. I have one more lever to pull if I have to play you that I haven't unveiled yet and am frankly just scared to do so in a do/die situation. At the same time...I'm not sure I want you to know what it is either. And my Benton team is just different enough from my CoMo team that I'm not sure how instructive it might be to break it out in challenge play either way... Challenge games seem to have gotten TIGHT lately. I'm playing a ton of 1-score games all of the sudden. Except I can't beat !@#$ing Fergus Falls right now. Got my teams back up to 2-3 in ELO there but then took them both after Fergus and got them both beat. Harumph. |
The good news is that both squads have Deonte Harris and he seems to WRECK your guys and that blitz package.
It's balls or bust against your defense. If you don't get home, you get fisted. EDIT: Man - Grapes is ****ing elite at not getting sacked. For as often as you sack me (and man do you ever), my pressure rate against is usually better than yours. For instance in that game, I put an insane 48.4% pressure rate on you (so yeah, looks like my little playoff adjustment last weekend is showing). But only took Grapes down 3 times. Meanwhile you got pressure on 39.5% of my drop-backs (also ridiculous) but got Dak 7 times. And I think he fumbled on 5 of them. And holy shit - yeah, I wasn't kidding. Harris gets 13 catches on 16 targets for 331 yards! Gonna be a coin-flip if we play because I can't see you dialing down that blitzing - it works for you. But at the same time, I have 2 baller-ass deep threats in Harris and St. Brown and if Dak gets it off, he's going over top of you. |
I ain't got any levers, lol.
I'm using same plans that ",were" working despite getting my ass kicked lately. Fergus has been whipping me too. I'm in a losing streak for both teams lately. Both lost 5 or more in a row. ____ Kansas City Goats are an easy W if you need one. My VV team was down in it's area cleaning house. Now that team sucks. 5-0. Nothing worse than someone who talks shit who can't build a roster and then blames everyone but himself, lol. |
How come the SB message board isn't viewable?
Shirley not cause I called UrBumto.out for being the pos he is? |
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That's the funny part. What makes you think I'm blitzing all the time, lol. I've left D alone non blitzing and my Safeties are still getting after the qb with CCA. I have no.idea how I do it. I use the same plan with my other team and the results are.non existent. Remember, you give me players like Tracy Walker for Kyle Pitts and this isn't a TE friendly sim. 8 game losing streak so I've been challenging you, lol. |
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