Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12956417)

Midseason Prospect Update

Doing something different this time: I dumped everything into a google spreadsheet, which you can access here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

Feel free to share, but I hope my amateur-ish thoughts can be contained to this board and not others.

I ranked 1-36 guys, and have included their position, current level, upside assessment, and notes for each. All based on compiling reports from various web sources, watching video, and some statistical analysis.

Here are some highlights:

1B Nick Pratto - Pratto should move more quickly than most HS draftees due to his polish; already a professional hitter with a plan at the plate and good understanding of the strike zone, the key to his development is going to be applying that knowledge to pick pitches he can do real damage with in hitters counts; has the approach and swing to adjust to a quality two-strike approach. At his best, would project as a plus defender at 1B who hits .280+ consistently with strong OBP profile and 25-30 HR power. Power grade may seem high, but guys who understand the strike zone often get more out of their raw power than guys with more of it who hack away.

OF Khalil Lee - Powerful athlete with speed and arm to stay in RF and be a plus defender. Impressive power and plate discipline profile, paired with high K rate presently. With more contact, top 100 prospect type. Only 18, playing full season ball.

C MJ Melendez - Melendez is going to stick behind the dish, there's little doubt. He already is a good defender, and has the athleticism and plus arm to be an elite defender at the MLB level. He also has good pop from the left side of the plate, and his baseball pedigree is impressive. I'm probably too high on him, but I think we're looking at the Royals' next starting C (potentially arriving just in time to allow Salvador Perez to become a part time C/more time DH-1B in the twilight of his career).

RP Richard Lovelady - Richard (don't call him Dick) Lovelady is on a similar track as Greg Holland… undersized, late-round draftee from a small school whose stuff ticked up as a minor league bullpen piece. Big-time stuff, with mid-to-high 90s heat and a wipeout slider. He has dominated the minor leagues far more than Holland, who seemed to really have something click in the majors, and may quickly force his way up to AAA.

OF Marten Gasparini - I was told to keep ****ing doubting him, and it looks like our resident Marten fan may have been on to something. Gasparini is Mondesi-lite… he's a great athlete with tremendous tools. He got off to a horrendous start to 2017 but has improved with the bat as the weather has heated up.

CF Michael Gigliotti - First-round talent who fell after average JR season. Good speed, has defense to stay in CF (arm profiles a little lighter than liked). Good contact, OBP skills, great baserunner. Ability to drive ball at MLB level is question.

2B Esteury Ruiz - Shout-out to Clint Scoles at BP for alerting the KC internet presence to Ruiz, a scrawny 2B who was signed for a smaller bonus out of the Dominican. That grade may seem crazy, but Ruiz is a good athlete who has put up huge offensive numbers (and huge power numbers) so far (albeit at rookie ball). No Royals prospect in the Dayton Moore era can match his numbers for his level so far.



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Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 12958025)

Which of these guys could help this year?


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Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958271)

5 game losing streak now. Not good

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 12958280)

Yeah but three of those were against the Dodgers.

If they keep playing like this, nothing anyone else does is going to matter. Another blowout tonight, Bellinger hit for the cycle. Alex Wood did not allow a run. Now 11-0 with a 1.56 ERA. They're 63 -29. That's just ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958271)

5 game losing streak now. Not good

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958316)

Wow...nuts. Royals apparently interested in JD Martinez too. Better start getting some wins now

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958316)

Wow...nuts. Royals apparently interested in JD Martinez too. Better start getting some wins now

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958316)

Wow...nuts. Royals apparently interested in JD Martinez too. Better start getting some wins now

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 12958345)

Add Dee Gordon, Pat Neshek & Martinez & they could win this thing.




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Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 12958345)

Add Dee Gordon, Pat Neshek & Martinez & they could win this thing.


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Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 12958378)

I wonder who ends up with the better FA deal... Martinez or Hosmer.

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 12958450)

Please win today Royals...still 3 games back. Very fortunate...

Originally Posted by siberian khatru (Post 12958618)

Nationals get Doolittle, Madson from A's

Originally Posted by penbrook (Post 12959249)

Per Buster Olney

Sources say that the Indians are among the teams evaluating Sonny Gray. Cleveland overcame rotation injuries in '16 to reach Game 7/WS.

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 12959600)

Damn the Dodgers are looking good.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...a0c1d9cf0e.jpg

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 12959695)

Agreed.

Nice rack, Dodgers.

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin (Post 12959629)

how early do you have to get to The K for BP?

Originally Posted by Dartgod (Post 12959751)

That face though...

Originally Posted by Dartgod (Post 12959751)

That face though...

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 12959600)

Damn the Dodgers are looking good.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...a0c1d9cf0e.jpg

Originally Posted by DeepSouth (Post 12959994)

The first two games against the Tigers, the Royals will be starting Left Handed pitchers (Vargas & Woods). Is this just the way it worked out or is there some strategy about lefties against Detroit?

Originally Posted by Why Not? (Post 12960027)

I highly doubt the strategy against Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez and Ian Kinsler is to purposely arrange your rotation to make sure they get ab's against your lefties.

Originally Posted by DeepSouth (Post 12960076)

You're probably correct but, three out of the four games with Detroit, the Royals will be starting a lefty;

Vargas
Wood
Hammel
Duffy

Originally Posted by penbrook (Post 12960190)

We need a DH more than anything

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12960179)

Royals said to be 'very aggressive' in their pursuit of Lance Lynn.

Eh. Cuthbert's been hurt all season and bad. Dozier's been hurt. The Cardinals don't need pitching unless it's righthanded bullpen help and if the Cards were looking short term well hell, they could just move Lynn to the 'pen.

Pitching salaries are crazy enough that the Cardinals could price-enforce Lynn into a likely sandwich pick this offseason. Offer him 4/$52 and he wouldn't take it, but it would be a starting point in negotiations and could yield him getting over that $50 million threshold (the only way he'd stay below it is if he took less term; 3/$48 or something like that). That being the case, the bare minimum return they should take is the rough value of that sandwich slot (so a fringe 1st round talent). If I'm the Royals I probably don't give that up.

Besides, the Royals SS and 1b cupboard is pretty bare. That's where the Cardinals really need help.

I'm honestly not sure I see a deal lining up here but baseball is weird so who knows?

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12960229)

Two of the Royals top five prospects are SS at AA or higher (Mondesi at Omaha, Nicky Lopez at Northwest Arkansas). KC would actually match up fairly well there if the Cardinals are interested in Lopez.

Lopez is a college guy from Creighton with above average OBP skills. Not a ton of pop, but good speed and a good defender who will stick at SS.

I don't think the Cardinals can offer a larger contract and get the QO compensation, though I may be wrong. Believe it has to be the one year, $18 million qualifying offer.

Don't think Lynn would take that at this point, but who knows?


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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 12958542)

Sell this shit team


They had a 10 game homestsnd vs losing teams to open up the 2H. Already face planted first 2. If they don't win 5/8 left, the team should be sold top to bottom

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12960179)

Royals said to be 'very aggressive' in their pursuit of Lance Lynn.

Eh. Cuthbert's been hurt all season and bad. Dozier's been hurt. The Cardinals don't need pitching unless it's righthanded bullpen help and if the Cards were looking short term well hell, they could just move Lynn to the 'pen.

Pitching salaries are crazy enough that the Cardinals could price-enforce Lynn into a likely sandwich pick this offseason. Offer him 4/$52 and he wouldn't take it, but it would be a starting point in negotiations and could yield him getting over that $50 million threshold (the only way he'd stay below it is if he took less term; 3/$48 or something like that). That being the case, the bare minimum return they should take is the rough value of that sandwich slot (so a fringe 1st round talent). If I'm the Royals I probably don't give that up.

Besides, the Royals SS and 1b cupboard is pretty bare. That's where the Cardinals really need help.

I'm honestly not sure I see a deal lining up here but baseball is weird so who knows?

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats. (Post 12959782)

That's crap, i didn't know you had to pay now, you used to be able to get in free.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 12960263)

Strahm straight up is FV but then, I really like Strahm.


The Cards aren't selling despite your protestations. Their FG playoff odds are actually better than the Royals (24% - 22%) so who exactly would be the seller there? The NL is hot dogshit outside 2 excellent teams.


What's Lynn's current value anyway? Pitch FX says his velocity is down 1-2mph and his FB value has gone from elite to good. Given his secondary stuff has always had slightly negative value, it may be fair to ask: did Lynns injury sap his FB veto or location or movement? If so he's JAG at the back of a rotation, Edinson Volquez redux

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12960228)

I'm sure the Royals haven't soured on Mondesi at all, have they? He seems like a complete non-starter but would Lynn + DeJong get any traction?



DeJong's hit the hell out of the ball and played SS for the Cardinals for the last month. Full disclosure - I don't think that's his true talent level nor do I think he's an actual SS, but he can probably make himself almost league average defensively and even if he never draws walks, he'll always have 20 HR power.



So...maybe a 2-2.5 WAR player at SS? Give or take. And he'd be able to help the Royals right now if that's what they have in mind.



If I'm KC I don't even consider Mondesi as part of a Lynn deal but if I'm the Cardinals, I don't see a way to get a trade made that he's not a part of.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12960285)

I agree. Lynn is a JAG at the back of a rotation. But the question isn't necessarily what I'd pay for him as much as what the market will bear for him.

That's why I say his value should start at roughly the compensation pick - I think he'll decline the QO and get the money he needs to break that $50 million threshold. As such, that's where any offer the Cardinals should consider needs to start. And if I'm the Royals, I wouldn't give up that much to get him.

Originally Posted by penbrook (Post 12960395)

What would it take to get a package deal for Justin Wilson and J.D Martinez

Originally Posted by Bufkin (Post 12960323)

I'll be at the K tonight chilling in the Blue Moon Tap Room with Joe Randa, Mike Sweeney, and a few other lucky Royals Charity winners. Vargas on the mound tonight is simply icing on the cake.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12945808)

Regression is possible - and some is likely - but a second half where he gives up enough runs to land in the mid-3s for the year would require some extreme regression. Assume he makes 15 starts and averages six innings a start... he'd need to give up 46 earned runs to get to a mid-3 ERA. Just that mark would require him to pitch to a 4.60 ERA in the second half.

If he pitches to a mid-3 ERA in the second half, you're looking at a final ERA in the low 3s

3.75 (in line with his FIP, which I place little general stock in): 3.25

4: 3.39

I'll also mention that Rick Porcello, 2016 Cy Young winner, is a good example of why it's possible Vargas just continues to do this all year.

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Originally Posted by Al Bundy (Post 12960721)

Vargas should have gone 120 tonight for what he did tonight.

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 12960786)

At the game so I can't embed, but Royals have a scout watching Julio Teheran tonight per David O'Brien's Twitter.