Why an arbitrary 6 games? What about the last 4? Or 5?

Cherry picking.

That's his thing. He has to cherry pick to make his point. He always has, always will.

I just went with the same size pro football reference tweeted out. A nice independent judge.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Over the last six weeks, Ben Roethlisberger has 1,953 yards and 16 TDs. That&#39;s three more TDs and 88 more yards than any other QB in that span <a href="https://t.co/Qwg6Bgkx6H">https://t.co/Qwg6Bgkx6H</a> <a href="https://t.co/JH035QfVuy">pic.twitter.com/JH035QfVuy</a></p>&mdash; ProFootballReference (@pfref) <a href="https://twitter.com/pfref/status/946809341188993024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Since you seem interested in changing the data to see if it still fits, though, let's go with an even LARGER sample size to give us an even better picture.

Last eight games.

16th in TDs,
14th in QB rating
15th in YPA

Average Alex!

So average huh. I'm shocked.

Everyone has an agenda. Let's take a look over the past 4 weeks, when Reid gave up play calling duties.

TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th
YPA - 4th
Aypa - 3rd

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Sample size too small. Skewed by the Jets game.

i.e. That doesn't fit his narrative.

It would seem there is more data supporting it than this other narrative though.

A 6, 8 or 3-game sample size suitably impugns Smith.

Homers want to overweight the Jets game within their own narrative. I simply balance it out.

the point is you can play your game for every QB in the league. Big Ben from weeks 3-9 was in the bottom 3rd of the league in every statistical category besides INT...LOL. like I said, Lies Damn Lies and Statistics.

Yet you throw out the first 6 weeks of the season entirely because Smith was on fire. Admit it Clay. You would have bet your left nut that Smith would never throw for 4000 yards and 26 TD's in 15 games. He has had a really good year. It's okay to admit that, no matter how much you loathe him.

It would seem the first five weeks were very much a mirage, considering the decline to average since.

It's true he was. That seems irrelevant now, no?

You want to be hot going into the playoffs. Big Ben is the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Alex is rather lukewarm.

Alex's numbers are much better the past 4 weeks than they were during the slump. So wouldn't you say that he is getting hot at the right time too?

He's 26th in TDs and 11th in QB rating in the last three games.

That's not hot.

The Jets game is an outlier.

There you go throwing out the Jets game to make your point.

These numbers look pretty hot to me. I refuse to let you throw out his best game in the past 4 to make your point.


TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th
YPA - 4th
Aypa - 3rd

It's irrelevant IMO, barring an injury, no way they start Mahomes in the playoffs. The fan base wont tolerate anyone other than Mahomes starting in 2018. The die is set.

or more importantly, the Chiefs are getting hot at the right time. Smith has been doing what it takes to get solid wins.

Again, too small a sample size, too greatly skewed by one game.

Ok. You're right. We should look at the entire season. Oh. What do you know? Those numbers look pretty good.

Last I checked, 4 games is more than 3(which is what you just cited). And it also coincides with when Nagy took over play calling. The Jets game is included for everyone that isn't an irrational hater.

Too large a sample size. Especially when it's obvious to all that version of Alex Smith hasn't returned.

LMAO and this is exactly why you have zero credibility

I think it's less credible to only focus on the one sample size that supports your position.

I've got the 3-game, 6-game and 8-game sample size supporting mine.

I guess you can hope and pray that outlier Alex returns, but that seems unlikely.

He seems more likely to give us an average game against the top defense in football.

The ban can't start soon enough.

One mother****er posts a picture.

35 pages of argufyin' mother****ers.

It's gonna be epic.

Dinny

Alex Smith is a game manager now that the defense has settled down

He started out as a game winner in weeks 1-8

Then as a game loser in weeks 9-12

Now a game manager in weeks 13-16

If the defense keeps playing well and the run game keeps going this is almost all we need. The yards are there. We just need more touchdowns in the red zone.

And I've got the first 5 game, the last 4 game, and the 15 game season samples supporting my case. I'm not seeing how your sample sizes are more valid than mine. You are cherry picking the games that support your irrational hatred.

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

Smitty had a good season and led us to the playoffs and our first back-to-back AFC West Championships ever. Stop over-analyzing the season like you are a psychologist. He played great this year.

You're an idiot and a hater if you can't admit he had a great season..

What a ridiculously bad take LMAO

Dude, do you even football?

Do you think if Aaron Rodgers had taken over the Packers even though Brett was still there that he'd be as good as he is? No one really knows but we do know he sat behind one of the greatest players of al time and has cemented himself as one of the best to ever play the game.

I'll give this young man the opportunity to learn the NFL. However, High School and College football does not compare.

Specifically talking physical traits Pat and Aarron Rodgers are strikingly similar but as far as the mental side yes Rodgers was farther ahead coming out of Cal. Rodgers thrives outside the pocket throwing unbelievable balls that's never been witnessed in the NFL. Mahomes has the same arm strength and ability in my opinion. Not saying Mahomes is any where near Rodgers game at this point (because he's not) but there's a lot of hope and optimism in KC. However.

Hope and optimism do not win games..in AFC west

Dumbass

He's not even on the same tier as Alex Smith yet.

Not too hard to go one and done in the playoffs like Alex does.

Hahahahahahahahahaha.....JFC....if there is anyone, absolutely ANYONE, that still buys in to anything you have to say...this did ended that. This is lazy trolling.

And I agree. However, give him another year at least or two (possibly) before expecting him to start. Smith is easily good enough to win a Superbowl this year.

Forces the ball into dangerous places?

He had one bad decision where he lobbed the ball up into double coverage to Harris

That was it.

Both sides of the sitting vs playing argument have winners.

What about Manning, Brady, Ryan, Wilson, Big Ben etc...?

They all played right away and are/were great quarterbacks.

Something must have happened on the release. Harris was 2 steps behind everyone and not double covered. The last guy got over there very late, as the pass came in like a fair- catch punt. Happened right in front of me at the game. Normal Mahomes pass from that game, and it's game over.

It looked very much like the plays Clay has gifed up from the all22s that show open receivers that Smith doesn't throw to. Mahomes did. But for some reason, Harris had to stop, and another defender came in late to make it look like double coverage. Mahomes leads Harris, and that is an easy TD.

He would benefit from another year behind Smith. If Smith does down the kid will give you at least 50% chance of winning games while he is out

Rodgers and Smith escape the pocket and get those sneaky yards a lot better. Again just a small sample size. Pat has several years into he's even at where Rodgers was when he first got the start... You can tell by the maturity, decision making, demeanor, quality of throws

Alex is a better runner than Rodgers or mahomes. The comparison ends there. Alex is not good throwing on the run, let alone looking to throw, let alone taking chances throwing on the run. And he's not good about knowing his pocket to initially escape pressure. In those areas, mahomes looks like he could be Rodgers like.

Yes. Aaron Rodgers would have been fine.

Like any young qb, he would have learned while he played. Just as Wentz is doing. Just as Goff is doing. Just as Watson was doing.

LOL. Smith isn't even in the same ballpark as Rodgers in evading pressure and buying time.

Mahomes on the other hand...

https://i.imgur.com/yAMm8tf.gif

More like sell high on Alex and insert the Ferrari into the offense at QB.

I’d be tempted to just go with Mahomes now honestly. Mahomes is a stud.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I didn't think it was possible for your sports takes to be worse than your political takes, but here we are.

I think the Rodger situation is different.

Rodgers fell into Green Bays lap. They didnt move up 15 spots and use future draft capitol to get him.

They probably weren't planning on taking him, he just kind of fell to them. They didnt move up because they already had a Hall of fame bound QB, and even then they probably only took Aaron because Favre was 36 years old.

The Chiefs aren't keeping the Ferrari in the garage another year. That thought died yesterday.

That's ****ing insane. Shitty runs in circles there before heaving it into the bleachers.

I just cant even wrap my head around this. Doesn't seem real.

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?

:p

... but Mahomes did enough overall to give everyone some confidence in his future.

I still feel sure Smith is gone from KC next season.

Roby was covering a guy in the flat. He never had a chance to make a play there.

He got lucky on that play, too. This game is to close to afford Mahomes an interception returned for a touchdown.

So, once is too many and it gives me pause. I see Brett Farve 2.0 in this way. Also, he's likely going to fumble the ball as well as much as he scrambles after being pocket flushed.

Ultimately, my concern is by comparison. One or two bad decisions equals an interception, fumble, or both. If you are going to make excuses for one or two bad decisions, let's at least look at what you're apologizing for potentially.

Here is a glance at Farves career: owns the all-time fumbles record at 166 (losing 73) in addition to throwing 336 interceptions. That's an astounding 406 turnovers, or an average of 1.33 per game over his 302 game regular season career.

And these numbers don't include playoffs. He owns the playoff record of interceptions at 30 and fumbled 11 times (losing 6) in 24 games. That's 1.5 turnovers per playoff game --even more horrific than his regular season performances.

Incidentally, Farve went to the playoffs 12 times and amassed a record of 13 and 11, including 1 and 1 on the "best team I've ever been on."

How important were his turnovers in those 11 losses?

This person either doesn't know shit about football or didn't watch the game against Denver.

Oh look, ad hominem. Refute what is written

**** you! You think your opinion means more? No, it doesn't. I saw a rookie QB come out yesterday and was a little inaccurate for the first couple of drives. Then he settled down and started making plays. He stepped up in the pocket under pressure and delivered strikes. Even when there wasn't anything open he made plays. Your assessment is flawed.

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

Go back to whatever rock you crawled out from under.

Favre forced the ball almost every time. With his arm strength, a lot of times he got away with it. But those weren't smart decisions, because a lot of things could happen with those forced throws, if the ball wasn't placed perfectly, it was an int.

And, a lot of times, it was an int.

Rodgers just doesn't force throws, most of the time. It helps tremenduously that his long range accuracy is off the charts and that, like Favre, he's capable of making the backfoot throw. Much like Mahomes did in that gif where the pass is incomplete off the back pedal on his back foot.

Despite a very average overall completion rate, Favre's rates for deep right and deep left passes are well below average. That means in order to have an overall average completion rate, he must be gorging on the dink and dunk stuff. Which is Mahomes weakness...the short, intermediate range passes.

Yes, we will see what happens, starting next year. Look, I wanted Alex Smith to succeed because I'm a Chiefs fan through and through But I've seen enough of his limitations to know that he's never going to take us to the SB unless the defense plays lights out. Mahommes is as ready as he needs to be. Sure, he will make mistakes as he grows and learns. That happens with all young QBs. But the upside will make it well worth it, IMO.

The "Alex or Nothing" fan club is nervous.

What's wrong in his game that he can't drop back and throw the ball without play action?

Lots to be excited for, in terms of talent. Regardless, we won't know until midseason whether he had tendancies that defenses will pick apart.

See: Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick, even Cam Newton.

Sure sounds like Shitty is on the way out. A little parting shot by Reid.

"They threw the house at him on those blitzes and he made a couple of nice checks, and then he just kind of made plays and guys were on him and he moved around and made some of those throws... <b>not many people can make those.</B>”

~ Andy Reid on Patrick

#29 was covering someone else. He turned around to get closer. If he had gone for the pick he would have had no chance.

He has great closing speed which makes the pass look more dangerous than it was. But the all-22 will show that he was covering someone else and simply closed on Robinson later but hadn't little to no chance at an interception

Odds are Andy wanted to slow down their pass rush against the scrub O-Line with lots of play action. Simple concept.

The raiders D is a better metric than Denver’s ?
ROFL

And Denver played their starters most of the game. So don’t think about pulling that nonsense

It's a wrap. Andy was saying all of that stuff yesterday about how appreciative Mahomes should be of Alex because he knows he's about to trade him off elsewhere.

I saw a Chiefs team play a bunch of backups in both sides of the ball.

Mahomes best receiver all game was Wilson, and his bet RB was the Sausage

You must seriously be a closet Raider fan.....the Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball?:rolleyes:

Carr is showing his tendency to be Phillip Rivers V2.0....Marshawn Lynch isn't the RB he was with Seattle...and Crabtree/Cooper combo is great one minute and then disappear the next. On offense the studs are Osemele and Hudson.

Khalil Mack is a stud on defense...would love to have him here in KC. Bowman was a great pickup but I think he still is a step slower than in his prime. Beyond that I don't see anything more than decent talent.

No, I'm not a Raiders fan.

However, I do agree that the Raiders have MVP talent in (both) Carr, and Mack. Also, I think your Rivers comparison is really close to being spot on---inconsistent footwork, sandlot player, throws without touch a lot of times.

Air Raid QB's don't have a lot of success in the NFL

If you can't be excited for the future after watching Mahomes make his pro debut yesterday, then you just flat don't want to be excited for Mahomes.

I can't really dispute this rationale. I love watching this kid play.. He is a play-maker. I think Mahomes style of play is rare in this league. Certainly one of the more intriguing arms, right now. I believe he has made strides and therefore I like his effort to be an improved player.

It's just that guys like him have spotty (inconsistent) success

He's a Donkey, but basically the same thing.

That is unreal. Smith would never complete that pass in a 100 tries, and probably wouldn't have even targeted Robinson on that play, especially with a check down receiver 5 yards in front of him.

I'm comparing Mahomes to Brett Favre the Hall of Famer and not Brett Favre the NFL prospect. Mahomes has the same problem that all air raid QBs have - they have to unlearn a lot of what would be bad habits at the next level and then retrain themselves substantially in order to play in the NFL. And the curse is worse with the best of them. The better they have the air raid ingrained in their muscle memory and reactions, the harder it is for them to shake these traits that are undesirable at the NFL level and then get themselves completely rebooted.

Love Mahomes but think it's still premature to start the kid.