At least the Cubs don't have to worry about giving Baez a MVP arbitration bonus next year, thanks Yelich.

Do you think that Indiana is just a void of baseball fans? Hell, your own post points out that you don't have to be in the same state to be a fan.

You are criminally incapable of admitting when you're wrong. There's no geographic distance issue. If I'm in the middle of Indiana I'm no more than 3-4 hours from each of those cities.

Ya ok bud. There's clearly no geographical difference between where the Reds and Pirates are compared to the rest of the division.

Leaving Chicago you'll run into ****ing Tigers fans before sniffing a Reds fan. Hell the Cardinals control equal if not more of the Indiana fan base than the Reds.

Meanwhile if you start heading towards St. Louis there wont be any other major fan base to weave through to get to the Cardinals fans because once you start getting to around Bloomington its gonna start getting a little more red. Or if you start heading to Milwaukee there's obviously gonna be a little more Navy than Royal once you get past the border.

But, but, but.... Google maps says...

What do you guys think of posting what the Cardinals should do this off season. I’ll Put the answers in the opening post in a spoiler and it can be in the 2019 thread.

Are you diehard Cards fans mad they didn't make the wildcard or glad because you think they would have failed and want to see major changes next year?

Do you think they are going in the right direction for the next few years or too old and not improving the depth of younger players?

What was the biggest let down on the team this year?

I saw Carpenter was fantastic as always

Go all in pre-flop on Harper or Machado with a 2-6 offsuit and hope its enough.

You do realize that St Louis will be up against the big boys(Boston, Yankees, Dodgers) in this bidding war right?

$300+ million. Yikes!

Its irritating considering how they folded in August, that was a terrible collapse.

Long term its probably better though as they need to make some major moves.

And Carpenter wasn't fantastic, he had a 3 month stretch he was unreal and 3 months where he was absolute total dogshit. August being one of those months so he is a big part of why they flopped. I would take a more consistent player without the crazy hot streaks. Trade him if you can is my opinion.

Because 5-win players making $14 million grow on trees.

I was in the middle of typing out a long form post and deleted it, because it doesn't really matter. The only thing that matters is firing Mozeliak and Girsch, and here's why:

1) They passed up Donaldson for nothing but salary, and he's hit .280/.404/.511 this month. Maybe that would be an improvement over Gyorko's .227/.333/.273. Just maybe.

2) They traded Pham at the nadir of his value, and in the second half, he has a wRC of 171, including 205 this month. Basically, since going to Tampa, Pham has been the third best hitter in baseball. I ****ing told you guys.... But hey, gotta keep running Dexter Fowler out there to keep losing you games and then stuff an oaf like Martinez in RF once the $80 million albatross blows a tire.

3) They overvalued their glut of average arms in the minors and wouldn't package them to get Yelich, instead getting Ozuna, and there is a five win difference between those players (along with years of additional control for the former).

4) Their hand-picked manager couldn't realize that luck was catching up to Norris, who blew the first two games of the month in spectacular, yet obvious fashion.

5) Their "fixes" were papering over drywall holes using bullshit as an adhesive.


So what are you going to do in 2019? Hope that Molina can hold it together for yet another season? Hope that Wacha and Reyes can actually give you meaningful innings? Hope that all those AAAA pitchers don't regress and destroy their value? Are they actually gonna run Waino out there for one more year on a four start sample?

This team is on the precipice of turning themselves into the Giants if they don't watch out. You have to be able to properly evaluate your players. Because they didn't, they slammed the window from this year on their own fingers and now they don't have one for a couple years to boot. Oh, and they might have just given the Yankees a first baseman for the next half decade for Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos.

****ing idiots.

Yup. Fire Mo has always been the only option

Pretty sure O'Neill's reaction to that ball just gave Contreras a HR when it should have been a double. Good looking out O'Neill.

YES!!

So JD, you lose the division with a 5 game lead in less than a month. Forced into a one game decider. Lose. Get to watch the Brewers celebrate the division win on your field. Next day you lose the wild card game and then you have to see the Rockies celebrate on your field. Two times in two days. Yikes.

You purposely lost 100 games for what 3-4 years to get draft picks. You got 1 WS. Was it enough when you were expecting a dynasty?

So BRC, you watched Tony LaRussa hand off a WS team only to miss the playoffs for 3 years in a row now and you are still trying to bad mouth a team that went to 3 straight NLCS?

Newsflash: The Cubs are still a really good team that needs minor tweaks with a closer and a leadoff bat... along with a new hitting coach that can actually teach awareness like "Hey Bryant, dont swing because our Manager pinch ran Gore for Rizzo, instead of for Happ 2 innings ago, and they arent going to throw you a strike."

its all I got.

And the 4 WS championships won by my team in my lifetime, including one in person. :harumph:

Carpenter is fools gold, even you should realize this by now.

When he gets cold, he is like a ****ing iceberg. For looooooong periods of time.

He was absolute garbage when they needed him down the stretch. I know he carried them for a period but it doesn't matter if in the end when you NEED him he sucks ass.

He has always and always will be a head case.

I've posted on here so many times that I've lost count that Gyrko sucks and I wanted him gone. You and DJ were telling me Gryko was a great hitter. Now you want him gone? Or am I confused about your opinion and it was all DJ?
Pham has had these runs when he plays like an All-Star. He always returns to his norm. JAG. Now a 30+ year old JAG. He is what he is at this point.
You also leave out why he was traded, the crowded outfield and giving a chance for Bader to play. Bader has a 2+ WAR just for his defense. This team needs his defense badly.I think the young pitchers just got tired. Most pitched past the standard innings increase of 20% yearly.

Every report, every one from every source says Yelich wasn't available. Were the Cardinals supposed to sit on their hands and then wait, wait some more until he maybe becomes available? They shouldn't have waited. The Cardinals "wait" too long way too many times. They need to be more aggressive in the off season. I'm not faulting them for not waiting.

Also, I heard Rosenthal on a MLB tv panel discussing if the Cardinals could have done more at the trade deadline. He said if they had waited it would have took, Flaherty, Bader, O'neil and Alacantra. Thats a damn steep price.

That is a fault of all managers. This is "their" guy and they stick with them. Maddon who was a hero as late as last year to Cub fans are now calling for a new manager because of this tendency.I agree. They should have done more at the deadline but lets be real, none of the moves would have made a difference for us in beating the Brewers in a NLDCS. There is just too much of a gap in talent
WTF? Now Voit is an All-Star?:eek: GTFO

Can you identify which is Jose Quintana ($9M), Jon Lester ($23M), and Jacob Junis ($0.5M)?


57 qualified pitchers this year, this is the Fangraphs WAR leaderboard:



49. 184.2ip 7.38k/9 3.17bb/9 80%lob 4.39fip 1.6war
50. 174.1ip 8.16k/9 3.51bb/9 77%lob 4.43fip 1.4war
52. 177.0ip 8.34k/9 2.19bb/9 76%lob 4.64fip 1.3war

Hey PB, can you honestly identify a position where some low cost player doesn't compare statistically to someone more expensive?

You are trying to suggest that the Cubs have a problem at pitching by saying that out of the 150+ starters the Cubs have 2 that made a qualifying list for an entire season while ignoring how good the entire staff as a whole was for the 2nd half.

The Cubs don't have a starting pitching issue.

With last night's 1 run offensive showing, the Cubs tied the Orioles for the most games in which a team has scored 1 or fewer runs.

They desperately need consistent hitting which they haven't had since they lost an actual lead off hitter like Fowler was when he was with the Cubs.

Also, Chili Davis needs to be fired by the end of the day. He should have been fired before the final pitch of last night's game. There was never a hot streak for this offense all season. They had single game performances where they would pile on which would make you think that they were breaking out. Then the very next series struggle to put up 4 runs for the entire series because they were the most inept situational team at the plate I think I've ever seen. Chili might have been a good hitter during his career but he obviously can't teach a damn thing. He was fired from the Red Sox for the offense regressing to the point of being below league average and that's exactly what happened to the Cubs in his first year. When everyone else is teaching launch angles and you see guys like Matt Carpenter and Daniel Murphy break out after switching to that philosophy, Chili is over here teaching pitch counts, short swings, and contact and you are left with a team that isn't aggressive at the plate while being absolute garbage at everything he's trying to teach.

Other than the hitting the Cubs definitely need an actual closer that isn't a failed injury prone starter turned overused setup man turned Cubs closer.

Just surprised you're ok with Theo blowing 55M on three vets who are basically Jake Junis. If you're cool with that I won't get in the way. Theodore strategy of developing the hitting get the pitching failed this year. And I don't think it gets better next year.


You're wrong the rotation was fine. It wasn't. It was the worst or near worst in MLB according to Fangraphs. Boy Wonder turned into Boy Blunder this year.

Your entire argument is based on a stat sheet that is taking in the horrible first half the entire staff had while ignoring the obvious improvement in each and every one of them throughout the season.

Lester had a hiccup for a handful of games after the ASB but overall kept the other team in check.

Quintana had nearly a 2 month stretch later in the year when he had a sub 2 ERA.

Hendricks started with a 5+ ERA and ended with 14 wins and a 3.44 ERA.

A lot of the Cubs ugly rotation numbers came from Tyler Chatwood who isn't in the rotation any more and I suspect the Cubs will extend Cole Hamels to get his number down for next year.

So you keep on looking at stat sheets and I'll keep watching the actual games.

I still fear the Cubs but as a Cardinals fan whose closest friends are all Cubs fans, I'm so happy they got knocked out of the WC.

As a Cardinal fan who works in Chicago, I'm just glad they'll all be drinking a nice steaming cup of SHUT THE **** UP. :grr:

Yeah you keep watching Cubs, I'll keep watching the Royals. It's the same exact rotation so we can both speak about the other. Hamels pitched really well and was the only diff between the rotations. If you're ok being the same SP as the Royals headed into 2019, which you will be w/o Hamels (and maybe even with him if he reverts to recent form), I won't stop you.

Your and idiot.

Stick to last place baseball and thinking your team is in any way comparable to 90+ win teams.

From Bernie's article on the Athletic

The Cardinals’ middle-of-the-lineup performance has been among the worst in the majors over the past three seasons.

Three seasons, we remind you, that ended without any postseason baseball in St. Louis.

This should provide a clue as to why:
Using the splits leaderboard at FanGraphs, I looked at the combined numbers from the 3, 4 and 5 lineup spots from 2016 through 2018. Here’s where the Cardinals 3-4-5 spots ranked, as a block, among the 30 MLB teams over the past three seasons:
On-base percentage: 24th (.323)
Slugging percentage: 29th (.424)
OPS: Tied for 29th (.747)
Park-adjusted runs created: 27th
Isolated power: 28th (.169)
Runs batted in: 14th

Pathetic, yes?

Geez, it’s just as bad if we add the No. 2 lineup spot into the mix. Over the last three seasons, the Cardinals’ 2-3-4-5 hitters (combined) rank 24th in OPS and 27th in park-adjusted runs created.

If all of this isn’t a scream for Mr. DeWitt to go all-in on a free-agent bid for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, I don’t know what else to say.


Well, other than this: The terrain has changed. It’s no longer 2001, or even 2011. The Cardinals are also-rans, three years and counting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Cubs have Rizzo/Baez/Bryant. The Brewers have Cain/Yelich. If we want to compete against those teams who are not going away, the Cardinals need to change their ways.

The Cardinals have plenty of money. I remember that Baseball Village profits were suppose to help them raise their payroll. 3 million fans every year despite their missing the playoffs the last 3 years.

If Dewitt was willing to put $310 million on the table for Stanton, they need to to put $350-$375 million on the table or whatever it takes. Some team offers $300, you offer $325. They offer $350, you offer $375. You give one of them a 10 year guaranteed contract. No trade clause. Give them an opt-out after 5 years. They leave, you got their best prime years.

No more half measures, pick up a few JAG relievers at deadlines. They need more offense and a MOTOB. No excuses. Get the deal done.

BRC,

JAGs don't put up 10 WAR over two year stretches. In fact, neither does anyone on the Cardinals.

fWAR true talent: cards 87.7 wins cubbies 87.6


I've explained at times here that the Cubs were vastly overrated and lucky to win as many as they did, and I also explained their rotation is in freefall and next year you will see the final collapse. The Cub homer here didn't like that be deep down he knows it's. True

There will likely be 4 Central teams winning in the 80s next year, Cubs the slight faces, but a halfway competent off-season and Cards can easily take the division. A bad one and they can be an 80 win fourth place team. The

You've explained nothing beyond what you think you know from reading a stat sheet.

You have no understanding of what happened during the season from any team in the division and you are so delusional that you think the Royals have a comparable starting rotation to the Cubs.

There is not a single person that is going to buy into anything you are trying to sell because from top to bottom the Cubs have one of the best rosters in all of baseball. The only thing that will derail them right now is a series of injuries.

The Cubs scored the 9th most runs in MLB.
The Cubs had the 10th best rotation in MLB in terms of ERA.
The Cubs had the 3rd best team ERA in MLB.

Ya... they got lucky to win as many as they did.

All while missing significant portions of time from key players in both the lineup and rotation and bullpen. The collapse is near!!!!!!!!

Are the Cardinals seriously considering re-signing Waino? He was a great player for a long time, but he just doesn't have it anymore. He needs to hang it up.

If Mo does this, DeWitt should can his ass.

Guess I don't completely hate it if its not much money and not expected as a starter. However, the obvious concern is giving him one of those living in the past deals and pencil in as a starter which is the last thing they should be doing with him looking washed.

yeah, as long as they give him a JAG contract and tell him he has to earn everything and will pitch in the bullpen, fine. I could see some benefit of hitters facing him, then the next time Hicks. Being a valuable teacher to the young pitchers.

But, as a starter. **** that. With a multi year contract? **** that.They have already sacrificed games to let him pitch this year.

Derail what? The fact that you all are not in the postseason says it all.

Says it all?

It says this was the first year where the Cubs went through significant injuries for extended periods of time over the course of making their 4th straight post season with the previous 3 trips going to at least the NLCS.

If anything the offensive collapse the Cubs went through during the 2nd half will light a fire under Theo's ass to finally trade some of the redundant players on the MLB roster for pieces that compliment the rest of the roster to make a complete team.

Im also hopeful that after listening to his press conference he's getting an earful about Chili Davis because the Cubs went from a launch angle hitting coach to a guy who would rather see ground ball contact and the results speak for themselves. The Cubs stopped driving the ball in the air and in Theo's own words the offense "broke."

Shut up with your injuries nonsense. You had 10 guys make over 450PA and your rotation had 3 guys make all 32 starts and a 4th did when you combine chatwood and hamels

Ya missing a MVP like Bryant for 1/3 of the season, a closer for half the season, and a starter for damn near a whole season aren't big deals at all.

Go back to suggesting one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball is basically the same as a top 10 staff.

You aren't a top 10 staff and you didn't have injuries problems, tard

You just weren't nearly as good as you thought. Colorado agrees with me

I've already posted the numbers that tell you that you are an idiot.

I believe there is a thread on this forum dedicated to the last place Royals.

He's sad because his great Cubs dynasty will only result to 1 WS.

It may or may not end with 1 WS. It's only been 2 years since they won a WS and they were the first team to actually reach the playoffs after winning the WS since the Phillies?

They have Bryant and Rizzo locked up for 3 more years with a team still winning 95+ games a season.

Let me know when the Royals and Cardinals make it to the post season again.

In the past century, the Cubs have won two pennants and one World Series.

The Royals won two pennants and one World Series in two years.

Well, except for the Cardinals, who not only reached the playoffs, but won at least one playoff series for the next three seasons.

Ya nice selective timelines.

In those same 2 years the Royals won the WS the Cardinals were eliminated by the Cubs in playoffs, never to be seen again.

Forgot about the Cardinals since they haven't been shit since LaRussa left. My mistake.

Yeah, they only won another pennant and four total playoff series in those intervening years compared to, what, one for the Cubs since theirs?

One what? World Series? Ya that would be a bit better than winning a pennant.

1. Tank. Lose 100 games for 3-4 years on purpose.
2. Draft in the top 5 and get great position players.
3. Lose some more while those position players develop.
4. When they reach MLB, buy free agent pitchers to complete the roster

Obviously #4 is where the plan went off the rails. If you haven't won a title in 109 years, maybe 1 WS title makes all the losing worth it? But, I've seen my team win 5 WS's(including 1 live in person) and they never forced me, on purpose as a plan, to watch crap baseball for YEARS just so we have a chance to win later.

You’re old enough to remember 64? Egads, man.

We all get old. Time stops for no one. I was 5.

And how would 11 WS stack up to 1 in an arbitrary timeline, dumbass?

there's a few of us still around.
sec

Says it all, doesn't it

"No, Cubs, No" Figured you guys would get a kick out of this.

https://youtu.be/tElCUhoEuYU

Some teams havent benefited from free draft picks like others have while still maintaining a top payroll and revenue stream in MLB.

And if having to watch one of the worst defensive teams in baseball while the ownership lines its pockets in gold isnt forcing you to watch crap baseball then I don't know what is. But there's always the Matt Cassel/Alex Smith Chiefs excuse of "Your choice." At least the Cubs had the decency to be upfront about it.

Cardinals just signed Waino for 2019.

Cardinals re-signed RHP Adam Wainwright to a one-year contract.

No word yet on the financial terms of the deal, but it figures to be pretty team-friendly. Wainwright made only eight starts for the Cardinals in 2018 due to right elbow problems and finished with a 4.46 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings. The 37-year-old holds a combined 4.77 ERA in 362 1/3 innings since the beginning of the 2016 season. 2019 will be his 14th year with St. Louis.

Unless it's for the vet minimum, fire Mo.

That literally hurts this team.

Fire Mo for ****s sake. Jeez...

I wouldn't write off the Cubs any time soon. You do realize they they don't pay dick for most of their position players.

Shit, the only guys they pay any real money from is Jason Heyward, Rizzo, and Zobrist. Everyone else is under team control or in the early stages of arbritration. Do they need to get better? Yeah. Has the money spent on starting pitching worked out? No. But this is a 95-100 win team year in and year out.

For this Cubs fan, I think they should do a little rebuild, trade a legit asset for some young pitching, but I doubt that happens.

Agreed...oops I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

He wasn't anywhere near MVP level before or after he was injured. It could be an off year, but there was a significant drop in power (13 homers in over 450 at bats). He was basically Jose Martinez. That is a good offensive player, but hardly MVP.

2018 STL Cardinals Thread
 

Yeah, as a Royals fan who admires both the Cubs and Cardinals approaches to winning, I think the doom and gloom towards the Cubs’ window is a bit short-sighted.

The Cubs definitely need to enhance their bullpen and starting pitching, but they aren’t irreconcilably behind in those spots.

I think they need to add an experienced stopper on the back end. The relief market is pretty rich this year, and I would expect the Cubs to be in play for one of Andrew Miller, Britton, Holland (who was vintage as a National), or Familia.

In the starting pitching market, there’s not a ton there. They’ll pick up Hamels’ option and start their rotation with Lester, Hamels, Hendricks, and Darvish. That leaves them hunting one spot (also have Smyly returning 18+ months out from his Tommy John).

(Edit) Hit post and realized I’d completely left Quintana out of this. He’s an factor, too, obviously.

Is one of Keuchel or Corbin possible? Hard to say as those are clear top 2s. But there are also a lot of intriguing guys I could see Epstein kicking the tires on:

Eovaldi
Harvey
Ryu
Happ
Gio Gonzalez

They also have a pair of good-but-not-as-good-as-they-used-to-be pieces in Schwarber and Russell, who are expendable. I imagine a team like the Dbacks - who seem poised for a retool if not a rebuild - might be willing to offload Greinke for something built around those guys.

Let's look at recent history...the last decade so far (because anything further back would just be too sad for you).

Since 2010, the Cubs have: 2 Division titles, One World Series Win, and Two Division Series Playoff Wins.

Since 2010, the Cards have 3 Division titles, One World Series Win, One Pennant Win, and Three Division Series Playoff Wins. All but one of those years after LaRussa.

You realize that Bryant is almost certainly going to make more than Rizzo next season through arbitration? Baez is gonna probably approach $8 million in his own right. I mean in the end if the Cubs tender all their arb guys, they'll be approaching $40 million in arbitration salaries when all is said and done. It's not as though they're still getting these kids at $600K anymore. They're still bargains, to be sure. But the difference between their pre-arb years and arb salaries is gonna suck up some of what they'd need to reinforce their starting rotation or bullpen.

Now the Cubs aren't a bunch of skinflints like DeWitt and the Cardinals so they'll think nothing of bumping near $200 million in salaries if they think it will keep them at 90-95 wins, but they can't keep whistling past the graveyard and acting like their salary structure is as healthy as it was in 2016.

And how does that comparison look if you go the past five years or project through the next five?

Unless the Cardinals find a true middle of the order bat, I have a hard time seeing them overtake the Cubs in the next 3 years.

Greinke is due $31+ million/season for the next four seasons (ages 34-37). The Diamonbacks would deal to anybody that's willing to take on his contract, IMO. That deal is just an absolute disaster and was remarkably stupid from the second it was signed. Greinke is probably going to average about 3 wins/season over the remainder of that deal and that may be generous.

Sure, how did it look right after 2016 for the Cubs. Much better than it does now. He made the point that the Cards went to shit after LaRussa, and of course that isn't the case.

The Cubs have a good nucleus (of position players) for sure, but that perpetual dynasty lineup looks much more pedestrian than one would have guessed 3 years ago. One big difference 5 years ago and now was their pipeline of youth. They have exhausted or frittered away a ton of talent and the cupboard is pretty bare. If 2018 Bryant is the norm going forward, that lineup is much different. Baez saved their asses this year. He finally came into his own.

Also, which group of pitchers projects better over the next 5 years? Mikolas, Reyes, Martinez, Flaherty, Wacha, Gomber/Gant/Hudson average about 25 years old.

The Astros are the team that is starting to look like what the Cubs thought they were going to be. And that's with Correa being disappointing as hell this year.

That said, the Astros are going to have similar issues in 2020 and if they can't get at least one more this year or next, they're gonna look back on this era as a little disappointing as well.

The major difference appears to be that when the Astros went fishing for pitching, they got guys that have come up huge for them in Verlander and Cole. The Cubs went with the longer view chasing Quintana and Darvish but both guys have been much less effective. In Hamels, they got some version of what the Astros have gotten from Verlander but it wasn't enough.

And unlike the Astros, who still have guys like Whitley, Tucker and Alvarez to fill some holes as players like Springer and Morton get too expensive to retain, the Cubs largely cleaned out their farm system over the last 3 seasons.

Are you basing that just on age or what?

He’s put up 10.3 bWAR (superior view, IMO), and 8.6 fWAR over the past two years.

Yes, he’s about to be 35. He also is a pitcher who has long succeeded with command and pitchability. Is he going to fall off a cliff to the point that he struggles to get to 3? It’s possible but I don’t see the evidence for it.

That deal was and still is crazy. He’s due $105 million for his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons (deal is up after 21). There’s a ton of risk there but also reasonable reason to see him continuing to be successful.

Even over the past 3 years, when he averaged 4 wins a season, you’re looking at a overpay. Way to go, Dave Stewart. Way to go.

Age, velocity and quality of contact. He's giving up more hard hit balls, missing fewer bats and there is absolutely a point of no return with velocity and I believe Greinke's getting nearer and nearer to that. To his credit (I guess) he seems to recognize that and essentially pitches backwards at this point in his career. I just don't see a way for that to hold up over any appreciable period of time.

Sure, he's been worth 8ish wins over the last 2 years....he was also worth about 30% less in 2018 than he was in 2017. He was a 3.5 win pitcher last year and he's out of rope w/r/t raw stuff. I'm not saying he'll fall to 3 next season, but I'm saying he may well be sitting at 1.5-2 by the end of the deal. The 3 win average would incorporate additional slow decay from where he sat last year (a noticeable dropoff from where he was the year before).

Frankly, he's another 1 mph in velocity loss away from being a potential replacement level pitcher. You've seen the studies on the correlation between velocity and effectiveness; there's really no escaping it. As velocity wanes, performance goes with it. He is, at best, a RH junk tosser at this point and sooner or later his ability to just trick guys will be gone if they can just sit there and flick away 88 mph BP fastballs until he makes a mistake.

I might be willing to take him on for half of what he's owed over the next 4 seasons, but even that carries with it a little bit of risk.

EDIT: You're correct; only 3 years left on the deal. Still nutty, but a little less risk and a little more palatable. Still at least 1/3 higher than I'd be comfortable taking on, though and probably worse than that.

Wrong. I've asked you to expound upon your belief with evidence. I don't think I've seen you back that up yet.

One big move the Cubs could make would be to trade Bryant in a couple seasons.

It all depends on how Bote develops, but they already bumped Bryant to the OF to get Bote into the lineup. He's going to have to show some adjustments at the plate because he didn't end the year as well as it started, but he had one of the best hard hit rates in baseball. If you can get 850ish OPS out of Bote I think you pretty much have to trade Bryant because there's an obvious elephant in the room with him. He's going to be 30 years old when he is eligible to become a FA and his agent is Scott Boras and there has been no progress on extension talks.

This season made retaining him a possibility.

Prior to this year, given his $12 million Arb1 salary, there was a real chance that he could see $30 million in year 4 (given the generally accepted 40/60/80 projection model that would've led to a 'market' year 4). By cratering this year, it probably suppresses his potential figures across the board. He could've seen 12/16/24/30 and is probably looking more like 12/14/19/24. Obviously still not cheap by any stretch and if he struggles with the should again those figures all drop even further.

But if his 4th year arbitration salary is $30 million, Boras pegs the contract demand at $30 million/season and either won't accept less than that or he'll slow-play the shit out of it and drag it into February. Few teams that hope to immediately contend can deal with that kind of shit or sit on that kind of hole in their budget structure.

At that point I would expect the Cubs to take whatever they'd have allocated for him and moved along.

But if his 4th year arb figure is at $24 million and that's the anchor point, there might be a way that the Cubs and Boras come together on a 6/$150 sort of deal.

Boras's goddamn pride has blown apart so many deals. Worse still is the fact that he's usually right and there's at least one clearly idiotic team out there that will blink. I'm still just pissed at the Padres for giving that ****ing guy something remotely resembling what he wanted for a POS like Hosmer. It's going to do nothing but encourage him to pull this stunt again. And again and again and again. All he needs to do is 'win' 1 of every 3 and he won't change his model.

It's my opinion that it's a superior view for pitchers. I think Fangraphs' pitcher WAR relies far too much on FIP and has a tendency/weakness in that it can overly value the WAR of pitchers who strike out a lot of hitters and have good K:BB ratios but don't have great actual results.

I would need to be able to take the actual formula they use to calculate pitcher WAR to be able to expound on it more than finding examples (like Wade Davis as a starter in 2013 as an off-the-top-of-head example) of starters struggling who have strong WARs because their FIP is good.

I don't think they've shared that secret sauce just yet.

The $35 million/year is more than I realized when I responded to you. Dave Stewart :shakes head:

If you're talking fWAR, yeah, 9-10 over the next 3 years is probably about where he'll land. I'd see him more around 11-12 in rWAR, which is what I "think" in. And I don't think it's a stretch to see that over the next 3 year in fWAR, either, considering Kyle Hendricks averaged 3.4 fWAR/year over the past 3 years with even less velocity and less in his bag of tricks.

Losing velocity hurts most guys when it goes away for good. Greinke is one of the few with the arsenal and command to compensate (if it did actually go away for good), in my opinion.

To pull it back to the original context, though, it wouldn't take Schwarber and Russell to pry him away from Arizona, so I was way off base there.

If anything the Cubs might look to trade a pitcher (Quintana/Montgomery) than trade for another pitcher. They are looking at Darvish, Lester, Hamels, Hendricks, Quintana, Montgomery, Smyly, and Chatwood for starting pitcher options next season. There's legit no room to be trading position players like Schwarber for another one.

And Schwarber was a credible OFer this year.

dWAR be damned - I would never ever EVER trust him past the 6th inning of a playoff game if I had a lead, but he's not a complete embarrassment out there in the Jose Martinez fashion.

I just don't see Schwarber as surpurflous at this point - y'all need the guy and you need him to be some approximation of what he was before the ASB (the guy after the ASB wasn't terribly useful). He's a second source of lefty run-production in the lineup and counting on Heyward to be that guy is a fools errand. I expect Rizzo rebounds a bit next season but you can't just do what the Cardinals did and have a single halfway decent lefty in your lineup.

I guess if you just stuck Happ out there full-time, he could end up being that guy given his splits as a switch hitter. But with Russell's issues, there's a chance he ends up being moved back to 2b. If so, you run into less of a lefty/righty issue and more of a 'who the hell plays LF for us' issue.

Bote to 3b and Bryant to LF fixes that question, I suppose. But I'd be reluctant to trust exactly what he is just yet. He was a fine hitter in the minors but nothing more than...fine. Give him a starters job and if you're lucky he's David Freese. Freese was, post-season notwithstanding....fine. And like Freese, Bote also has a bit of that 'older prospect' thing to him that makes you wonder how well he'll hold up; Freese was actually a significantly more accomplished minor league hitter than Bote was. I'm not sure how eager I'd be to trade away Schwarber to make a hole on the IF for 'Freese Light'.

Cubs have some questions and some potential answers but if I'm them, I don't move Schwarber until the trade deadline if someone ends up proving capable of replacing him out there.

The whole team outside of Rizzo and Baez was pretty embarrassing at the plate. The team started adopting the Chili Davis method of hitting and its the same method that murdered the Red Sox offense. The Cubs became the #1 team in ground ball rate at near 50%. All season the Cubs were struggling to get consistent offense beyond 2 or 3 games but in the 2nd half it was exceptionally pathetic.

Thankfully the Cubs didn't wait around 3 years and canned Chili yesterday.

I honestly dont imagine a scenario in which Happ is on this team next year. I don't buy into this whole flexibility bullshit too much. The guy can't hit anything above the belt. He's hours late on any high fastball. He's not a particularly good fielder either, just average. He was called up because of injuries and for some ****ing reason is still on the team when he doesn't fit.

He was a top 30 prospect when he was called up and showed potential in his first season so why wasnt he traded? Now all he did was lower his value by INCREASING his strikeout rate by 5% since last year. He also increased his walk rate by 6%. He simply stopped ****ing swinging.

Oh man - hitting groundballs with little authority as a preferred approach?

I'll bet Jason Heyward was as hard as a diamond in an ice storm learning from that guy...

In closing - **** Jason Heyward.

Ironically, the Cubs best hitter with RISP was Heyward with a .324/.423/.435 batting line in 131 PA.