Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907841)

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull Haglund deformity away from $20M per on the bench.

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 13907830)

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 13908000)

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908012)

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Folloeing year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady has to for most of his years.

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908019)

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908043)

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 13907991)

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 13907994)

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 13908017)

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

Originally Posted by wazu (Post 13908067)

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.