When you're constantly taking the first 3 pitches and refuse to do anything other than hit the ball into the teeth of the shift because you're the most predictable at-bat in baseball, that's not bad luck.

Carpenter has an .069 BA with a 3 ball count. He has an .068 BA with a 2 strike count (and a shocking .265 OPS). He is, objectively, a terrible hitter late in counts right now. And yet he keeps going up there and taking passive approaches while letting pitchers dictate to him how the AB is gonna go.

When they can get ahead in the count on you or even stay even to two strikes, they're going to throw the ball where they want to throw it and they're going to set you up to hit it exactly where they want you to hit it in the process.

This isn't bad luck, regardless of how badly Girsch and Mabry want you to believe it. And that whole 'keep doing what you're doing' thing came from their conversation as relayed by Carpenter, who is objectively stupid. Carpenter probably only understood half of what he heard anyway and used it as a perfect opportunity for confirmation bias.

This isn't bad luck - it's abysmally bad offense. Carpenter's not going to just snap out of this because he wants to. Pitchers simply do not fear him because he's given them no reason to. He's as predictable as the sunrise so they know exactly how to handle him. And they're going to continue to do so. The dude is swinging at less than half the pitches he sees in the strike zone. That's unbelievable. He's such a comfortable at-bat for pitchers because they can command the entire process. A lot of pitchers hate the shift because they can't throw to certain parts of the zone without the shift biting them in the ass. With Carpenter it doesn't matter - shift him into RF and then throw him a pitch on the outer 1/3...who cares? He's not gonna swing at it anyway. Get your free strike and set up the AB to eventually throw him inside and have him 'make hard contact' right where someone's standing. Because that's where you put them.

You can continue to parrot the company line regarding tough luck and poor strike zones (though his zone is similar to most lefties and not as bad as someone like Jose Ramirez, who's still hitting because he's not a 1-trick pony), but his zone is the same as it's been for 3 years. Time to stop bitching about it and do something.

But him and Matheny lack the combined processing power for simple addition so I wouldn't expect anything revolutionary. Sadly, it won't matter either way. Matheny only knows accountability as it relates to non Mike Guys so Carpenter will be out there killing rallies day after day after day. But fortunately he's an aces defender so we'll keep him out there for the leather...

Inevitably, probably so.

They will get at least 1 very good prospect in return without a doubt. Otherwise the Orioles will give him a QO and the end of the year and take the Comp A draft pick in return.

It's funny you think no one is going to overpay at the deadline when it happens EVERY year.

That’s what I’m thinking they do. They’ve really butchered the whole situation.

Somewhat similar to Harper.

Would the cubs be in On manny or are they just waiting for Harper this offseason

The Dodgers are doing everything in their power to re-set the luxury tax and are not far under it right now. Moreover they have some starting pitching issues.

If they trade for Machado, they'd have to worry about how his pro-rated $16 million salary impacts their ability to stay under the cap. I believe it means they'd have to wait until right up to the trade deadline (and may still need to pare a little off, though I can't find the exact math). And again, that's presuming that their most pressing need isn't actually starting pitching which would also push them towards the tax thresshold.

Yes, there's a good chance the Dodgers make a move on Machado, but there's also a window for the Cardinals to strike earlier because the Dodgers are trying to get some of that salary out of the way. The Dodgers could ask the Orioles to assume some but that's just gonna continue raising the prospect ante.

As for your inane babblings w/r/t Martinez - if the Cardinals offered Flaherty, Bader and Hudson for Machado - the Orioles would absolutely consider it. They're not getting an appreciably better offer from anyone than that. No, it's not Carlos Martinez or bust.

I'd float them Weaver, Wacha, Bader and Martinez to see if they'd bite. Yes, they're stuck with Chris Davis - what's that have to do with Jose Martinez? That guy isn't a 1b. He's a DH and they have Trumbo with 1 year left on his deal and some of the worst DH production in baseball right now. Martinez also has 5 years of control left. They'd probably prefer more ceiling in their OFer so they'd want O'Neill instead. {shrug}

There's a deal to be made in there somewhere. We don't all have systems with middle relievers and 5th OFers as our top prospects. Theo scorched the damn earth in your minors. He had sound cause but holy lord that system is barren.

Never said it was Carlos Martinez or bust. I would never expect someone to offer a Carlos Martinez for Machado given the situation.

Knowing he’s gonna walk straight to the Bronx after the season, I just don’t see the cards moving anything for him. I’m guessing they’re still raw from the heyward deal

Of course they will - they'll get a top 50, a top 100 and possibly a young major leaguer (or at least a prime-years pitcher with another year or two of control). Nobody's saying they're gonna get the JD Martinez poo poo platter of organizational depth (if that's what you're wanting to pay, Josh Donaldson should be the target).

But the Cardinals can do that fairly easily and they can do that with the pieces the Orioles actually want - starting pitching and OFers. I am not now and have never been a Luke Weaver guy, but he has roughly similar value to Flaherty and Flaherty is in that 20-40 range depending on the prospects lists you look at (Weaver has graduated). O'Neill's ranges are all over the map but he can be seen in that 70-80 range pretty fairly and has come out hot this year.

Start with those 2 and your 3rd piece is pretty easy to find a way to make work.

This isn't the hard sell you're trying to make it.

I don’t think they’ll get that with it being so known he’s leaving.

I’m likely wrong though

Here's the question though....is he?

He doesn't want to move to 3b. And Didi Gregorious is in the midst of a no-shit MVP caliber season that's supported by some genuine changes in approach that could suggest a new true talent level.

Andujar has a plus hit tool and plus raw power at 3b. Torres is among the more highly regarded infield prospects in the sport.

I'm not saying that the Yankees can't make a move if they get him, but they might just not feel a desperate need. And I can't imagine the reaction to Stanton's struggles have been all that welcoming to him.

I'm not saying ignore the Yankees - yeah, they're a scary prospect. But I am saying that I don't think it's a truly foregone conclusion. And if you want a chance to make that a difficult decision for him, you're not going to do it with him in a strictly FA setting.

But if you get him in here, make him part of the team and immerse him in the environment. Maybe he loves playing with guys like Ozuna, Martinez and Fowler (hell, dude might like Pham - who knows?). It's truly the only shot the Cardinals have at him. He's a 25 yr old superstar we can give up a young pitcher with the build of a 17 yr old and a prospect or two to give ourselves a chance at sending him to the Hall with a redbird on his hat.

Take the damn chance. He'll get in that dugout, look down the bench and see his teammates and Mike Mathe....

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu*******.

Never said it was a hard sell.

BRC asked if the players he named would get a deal for Machado done and O.City is acting like the Orioles wont get jack shit for a guy that will get them a 1st round draft pick with a trade or not.

I dont see why the Orioles would have any interest in Jose Martinez. You can argue that Jose Martinez will be there longer than Trumbo, but I don't believe that Chris Davis is in their long term plans at 1B. I expect him to be hitting DH for them after Trumbo makes his exit.

If Chris Davis continues on this arc, he'll simply be cut and Angelos will eat the money. The dude's looking less and less like a major leaguer. His contract is actually worse than Pujols at this point, IMO.

As for Trumbo - the Orioles are losing a couple OFer as well next year and they've played Trumbo in left at times. But what Martinez provides over Trumbo (and Davis) is a completely different skill-set that their lineup simply doesn't have and is frankly difficult to acquire.

If they see Martinez as an .800 OPS guy then you're right - they're not going to move a ton to get him and he wouldn't have a great deal of value to them. But if they see a guy that can get to Camden and put up an .850+ with genuinely strong bat/ball skills, that's a different creature. That's something they don't actually have much of in that lineup.

For everything Martinez isn't (like...an actual baseball player), he is a polished, professional hitter. And his stroke would wreck shit in Baltimore. There's a chance for him to be a significant asset for them.

Don't know for sure but I woudl do that in a heart beat. We have tons of OF prospects and another catcher in the wings.

If they wanna do that i say go for it. It's the most likely path to a superstar player they're gonna get.

I just think they're to afraid to do it.

If Gyorko is hitting the ball so much better than Carpenter right now, why is his exit velocity the exact same and his hard hit percentage worse?

If the problem is him hitting into the teeth of the shift, why is his pull percentage lower than the last two years?

No one seemed to have a problem with him having a 48.1% pull rate in 2016, but now his 44.6% rate is problematic?

Is Bryce Harper suddenly a dogshit hitter because he has a .143 BABIP over the last two weeks?

Maybe it's just a small sample size.

Probably.

It's been a chickenshit organization since LaRussa left and there was nobody to put pressure on DeWitt. Mozeliak is a ****ing bag man; a spineless company guy who's not going to go into DeWitt's office and demand he trade for Mark McGwire. And Mike Matheny isn't clever enough to start sending Adam Kennedy into the OF for the last 2 weeks of a lost season in order to send a message to the front office.

And since Mozeliak has set fire to about $50 million on replacement level players this season (and last) and Mike Matheny probably needs an assistant to help him tie his shoes, they both likely lack the organizational capital to demand aggressive moves anyway.

Yeah, a 5th of the season is just a blink of an eye.

So what's your bet? How long do you think he's gonna do absolutely nothing before he turns it on again? And what do you suppose that will look like when he does?

He's not going to be this shitty all year (nobody has ever been this shitty all year), but he's not going to suddenly start smoking liners into gaps either.

Starting from this point forward I'm betting he still manages a WRC+ of maybe 100 (and it will be almost exclusively walk-fueled since that's all he tries to do these days). And he'll combine that with shitty defense at positions he shouldn't be playing anyway.

My preference would be for Carpenter to figure it out, get himself to at least some playable version of the good Carpenter and ship Martinez out so we can field an actual major league caliber defense (and we could really use Carpenter's LH stick). The ability of this team to do damage in the post-season with Carpenter and Martinez out there defensively is effectively nill. To my eyes, that's at worst a 1b platoon. But he's doubling down on this super-patient approach of his and I don't think that's going to pull him out of it.

Like I said - ambush guys for 2-3 weeks and try to get them off kilter. Try to get some confidence back and quit going up there begging for walks. Do something other than stare at 3 pitches and then hit the ball where people are standing.

Not too worried about the Cubs minors. Their roster is pretty much set for the next 3-4 years with young players for better or worse. I wish he would have gone more scorched earth and made a move for Christian Yelich. He fit what this team needed and it was apparently too obvious.

Theo brought a WS so I can't be mad but him not trading Soler after the 2015 playoffs and holding onto Ian Happ when he has no position on the field and is now tanking harder than Jason Heyward are 2 pretty devastating long term decisions.

At least Schwarber changed his physique and isn't an embarrassment in the outfield so far this year. Although, he did recently feed the Cardinals one of their wins in their recent sweep of the Cubs by lazily going after a fly ball that ended up scoring 2 runs.

I was at that game. I was dumbfounded that he let that ball get down. I actually wonder if they could've sent out Schwarber instead of Jimenez in that Quintana deal. Long-term I think they'd be better off for it and it might not hurt them too badly in the near term (would give Happ someplace to play). Then again, Maddon had massacred his value by that point so maybe not.

I'm starting to get a little worried that Heyward might just talk himself into opting out, though. He's looked decent every time I've seen him this year (though maybe he just tortures the Cardinals). I think he only made one truly bad out in that series; most of the time he struck the ball well. If my memory serves, his deferred money accelerates into 2019 if he opts out so that's a pretty solid immediate incentive to test the market if he thinks it would yield anything approaching his present deal.

Seems extremely unlikely, but not as impossible as it did 2 months ago...

Whether he opts out or not I dont see Heyward being with the Cubs next year. His deal was frontloaded so with just a little cash thrown in with the deal he shouldn't be too hard to unload. That's assuming they throw the kitchen sink at Harper and go all in for the next 4 years before Bryant leaves and Harper opts out of the contract for a new pay day.

I don't think Heyward gets anywhere near what his current deal pays him on the open market. If he opts out, he would have to put together a better offensive season than he has the past 4 years in order to even come close.

If Heyward opted out he would get his salary for the 2019 season immediately from his deferred signing bonus.

What would effectively be left would be 4 years and $86 million. It would just depend on the years, but I could see a team offering more over the life of a contract. He'll still be only 29 years old. He would need to at least be an average hitter for him to do it and it probably wouldn't happen til after next season, imo. This next off season is a bit too crowded with better players. For the '19-'20 FA he'll be competing with just Ozuna for the most part.

That is too much. That is too much for a rental. Bader/A. Garcia/Mercado/O'Neill alone would be where I would start. That is where we have depth.

I wish I could believe he will improve drastically, and I get the balls in play theory that could swing more towards his norms. However, it isn't just his offense that has gone south, he is now a huge defensive downgrade anywhere but first, and that is only because the only other option is Martinez who is barely passable.

Give him at bats to get him out of his funk, but not at the expense of shelving your hottest hitters. If he takes off in limited duties then you can rethink what your best lineup should be.

Boom

Matheny is a dumbass. If Gyrko sits another game in this series he needs to be fired immediately for gross Incomptence.

Hrabosky now calling Matheny out.

on the broadcast? :eek:

Having to watch the SD broadcast.

Did i ever tell you guys about how i saw Luke Weaver's first career start?

We beat the cubs on a randall grichuk grand slam

Weaver grew up in the area where l live. Some buddies down here are really into local baseball. They said when we drafted him that he was the best pitcher they ever saw in this area and at college.

He's gonna be a good one. A strikeout pitcher.. he went like 7-2 with 70+ ks last year

Just put Wainwright out to pasture. This is sad.

5 walks with no outs in the 3rd throwing in the mid 80’s. Hate to say it, but Waino looks like toast. He doesn’t look right. Some of those “change ups” were fastballs.

Mother****ing meathead of a manager.

Yes but when it’s clear that a player doesn’t have it, it’s the managers fault for leaving him in.

It might take this offense a month to score 2 runs.

Wainwright needs to go to the big pitcher pasture in the sky.

Flaherty or Gant need to be starting.

Edited to add:I don't even know if you can blame Matheny at this point. He's going to ride Wainwright until the end, rightly or wrongly. If/when he's moved to the BP or off the roster, you're going to have different players in the clubhouse complain about him no longer starting.

Only way to resolve this problem is to place Wainwright on the 60 day DL, have him ready in September, and let him ride off into the sunset.

Absolutely.

Well, we know who he learned it from. Remember the last days of McGwire when he was an absolute, guaranteed out and LaRussa wouldn't bench him? :banghead:

Good at bat, Wong.

I love Waino. The curveball to Beltran will forever live in Cardinals lore. He was on the mound when l got to see my team win a WS. But..... that was 2006. Last time I checked a calender it was 2018. No one cheats Father Time. It’s coming for us all.

Waino should volunteer to go to the bullpen for the good of the team. The competitor may still exist inside of him but the physical tools don’t. He’s done.

Again, I love Waino but he should not start another game for the MLB Cardinals, ever. Flaherty should take his spot in the rotation.

And Waino headed back to STL for elbow pain and examination. I’m sure there is a stint on the DL coming.

Thank god.

now we need Fowler and Carp to get on the DL somehow, someway and get themselves back on track.

You can’t be sitting Bader and Gyrko who are both hot now for players hitting <.160.

Yes, that was brutal to watch as well.

If I had the choice of one of them returning to form it would be Fowler. We have 3 more years we are tied to him after this one. Carpenter we are on the hook for next year with a club option after that one. Ideally both would figure it out, but neither show signs right now.

Carp needs to use the inside out swing and take some balls to left field. After getting some of those free hits they are giving him, maybe they will pull back the extreme shift he hits into every AB.

Fowler needs to quit swinging at the curve, slider inside and low, off the plate. He cant do anything with that pitch even if he makes contact.

That was a weird year, though.

Remember, McGwire was hurt to start the year and in July he was doing standard McGwire stuff - lots of HRs and walks. He looked like he was rounding into shape and had found a way to play with the foot as a new normal. McGwire had come up huge when David Wells broke Drew's hand and with Drew coming back at the beginning of August and a need for pitching, the Lankford/Williams trade got made. And with the available information, that deal made all the sense in the world (and Williams was huge for us).

LaRussa had benched McGwire in 2000 when he had Clark. In September and the post-season, McGwire was a pinch hitter because Clark was a better option.

But in August and September of 2001 - who was your better option? Bonilla, Robinson and Paquette were your only answers, right? Pujols had essentially moved full-time to the OF after Polanco had seized 3b.

I mean I guess there's an argument in favor of those guys. Pujols could've gone to 1b and Robinson could've taken over in LF. Your defense is improve that way (and LaRussa, to his credit, did a fair amount of late-inning defensive substitutions to that effect). Paquette would've been over-exposed in a heartbeat, IMO (he had fewer than 300 major league ABs after that season before being out of baseball altogether). Bonilla just sucked.

The major difference is that the 2001 squad didn't have the depth that this one has. It didn't have a clearly better plan B. And with LaRussa/McGwire you can point to an instance the year prior of him being willing to bench Mac when he thought he had a viable alternative. You can't do that with Matheny.

I guess Matheny has a similar argument on his IF right now. I personally would let Wong fight through it and find his form while taking the defensive improvement but the argument is similar to what could've been made for McGwire over Kerry Robinson. And as for Fowler, Matheny can point to Dexter's slow start last year as justification for letting him find his swing this year. Fowler really was critically important to our offense last season when he got it going.

I do think a DL stint for Fowler and Carpenter should be in order, though. I just can't agree with "keep doing what you're doing" with these guys. They're fighting it something awful and if you can't get a change in approach at the plate, perhaps a DL stint gets them out of their own heads.

players like Waino and McGuire have earned the right to end their careers however they want. But, I’d wish they’d see how they have deteriorated. Waino is going to be a Cardinal legend. Deserving of the red jacket. Just finish out this year with some class. If you get better, volunteer to go to the pen. Work clean up duty until proving your the Waino of old so you don’t hurt the team.

Maybe I'm way off here, but why is Waino such a Cardinal Legend?

He is top 5 in wins and #6 in WAR in STL pitching history.

He is also top 5 in SO per 9 innings if you can believe that.

The young Waino was nasty.

#7 in Innings pitched as well.

Shit here is the list.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...rs_pitch.shtml

Well, I mean that's gonna happen just with the amount of time he's pitched in STL.

Don't get me wrong, he's been a good Cardinal. Had the great moments as a closer in 06.

But other than that, I don't exactly remember him being a playoff monster or whatever.

Maybe the last 4 or 5 years have me off kilter.

curveball to Beltran (who had killed us in the playoffs for years)with bases loaded that sent us to the first WS in 25 years.

On the mound deservedly when we won the 2006 World Series. Without him stepping up when Izzy flamed our, there is no WS championship that year.

If you look at that list he is top 10 in almost every stat and when you are talking SO/per 9 etc...that's not a longevity stat.

Actually as average as he has been for years it hurts his overall stats in some ways. Pretty impressive he is still in the top 10 on many of those lists.

Chris Carpenter is on many of those lists too even with all the injuries. Miss that guy.

I remember that like it was yesterday.

Also on the longevity thing, people forget how good you have to be for how long just to stay with a single team this long as a starting pitcher.

SO/9 isn't a bad stat but just looking at who he's with there, eh.

I like Waino, and his last 5 years taints my memory of him I'm sure, but he's really only had like 5 really good seasons out of 13.

He's been a good Cardinal. Probably get into the Cardinals HOF, even though I don't think he's been near the player some of the others in there have.

The stretch from about 08-13 was pretty legit.

It's been a similar thing with Pujols as well. He's fallen so hard, it's hard to remember what he was. I hate that guys hang on that long.

I remember being really pissed when he went to Anaheim. Now, not so much.

l could understand Pujols hanging around situation a little better. He had a chance at HOF history, 600 home runs and 3000 hits.

We got to see the best 11 years a baseball player has ever had. And he was on our team. When he comes back to Bush next year, he deserves the best and loudest reception any player has ever received.

I appreciate what he did in STL.

But he also chose to leave.

it was just business. He still kept his charity work going in the community. He stays either Molina or Waino walks in their prime. It worked out well for us.

Yep. We got the best years of his career, and the idiot **** Angels paid for them.

He's still a .304 career hitter, 620/3000/1900 rbi he's still one of the all time greats.

Good Lord almighty Carp and Fowler are just bad.

Factually, no hyperbole, currently the worst two hitters in baseball.:eek:

With the pitcher's spot, Perez and Kolten Wong also biting ass, the Cardinals are effectively spotting their opposition 15 outs/game.

It's staggering that they've managed to win as many as they have.

Here's the lineup:

Tommy Pham, CF
Matt Carpenter, 1B
Jose Martinez, DH
Marcell Ozuna, LF
Jedd Gyorko, 3B
Paul DeJong, SS
Harrison Bader, RF
Kolten Wong, 2B
Carson Kelly, C

WTF is the worst hitter in baseball doing batting 2nd? You want to “get him going”? I understand that. Carp is not the worst hitter in the game. But, Bader is hot with speed. He should be batting 2nd. Let Carp get his act together down with Kelly in the lineup.


Flaherty will finally get a MLB start.:clap:

lol

Hot garbage offense. Starting pitching has been great. Bullpen has been ok. Since Matheny is bulletproof at least fire Mabry. Yuck!!

Ok maybe I lied about the bullpen. Starting pitching is the only thing good.

Carp with two strikeouts and two lazy fly balls. That’s what we have seen all year. 1/4 of the season is over. It’s way past time to at least move him down the lineup. Same with Ozuna. Change something for crissakes.

Flaherty looked fantastic. He’s not going back to AAA and waste innings. Reyes is looking good so far also.

Statistically, Ozuna has been 1 of our better hitters as of late but his strikeouts are concerning. If Pham isn’t hitting the offense just sucks right now. Bader has played ok but I’m not expecting him to carry an offense. Mabry needs to go if only to make a change.

Let Willie take over or anyone else but just get Mabry the hell out of the organization.

Mabry is BFF with Matheny. Dewitt loves Matheny. Thats not going to happen. :sulk:

This team is beyond boring to watch, no fun at all.

Holy hell, Matheny has Fowler hitting 5th, Carpenter 7th and Perez 9th. 1-4 better put up some crooked numbers or they're getting blanked.

:eek: WTF?

Gawd l hate this manager.

Lynn has a 7.34 ERA, I bet we get 1 run off him in 6 innings.

We are gonna make Lynn look like an all star.

Also, Gregerson to the DL

you know it. :facepalm: